There's a lot of noise this week about this game being a risky one. There's no doubt the Utes are banged up — Cam Rising missed last game, Dalton Kincaid was visibly limited, and Utah relied on deep cuts into the running back depth chart to put together their 4 yard per carry average. Who can say how the team will recover going into this week, but there's definitely cause for concern about the overall health of the offense in particular.

Arizona looked like a different team against the Trojans than they have all season. The Wildcats trailed by just two points at the start of the 4th quarter and put a legitimate scare into the Trojans, with Wildcats QB Jayden DeLaura passing for nearly 400 yards and the running backs gashing USC again and again. The Arizona defense got bailed out by some unlikely USC miscues, who missed two field goals but only punted once- but still, it was a legitimately impressive performance by the 14 point underdog.

Football is a game of variability, with swings in expectations so huge they defy our expectations formed by other numbers we notice. In football, 10-15% touchdown swings are routine and mostly unremarkable. Imagine getting on the scale one day, and instead of the 180 you've been seeing for weeks, you see 207. That's 15% — a kind of swing that is absolutely normal in college football.

Rather than some huge change in Arizona football, it's much more likely that we saw them on the one day they weigh in high. USC comes in on the road, gives one of their lesser performances, misses a couple field goals, and suddenly the Wildcats look like giantkillers.

They'll weigh in at 180 again this week.

This week is the largest deviation in Utah's favor from the Vegas lines of the season so far, but rather than suggesting a bet, this suggests the information my model leaves out is critical this week — in this case, injuries. Still, my model would set this game at -23.5 for the Utes, nearly a touchdown over the prevailing line.

Even if the wise guys know things I don't (and they usually do), this is not a game that will be in doubt by the third quarter. While Arizona's offense is potent, they aren't on the level of USC or UCLA, and their defense is worst in the Pac-12 and 6th worst in the nation. Look for Utah to rack up yards regardless of who is throwing, catching, or rushing for the team and the defense to perform well enough to keep things comfortable.

Utah 47, Arizona 27