In a sport defined by uncertainty, it is fitting that Utah enters a program-defining season with no idea whether their first game is an important one. Is this a clash between a playoff favorite and an SEC heavyweight who will contend for the division title? Is it a contest between a gutsy Pac-12 title aspirant that wants another crack at the Rose Bowl and an also-ran who is going to struggle to make a bowl game? All of the above? Something in between?

If it’s the first, this game may be the most important of the regular season. If Florida rolls up a half dozen or more conference wins and ends the season ranked, Utah’s potential victory over the Gators will be an essential part of their playoff case—especially if Utah winds up picking up a loss or two along the way (which is likely) but generally rolls to a spot in the conference championship game (also pretty likely).

On the other hand, if Utah’s in a brawl for the South with an ascendant USC or UCLA, and Florida is just one more loss in a season that’s not a playoff ride, the game is irrelevant—especially if the Gators don’t put together an impressive season after they visit the Utes.

Add to all that uncertainty all the ways these teams have changed in the offseason, and you have a game that’s darn difficult to predict. Which doesn’t mean I didn’t try. However, my typical statistical analysis and charts could be viewed as mostly irrelevant for this Week 1 matchup.

Utah has lost, and gained, talent all over the field in the offseason, including snagging Florida’s leading tackler as the Utes’ likely leading tackler. Transfers, impressive rookies, and recovery from long term injuries could offset key losses, or they could fall short of expectations and reveal dangerous weaknesses for Utah.

Florida has changed even more, with a new coach, new QB, and major contributions demanded from transfers and new players in order to approach the lofty standards of the storied SEC program. The team could be a bungling mess struggling to find cohesion—or they could rely on their remarkable individual gifts to make play after play and dramatically exceed their expectations.

If we average all that craziness out, we see a Utah team that is probably going to be nearly a touchdown better, on average, than the Gators, but in the first game of a season and one of the longest road journeys possible for the Utes. I see Utah squeaking out of this one by a little less than a field goal. However, this weekend, truly nothing would surprise me.

Prediction: Utah 28, Florida 26