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Utah fielded two teams this year- the first had a mediocre defense and an explosive, but inconsistent offense that failed to protect the line of scrimmage. The second was dominant on both sides of the ball, with a punishing run game, an opportunistic passing attack, and a defense that rounded into form as the class of the PAC 12. Which team got on the plane to go to California will determine what kind of Rose Bowl the world will see.
Utah's defense transformed over the last half of the conference season- in the first five conference games, the Utes allowed 7.62 yards per pass and 4.04 yards per rush. In the last five, they allowed just 5.32 yards per pass and 2.7 yards per rush. Those first five put them in the bottom half of the nation's defenses, while the second half performance would have ranked 1st (passing) and 5th (rushing) in the country.
The offensive transformation is subtler than points scored or yards per play, and happened more gradually, but Utah significantly improved their performance in completion percentage, sacks allowed, and short-to-go situations thanks to improved offensive line, quarterback, and running back play.
There's no clearer way to distinguish between these two teams than to compare how they would fare against their Rose Bowl opponent, Ohio State. Rather than the usual ten thousand simulated games, this graphic has twenty thousand- ten thousand featuring the first half Utes and ten thousand with the second half team.
Second-half-of-the-season Utah promises a close, contested matchup where a few plays here or there could swing the result. First half Utah? That's a team that would be completely outmatched by the Buckeyes with virtually no chance of victory.
Are you a believer in this team's incredible story? It's a tale of coming together in the face of adversity, achieving amazing things, and finding new depths of themselves they hadn't known existed. If you believe in that story, you believe this team will give Ohio State everything they can handle. They've certainly made a believer out of me.
Utah 35, Ohio State 33
