For the second year in a row, the Utes are in The Granddaddy of Them All. Dominant play down the stretch, a few slip ups from other contenders, and key victories over Oregon State and USC paved the way to the championship game, where the Utes turned on the juice and dismantled the Trojans.
Their opponent is Penn State, a team who was on the outside looking in from their loss at Michigan and who solidified that also-ran status with another loss at Ohio State. Those two games against two of the best teams in the nation aside, Penn State made short work of their otherwise-middling schedule with only one of their ten wins coming by less than 10 points.
These two teams are exceptionally closely matched on paper and have similar philosophies and playstyles. Penn State is a prototypical grind-it-out Big 10 football team, and in many ways Utah has been built from the same stone and steel. On a neutral field, without discounting for missing talent, this game is terrifically close: the Utes win 50.17% of the time. For a game of this historic magnitude, however, a closer look is warranted.
Starting Pick: Utah 27, Penn State 26
Talent On the Field
The lunchpail mentality of these two teams have led to the majority of players for both teams showing up for this game, including almost half of those with significant NFL prospects. CBS sports places five NFL prospects in the top 150 including three from Utah: Braeden Daniels, Dalton Kincaid, and Clark Phillips III as well as two from Penn State: cornerbacks Ji'Ayir Brown and Joey Porter Jr. Of those five, three are sitting out the game- Kincaid, Phillips, and Joey Porter. There are no other significant retirements or abstentions on either team.
Phillips and Porter are more or less a wash. Although Phillips put together a better highlight reel and awards season, these are two exceptional lockdown cornerbacks with very similar assignments and skillsets who both expect to be taken in the late first or early second round of the NFL draft. Their absence is impactful, but each cancels the other out.
Kincaid is a lopsided loss. Utah is giving up its leading receiver in receptions, yards, and TDs. While the next TE up, Thomas Yassmin, is a star in his own right, this is still a significant hit to Utah's offensive production. The difference in on field talent is worth about 3.5 points- think of it as the offense getting held to a field goal one time when Kincaid would have found his way to the end zone for a touchdown.
When that's priced in, Penn State ticks into favorite territory. With a 3.5 point change to expected scoring, the Nittany Lions project to win this matchup 57.7% of the time. That's not the only tweak to the model that needs to be made however.
Pick is Now: Utah 23, Penn State 26
Home Field Advantage
Playing on your own turf is one of the most fundamental advantages a team experiences. Vegas oddsmakers typically award 3 points to the home team, a result of two combined psychological and tactical advantages: the kick of adrenaline from having the crowd behind you, and the extra emotional push that comes from feeling as though you are defending your territory.
When it comes to the crowd, Utah will likely have a modest but meaningful edge. Utah received a ticket allotment about 30% larger than Penn State's, and the easier and cheaper travel will likely cause that advantage to hold. The 91,000 seat stadium should be about 57% Utah fans. Plenty of cheering on both sides, but the Utes will see about half a point of advantage from the crowd.
More impactful than crowd noise is geographic proximity- home field advantages are at their largest when there is a large difference in miles travelled for one school and another to the stadium. That can be the difference between playing next door and taking a 70 miles bus ride or, as here, a difference spanning time zones.
The Nittany Lions have a 2,560 mile journey to Pasadena while the Utes have less than 700 miles to travel. This difference is not quite worth the full three points of a full home game, but it is worth a hair over two points in expected scoring for the Utes.
The Breakdown
Utah, who would have a tiny edge at full strength on a neutral field, is on the short end of the stick when it comes to talent thanks to Dalton Kincaid's absence. They make up some of that ground with a modest home field advantage, but not quite enough to tick them back over to projected winner.
With teams as evenly matched as these two are, tiny fluctuations are everything. Each team will strike body blows and the score will stay tight, but in the final calculus the title of Rose Bowl champion will go to the team that converts critical third-and-longs and finds a way to score touchdowns in the red zone. Dalton Kincaid's absence will be felt especially keenly in those moments and put the Utes at a disadvantage- unless of course the roar of the crowd inspires players like Thomas Yassmin to do extraordinary things, as we've seen many times before. Still, though, the averages are against the Utes, but only just.
Final Prediction: Penn State 28, Utah 27
