Statistically Speaking: Weber State at Utah
Stop. Before you read this step outside and take a deep breath. I'll wait.
Feel that football season in the air? Of course you do.
The Utes ended last season on a high note, trouncing WVU, and the hype has just been building from there--improvement from established stars, exciting new faces on campus, the return of Britain Covey, and on and on--and now we finally get to see them play for real. The opening day opponent doesn't match the hype of the season, but Weber State is one of the best teams in their subdivision, and likely playoff-bound.
Over the last three years, playoff-bound FCS teams played 31 FBS foes, running the gamut between the worst teams in the country and the best. The FCS team won 10 (32%) of those games, but there is a lot more to pull from the data. Their performances in those games give us some insight about what to expect from FCS foes. These teams performed about 12 points worse than an average FBS team would have--about as well as BYU performed in 2017. No really, that's the closest corollary, Ute fans are just that lucky. BYU has been a national championship contender after all--just playing in the wrong subdivision.
That's about what you'd expect--the best FCS teams are among the bottom third or so of the FBS, on average. What's really unique about these games are the wild swings in performance--twenty point losses to some of the FBS' worst teams, close victories against squads who would wind up in the top 25. Does that uncertainty mean that Utah has more of a chance to lose this game than you might expect? Not this year.
This is what you want to see in a paycheck game, but the model reminds us that even for a team as good as the Utes may be this year, disaster is always lurking in the corner against a quality FCS opponent. These numbers are more about what we don't know than what we do, both about Weber State and the Utes. The best news is that we'll finally start resolving those questions on Thursday.
The models are quite high on the Utes this season, and they are predicting a sleepwalk blowout of the Wildcats. Expect Utah to adopt a straightforward, physical approach to this contest, with a steady diet of simple run plays that will exhaust and wear down a physically overmatched Weber State front seven. On the other side of the ball, the Wildcats are going to test Utah's defense in space, and they'll have to be on assignment and make good tackles to get the near-shutout Ute fans will want to see in this game. I expect them to slip up a few times, but for the game to not be close in the second half.
It's time for football season, Ute Nation!
Utah 42, Weber State 10