Statistically Speaking: Utah at Washington

Last week's tough loss, tough injuries, and the uncertainty of the opponent should drive home the point that we simply can't predict pandemic football the way we could predict college football. Will Utah's OL struggle all year, or were they not allowed to practice due to COVID cases? Was Bentley not able to get meaningful practice snaps during the last few weeks, or was that something worse than rust we saw?

Embracing the uncertainty is tough to do, but perhaps it will serve as a healthy reminder that we really never know what is going to happen in this crazy game, and that a few chance moments can completely alter the arc of a game or even a season in a system of determining success that is as reliant on perfection as college football.

Washington looks like a pretty dang good team this year, especially as we've gotten a better look at what Oregon State is capable of. As for the Utes, we still don't have enough data to shift our pre-season expectations much- the performance against USC was worse than expected, but the pandemic has introduced enough additional uncertainty that its within the margin of error this year.

There's a reason this game has shifted to prime time- these are two teams that have a lot of talent and that promises some fireworks. Washington comes in with the edge already, however- and they have a lot of pandemic issued advantages to boot.

There's some real blowout potential if Utah doesn't bring their 'A' game; my model gives Washington a 25% chance of winning by 14 or more. Anyone who watched the football game last week knows what Utah needs to work on: turnovers, offensive line play, and sticking with the guy who looks like RB1–Ty Jordan.

We know the offensive line has plenty of talent, but they have been unable to practice much together due to Covid isolation issues. With a week of more consistent practice under their belt, hopefully we see a performance closer to what we expect from this unit.

That said, UW is projected as the better team, is playing at home, and has had a full week to prepare for the Utes. That's a big advantage as Utah has had to split time preparing for Arizona State, although the belief is they anticipated playing Washington the whole time. Utah will have to perform at a high level and get some luck to keep this game competitive.

Washington 31, Utah 24