At the top of the stat sheet, Utah and Arizona State couldn’t be more different. It starts with the basics, wins and losses- the Utes are 6-2, the Sun Devils are 2-6. The Utes are ranked 18, the Sun Devils haven’t sniffed a ballot all season. Utah has earned respect and admiration, Arizona State… hasn’t.

Another layer of the onion down, though, there are striking similarities. On defense, the Utes give up 3.26 yards per carry and 7 yards per attempt. The Sun Devils are right there- 3.52 yards per carry and 6.5 yards per attempt. Utah gets about 3 sacks per game, Arizona State just half a sack less. On offense, it’s much the same story- Utah runs for 4 yards per carry, Arizona State 3.5. The Utes get just 6.6 yards per pass, Arizona State 6.7. On and on down the stat sheet, these teams look similar- an offense that struggles to score points at the best of times and a defense that keeps them in the game week in and week out.

Yet clearly, these teams aren’t the same. It’s obvious on the field. There’s no better case study than these two teams for the power of schedule in determining a team’s strength. Arizona State’s seven FBS opponents are the 64th toughest by ESPN FPI. Utah’s is 14th. There’s simply no comparing Utah’s opponents to Arizona State’s, and that makes all the difference.

The Sun Devils are about to slam into a brutal gauntlet, too. After Utah comes another road trip, this one to UCLA, and then Oregon comes to town to put another nail in the coffin. The Sun Devils close out with the Wildcats at home, but Arizona is no pushover this year and the Devils have less than a 25% chance of winning any one of their remaining games.

Utah is no longer a serious contender for the conference title after the bad loss to Oregon- it would take a wild series of events and a dramatic improvement across multiple areas of play for the Utes to work back into the conversation- but there’s still conference pride and bowl position on the line, so Utah has plenty to play for. With the taste of the Ducks loss still bitter in their mouths, Utah will come out with everything they’ve got. It’s going to be way more than Arizona State can handle.

There aren’t a lot of scenarios where Utah loses this game. In particular, Arizona State is going to struggle mightily to score- shutouts are rare in conference play, but this is Utah’s best opportunity of the season for the feat. The Sun Devils have played some abysmal defenses- in terms of yards per play, they have played teams ranked 94th, 100th, 120th, and 121st in the nation and averaged just 22 points in those games.

Look for Utah to utterly dominate the field when Arizona State is trying to score, and for the offense to do enough to make the game quite comfortable headed into the fourth quarter. The Sun Devils can score on a big pass play now and again, and I anticipate that will keep them from being kept entirely off the scoreboard, but this should be a comfortable win for the Utes.

Utah 28, Arizona State 10