Here’s a look at the statistical losses for NIU. The big one is Sutton Smith, but they’ll miss a couple of other players.

Left Early:

DE Sutton Smith- Left early for the NFL (drafted in the 6th round by Pittsburgh). He had 139 tackles, 58.5 TFL, and 30 sacks in basically 2 years (his FR year was 15/2/1 of those). Those are CRAZY numbers, and he was a problem for Utah last year (8 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 2 sacks)

Transferred Out:

The Huskies lost several players to transfer, including the following starters:

WR Fotis Kokosioulis (to FCS)- Not a starting WR, but did have some kick return stats, returning 9 for 151 (16.8 ypr average)

OT Ryan Roberts (to FSU)- Started 8 games at RT in 2017, and a couple last year. Played in 36 games at RT.

Won’t play this week because they’re hurt:

LB Lance Deveaux- I’m not sure when they expect him back, but he didn’t play last week. SR had 100 tackles the past three years, plus 6 TFL and 2 sacks. Was their #4 leading tackler last year (67 tackles).

Left because they’re out of eligibility:

WR DJ Brown- Top WR in terms of catches last year, is 108/952/8 career (8.8 ypc) and was 57/496/5 last year (8.7 ypc). Also ran for 58/294 (5.1 ypc) with 3 TDs in his career.

TE Dale Brown- Blocking TE only started one game last year. No catches.

CB Jalen Embry- Starting CB had 1 start in 2017 and 13 last year. 88 tackles, 6.5 TFL, and 11 PBU in 2 years at NIU. Had 6 tackles last year against Utah.

K Andrew Gantz- Was perfect (29/29) on XP last year, and went 13/18 (72%) on FG. Solid.

TE Ty Harmston- Was a blocking TE until 2018, when he made 11/97 catches (8.8 ypc) with a TD.

CB Tifonte Hunt- Had 30 tackles, 0.5 TFL, and 2 PBU in his only real season last year. Just 1 tackles against Utah last year.

OT Max Scharping- Dude was a beast at LT, drafted in the 2nd round by the Texans. 4-year starter started 53 consecutive games and every single offensive snap of 2018. He’s a big loss.

C Luke Shively- 3-year starter started 39 games at C.

CB Albert Smalls- Started last year in the Utah game but got hurt in game 3 and was out for the season. Had about 20 starts over 4 years. Had 111 tackles, 2 TFL, 4 INT, and 20 PBU over 4 years. Played in the Utah game, but had limited stats (1 tackle)

CB Maalik Todd- Backup CB had 5 tackles in his career.

WR Jauan Wesley- #2 WR in terms of catches, #1 in yards last year. Transfer from IA ST had 54/619 (11.5 ypc) with 2 TD last year. NIU career was 64/869 (13.6 ypc) for 4 TD, total career was 104/1277 (12.3 ypc) with 6 TD.

DE Josh Corcoran- The other side from Smith, had 31 tackles, 12.5 TFL and 10 sacks last year, and has 91/27.5/16.5 career (plus 1 INT, 1 FF, and 1 PBU). Didn’t play in the Utah game last year (did have 2 TFL and 2 sacks against BYU though).

The breakdown from last year’s production is as follows:

NIU lost none of their passing from last year, as Childers is back (but demoted to backup behind Bowers)

They lose just about 4% of their rushing yards (109/2430), 4% of their carries (22/584) and 6% (1/17) of their TDs.

They lose 56% of their receiving yards (1212/2175), 52% of their catches (122/236), and 53% of their receiving TDs (8/15). This is the big loss on offense, along with three starting OL.

On defense (only counting the top 21 tacklers because those 21 all have double-digit tackles) their top 3 tacklers (Jones-Davis, Pugh, and Williams) are back, but they still lost some on that side of the ball:

They lost 27% of their tackles (249/917)

45% of their TFL (49/110)

56% of their sacks (27/48). They lost more sacks than BYU had all last year (25).

