Utah's defense ruled the day against Oregon State, a mack truck trend as the team put together their fourth consecutive game allowing less than 20 points. Clark Phillips' three picks were the story of the week, earning him deserved national accolades. They were spectacular enough to disguise the continuation of a more troubling trend: the Utes' dire lack of havoc plays.

'Havoc play' is the catchall term analysts use to describe plays which disrupt the rhythm of an offense- passes broken up, interceptions, forced fumbles, sacks, and tackles for a loss. Utah ranks highly in INTs, but they are in the bottom 2/3rds of the league in every other havoc stat. In TFLs, Utah ranks 64th and in sacks, 76th.

These problems were on display against an Oregon State team that could do everything but score, with three 70+ yard drives that miraculously averaged just 3.3 points. Against mistake-prone offenses without serious playmakers, these problems are trivial. Against the top tier passers, rushers, and receivers Utah will be facing in the remainder of October, these problems may be lethal.

There are some indications these low numbers may not be dire, however. Utah's havoc rate- the percentage of plays against their defense resulting in a havoc play- is 35th in the nation. That's not good, but it suggests that much of their struggles are the result of a defense that is playing extremely well fundamentally and getting opposing offenses off the field too fast to rack up gaudy havoc stats. The Utes defense has seen just 285 plays, 7th among teams who have played 5 games. They rank 6th in defensive efficiency, demonstrating that teams are being stifled by this defense despite the lack of havoc. Against DTR and the Bruins, though, they are going to need it.

The Bruins are an excellent football team, and they've been able to score more or less at will, not putting up less than 32 points once this season. Utah's offense has also been explosive and should be able to keep pace, especially given UCLA's paltry defensive performance so far. In a shootout, Utah is a bit more likely to be the last team to score.

To get the statement win Utah fans are looking for, the team will need to take the next step defensively. Filling gaps and covering receivers is essential, but to be the kind of transcendent defense that will stymie athletes like Dorian Thompson-Robertson, Utah will need to get in the backfield and wreak havoc. Do that, and the shootout I'm predicting will turn into a blowout.

Utah 42, UCLA 38