Just how much is one player worth to a team? For UCLA, it often feels like Dorian Thompson-Robinson is responsible for every score. He's been part of 20 of the Bruins' 33 touchdowns (receiving or rushing) and is an unquestioned force to be reckoned with, but can we get more precise than that?
ESPN's QBR is a popular statistical measure of overall performance, but like many such stats it loses touch with the reality of a football game as it gets more complex. It's generated from much more concrete stats, however, and by digging deep we can get an idea of just how valuable UCLA's electric quarterback is... and just how valuable Utah's is, too.
QBR is based on expected points added above average, with a focus on high leverage downs- the most important plays in a game that lead to the biggest swing in win probability. Those numbers are ground through complex mathematics to compare them to the average QB performance and then pinned to a 0-100 scale where 50 is average and 100 is off the charts.
ESPN's statistical team is kind enough to share the raw numbers with us. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is indeed an electric talent, responsible for adding 37.9 expected points to UCLA's total. With an average quarterback, the Bruin's 20th ranked scoring offense would probably be something like 50th. At first glance, that's a whole lot better than Cam Rising.
Cam Rising lags a touchdown behind in the raw total, having added only 29.9 points to Utah's performance above an average quarterback. What's remarkable, though, is how fast he's done it. While DTR has had 334 plays to score those extra points, Cam has done it in only 201. That blistering pace is good for 11th in the country, blowing away DTR. Cam may not have rolled into the season with much hype or even the QB1 designation, but his torrid pace will eclipse UCLA's heralded signal caller by the end of November, if he keeps it up.
Look for Cam Rising to outplay Dorian Thompson-Robinson this week and most weeks after as Utah continues to make a case for the South crown. Good news on the injury report for multiple offensive weapons for the Utes means that we can expect a torrent of points against UCLA's soft passing defense, and DTR is unlikely to be able to keep up.
I'm expecting Utah to tear up and down the field this week and while they won't be able to stop Chip Kelly's offense, the Bruins are going to make enough mistakes that the final score won't be too close.
Utah 36, UCLA 27