0% of their INT (0/8, didn’t need the calculator for this one)

33% of their PD (13/39)

This is a much more experienced team than the one Utah saw last week. They have to travel a long way, and we beat a better version of this team last year, but they should not be a pushover. Returning QB, all their RBs, and most of their defense, except for the DEs. Utah should be able to hit the edges and have time to pass, but the middle of this defense should be quite stout (although nobody really stops Moss).

What does NIU have coming back?

Returning 2018 NIU starters:

QB Marcus Childers- SO Childers didn’t start last week (Bowers did, who I’ll talk about below), but he started all of last year, and 8 games as a FR in 2017. His stats are not great: 386/662 (58.3%) for 3849 with 31 TD and 15 INT. He was all of NIU’s real passing yards and attempts last year (Brown, Wesley, Thompson, and Ference all had attempts, but they went 2/4 for 0 combined yards with one 5-yard pass and one pass for a loss of 5 yards). Childers also was their #2 rusher, with 194 attempts for 531 yards (2.7 ypc) and 6 TDs.

RB Tre Harbison- The JR was NIU’s leading rusher last year, with 206/1034 with 5 TD. He also caught 7 passes for 33 yards. He played a little as a FR, and was 1 yard short of 100 on 23 carries last week. Career he’s 284/1423 (5 ypc) with 8 TD and 11 receptions for 101 yards. We kept him pretty bottled up last year, with 13 carries for 63 yards (4.8 ypc) and 0 TDs.RB Jones. The SR was NIU’s #3 rusher last year in carries (95) and yards (527) but had the best YPC average (5.5) and 4 TD. He had 2 carries last week for 2 yards, but played a little bit as a SO and FR in relief. Career he’s got 188/988 (5.3 ypc) for 8 TDs. He had 7/36 (5.1 ypc) against Utah last year.

RB Jordan Nettles- The SO was NIU’s least effective RB last year (they had a WR who got the ball on sweeps, but he’s not a RB and he’s gone now), but he was a FR so that’s expected. He went 61/217 (3.6 ypc) and 0 TDs. He’s smaller (5’8”, 180) so is more of a slasher (think a poor man’s TJ Green). He also had 2 carries for 2 yards last week, so his career numbers are 63/219/0. He redshirted last year and had 0 carries, so he didn’t play against Utah (or if he did, they didn’t give him the ball).

WR Spencer Tears- The JR was the #3 WR in receptions (40) and yards (422) last year, but was #2 in TDs (4). Had only 1 catch last week for -3 yards, so his career numbers are 85/950 (11.2 ypc) with 8 TD. Was suspended for the Utah game last year, so no stats against us.

WR Cole Tucker- The SO had 18/156 last year (8.7 ypc). That’s 4th in both receptions and yards. 8.7 ypc is a pretty poor average, but again, he was a FR so deserves a little slack. Played last week and had 3/29 (9.7 ypc), so he appears to be improving. Career then he’s 21/156 (8.8 ypc). Didn’t have a stat against Utah.

WR Dennis Robinson- The SO is their jump ball guy (6’5”, 225). Had 15/139 (9.3 ypc) with 1 TD last year, and caught 2/12 last week. Career then he’s 17/151 (8.9 ypc) with 1 TD. Didn’t play against Utah.

TE Mitchell Brinkman- The JR played 4 games last year to redshirt, but played as a SO too, and got a couple of games as a FR, including 1 start. Last year’s stats aren’t much (4/51 for 12.8 ypc), but again, he only played in 4 games to preserve his RS. Played last week (4/51). Career he’s 15/181 (12.1 ypc) with 2 TD. Didn’t record a stat against Utah, so I don’t know if that was one of the games he played.

TE Corey Lersch- The JR didn’t start last year, but had 6/65 (10.8) with 2 TD in his only year as a TE. Played last week but didn’t record a stat. He’s not that tall (6’3”) but is very thick (240).

OL Isaac Hawn- JR started 2 games at RT last year and 4 the year before. Has been injured but is expected to start. Listed at 6’6”, 310.

OL Benn Olson- JR has only 1 start (in the bowl game in 2017 at G), but has backed up C and G and played in 13 games the past 2 years.

