It's insane tiebreaker season and the scenarios are swirling. With many of the critical games in the books and and every team through at least four games, we've got a pretty good idea of who the contenders are, and fans feel like they can predict the likely end result.
As is often the case in college football, the predictability is overstated. There are four contenders with fifteen games they don't play against each other, as well as the remaining marquee contests: Utah's visit to Oregon and USC's visit to UCLA. Fifteen games is a lot, and while nine of them individually are 'gimmes', with an 89% or better chance for the title contender to win, that's still nine games where craziness can happen and six more where the underdog will have a serious shot at pulling off the upset.
‘If Utah wins out, Oregon wins out except for Utah, and USC/UCLA wins out' seems pretty perfunctory at this point, but there are a ton of landmines. All told, even assuming Utah beats Oregon, there's just a 16% chance of that result at the end of the year.
Oregon: Not counting the game against Utah, the Ducks have just a 34% chance of winning their other four games, with the roadie to Oregon State (just 55% to win) looming particularly large.
UCLA: UCLA's record has far outpaced their statistical performance, and the model gives them a serious chance (at least 19%) to lose every game but Arizona.
USC: Okay, the Trojan's schedule is legitimately soft. Notre Dame closing out the season means they've just got four conference games remaining, and they are 93% or better to win the three that aren't against UCLA.
Utah: This part of the schedule looked like a cupcake buffet when the season started, and for the most part it still is, with Arizona and Colorado at least as bad as advertised. The visit to Pullman however is not going to be a picnic.
Utah doesn't control their own destiny as such. But the reality is that there are plenty of losable football games on the schedules of the four contenders, and any team that wins them is going to be in a great position to make the championship game. For Utah, that starts in Pullman.
Washington State has rounded into a solid team this season, and it's going to be tough to head to chilly Pullman and snag a critical win. Washington State brings a gritty, surprising top 20 efficiency defense to the game- although their 75th ranked efficiency offense may be just what the doctor ordered for a Utah defense that's been gashed for over 8 yards per play their last two games.
The best news for Utah is that it's strength against weakness on Thursday. The Utes' passing attack is ranked 15th in yard per attempt and 11th in passer rating. The Cougars are ranked 75th and 81st in defending those respective stats. That mismatch should be enough for Utah to stay on top of the scoreboard.
Utah 30, WSU 24
