Published Sep 9, 2022
Statistically Speaking: Utah vs SUU
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Joseph Silverzweig  •  UteNation
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@jsilverzweig

Loathe as we all are for yet another rehashing of Saturday night in the Swamp, I'll leave looking backwards at this: sometimes, you just get beat.

Looking forward, the Utes' game against SUU promises little in the way of statistical intrigue. This should be a sixty minute to zero minute shellacking and Ute fans will hope to see plenty of time from second and third-string players. The final score will give us less insight into the strength of this football team than just how much time those players get.

Last year, teams who would finish in the top 10 played 8 games against FCS opponents. They went 8-0, with an average score of 50-9.8. With the notable exception of Oklahoma State's 23-16 nailbiter over Missouri State, the box scores had unique features.

In a competitive game, you'd expect the starting quarterback to take nearly 100% of snaps, the starting running back to take between 50-60% of carries, and for the team to have somewhere between 12-18 tacklers and 5 or 6 receivers catching passes. Top 10 box scores against inferior opponents have a very different look.

On average, a top 10 team's leading carrier had just 35% of the team's carries, while their QB1 had just 71% of the pass attempts. They also had a much larger number of receivers in the game, with the most brutal beatdowns getting up to the 12-14 range and even closer games having 8 and 9 pass catchers, and average of 9.75. Backup defenses really spread the tackles around too—top 10 teams averaged 24.4 players accumulating at least 1 tackle, and very few players with more than 8 or 9. In the whole data set, only Oklahoma State's leading tackler had double digit tackles, with 15.

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Utah's going to win this game by a whole heap of points. Costly mistakes, inferior second and third unit play, and the mindset of the players and coaches may that number look better or worse, but it's going to be comfortable throughout.

Instead of the scoreboard, watch the box score to judge the Utes' performance. If we see two or three QBs getting passes in, plenty of Glover, Curry, and Bernard, and hear the names of receivers and tacklers called that we haven't heard before, that is the best sign that Utah is on track for a top-10 season.

Utah 49, SUU 6