OL Brayden Patton- 6’5”, 300-lb JR started 8 games at G last year and played in 14. No starts before that.

OL Christopher Perez, Jr- 6’1”, 295-lb SR was a JUCO transfer who started 11 games at G last year.

OL Jordan Steckler- 6’5”, 305-lb SR has started 30 games over the last 3 seasons at G and T and will probably be starting at LT for NIU today.

OL Nathan Veloz- 6’5”, 320-lb SR started 22 games at G the past two seasons. Based on his height and experience, I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s at RT today, but I didn’t check the film from last week to see where he was lining up.

Now for the defense:

DT Jack Heflin- 6’4”, 310-lb JR had 33 tackles, 8 TFL and 6 sacks last year. He was decent last week too, with 4 tackles and 1.5 TFL. Career he’s 45/10.5/6. Had just 1 tackle against Utah last year.

DT Marcus Kelly- 6’4”, 275-lb SR has rotated in at DT with a couple starts. He had 15 tackles last year, and 1 last week, so his career numbers are 18 tackles. Not a game-changer, but may start or see time in rotation.

DT Weston Kramer- The 6’1”, 290-lb JR started 13 games last year at DT. Went 38 tackles, 4 TFL, 1.5 sacks last year. Career he’s 60/7/2.5, including 3 last week. Had 2 tackles, 1.5 TFL, and 1 sack last year against Utah, so I’m sure the OL will have some film room payback that they owe him (especially with both DEs being new).

DT Ben LeRoy- The 6’3”, 285-lb SR started 9 games last year and 12 the year before. Had 34 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1.5 sacks last year and has 79/10/4.5 career. Had 3 tackles last year against Utah.

DE Matt Lorbeck- The 6’4”, 250-lb JR started 3 games last year, including the Utah game. Had 21 tackles, 6.5 TFL, and 3.5 sacks last year in rotational work (plus the 3 starts). Career (including 3 tackles last week), he’s got 31/6.5/3.5. Had a good game against Utah last year (4 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 sack), so he’s going to be on the list for the OL too.

DE Quintin Wynne- The 6’1”, 240-lb SR didn’t start because he was #2 behind Smith, but played quite a bit. Had 26 tackles, 7.5 TFL, and 1 sack last year. Career (including 2/1/1 last week), he’s 48/11/4. Also had a good game against Utah last year (4 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack). Watch for the Utah OL to be pissed about that game last year.

LB Lance Deveaux, Jr- The SR went 67/5/2 last year, 100/6/2 career. Last year was his first full year as a starter. Had 4 tackles against Utah last year.

LB Antonio Jones-Davis- Last year’s returning tackler, the SR had 130/14.5/4 last year. Career he’s 187/19/5 plus 7 PBU and 2 FR. Had 5 tackles against Utah last year. He’s a good and experienced LB.

LB Kyle Pugh- The SR was #2 in tackles last year, had 106/5/1.5. Career he’s 146/7.5/1.5. Played against Utah, had 6 tackles and 1 TFL.

This is a good and experienced LB crew. Moss is better, but unlike BYU, NIU has some linebackers ready to go.

CB Devin Haney- Started 1 game as a FR last year. 3 tackles.

CB Jalen McKie- Started 2 games as a FR last year. 26 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 1 sack plus 2 INT and 2 PBU last year. Also had an INT last week. He’s a good corner, but very small (listed at 5’8” and that looks like a lie). Expect Utah to try and match him up against our taller WR, or to pick on Haney.

The Transfers

The QB is the one that matters.

SR Ross Bowers- The Cal transfer started in 2017 as a SO, going 272/461 (59%) for 3039 yards with 18 TDs and 12 INT. He lost the starting job last season and transferred. Played last week and looked decent (20/33 for 60.6% with 2 TD and 1 INT), but Utah’s D is a significant step up from Illinois State’s.

So, DE is a question mark but they have some experience there. DT and LB should be a strength. The secondary? Expect the game plan to be pass-pass-pass this week, because that secondary is untested and young.