They call them 'game breakers' for a reason. Big plays in special teams defy the odds and utterly disrupt reasonable expectations for the course of a football game. Blocked kicks, touchdown returns, and muffed punts have an impact on the contests that feature them that is far greater than their average over a thirteen or fourteen game season would suggest. San Diego State has developed a knack for breaking games in just this way.

The Aztecs have picked up at least one punt return for a touchdown every year since 2017, they’ve stunned observers with routine 50 yard punts, and are on track for a second-in-a-row top five finish in special teams efficiency this season. Averaged out over twelve games, the impact of these plays is nothing compared to a strong offensive and defensive unit—less than a field goal. But in those games where special teams hits paydirt, they change everything. Kyle Whittingham knows this, and up until recently had experienced remarkable success limiting game breaking special teams plays (while cooking up a few of his own).

From 2016 to 2020, the Utes went 38 games without giving up a special teams touchdown. Cracks started to show in 2020's shortened season, but the streak really fell apart in 2021. Three kickoff and two punt return touchdowns accounted for 35 (11%) of the regular season points Utah would surrender. Of the five, two were especially costly, narrowing the distance between the Utes and their opponents and costing Utah wins against San Diego State and Oregon State.

In a game where the elite teams outclass the average ones by only two or three touchdowns, a single missed punt coverage can be the difference between a game a team like Utah basically can't lose and a game where they are struggling to hang on.

Against this years Aztecs, though, a big special teams play is more likely to be the difference in Utah's efforts to cover the spread, rather than winning the game. SDSU lost too much in the offseason, with bellcow tailback Greg Bell to the NFL and other losses up and down the roster. Utah looks loaded as ever, gets the Aztecs at home, and has a score to settle. I'm expecting a romp.

Utah 38, SDSU 14