The Utes' defense sure seems to have turned a corner.

Here's the story: The first game of the season, with nails chewed down to the quick as the Florida offense seemed to be able to run the ball at will, set the standard for the fan experience of Utah's usually dependable defense. After a stretch of solid defensive scoring performances driven by turnovers at just the right moment, the Utes found themselves in a pair of intense shootouts with the southern California teams. They rolled into Washington State on a mission, and have absolutely locked it down since, averaging less than 15 points a game allowed. It's easy to see a defense that has finally figured it out and come together, but the data has a different tale to tell.

These are key offensive indicators- statistics with a strong correlation to points scored and games won. Yards per carry, yards per attempt, passer rating, completion percentage, and yards per play. Utah's had huge swings in these numbers- from allowing Florida to complete 71% of their passes or UCLA collect a 6.24 average on the ground all the way to holding Oregon State to 95 passer rating or Stanford to just 3.5 yards per play.

To smooth things out, this chart tracks the Utes' defensive performance against that opponent's 2022 average, which is fixed at 100 (lower is better). If a team gets 4 yards per rush and Utah let them get 5, the Utah defense allowed 125 on that indicator. If a team normally completes 70% of their passes but the Utes held them to 50%, the Utah defense allowed 71.

There's no trend to be found here. Each statistic has some big peaks and valleys, but it is variation without direction. Utah's best average Key Offensive Indicator performance was against ASU, and their second best was last week against Stanford, at opposite ends of the conference slate. Their worst week came in week 1 against Florida, and their second and third against UCLA and USC, much later in the season.

We shouldn't expect marked defensive improvement, but we can expect Utah to maintain their performance level. Utah is the most balanced and complete team in the league, and they have averaged out to pretty darn good on both sides of the ball. Will that be enough to beat Oregon in Autzen? It's gonna be close.

This promises to be one of the most impactful and competitive games of the season. Utah is a virtual lock for the title game if they win, and Oregon only has to mop-up Oregon State. Rumors are flying about who will play quarterback for the Ducks, but the fundamentals of this game lie elsewhere.

Utah is the only team in the PAC-12 ranked in the top 25 for offensive and defensive efficiency alike. This is far from the most fearsome Utes defense in recent memory, but it has dramatically outshined the defenses of the other league contenders. The offense has been nearly as illustrious, but it's the capacity to do both well that will allow Utah to get that last critical stop and score that last critical touchdown in a game that promises action down to the wire.

Utah 35 Oregon 34