Countdown 64 Days: Statistically Speaking, the Pac-12 South
The South is complicated and dangerous terrain. The good news for University of Utah fans is that with massive departures from an underperforming USC squad there is an opening to seize control of the division, and Utah is poised—better than any other team—to take advantage of it. The bad news is there are few gimmes. No team promises to be a world-beater, but the division is loaded with dangerous opponents who can give the Utes a run for their money.
We'll define these teams with these performance categories:
Win Every Game? - This is reserved for the very best teams, projected to finish in the top ten nationally and have a shot at ending the season in the playoff picture.
Win Any Game- Teams which are a threat to beat anyone they face but are unlikely to finish the season undefeated, go in this group.
Win Some Games- These squads form the 'muddled middle' of the conference—they might reach up and knock down a front-runner, but mostly beat up on each other.
Win a Game?- No coach wants to see their team down here. These teams are at risk of going 0-9 in conference, lagging too far behind average to be competitive except against their own ilk.
Win Every Game:
No team in the south has earned this. In 2017 USC was only very good, not great, and they have to completely rebuild many critical areas. Utah has an extraordinary level of stability and good talent incoming, but didn't perform at a high enough level to legitimately expect an 11+ win season.
Win Any Game:
It wasn't obvious the Utes belonged here, above every other South competitor, but as the numbers continued to crunch out it became more clear. The Utes' lone serious loss of talent is at receiver, an area where their recruiting class is strong and the return of Britain Covey is much anticipated. Despite a season many fans found frustrating, the Utes scored nearly a full touchdown more than they allowed. They have plenty of talent to fill in every gap, to go along with another year of seasoning and stability in the coaching staff. This isn't 'the year' (that's 2019), but they might earn some hardware anyway.
USC was definitively better than Utah last year overall (despite an exceptionally close and exciting game), and they raked in another top shelf recruiting class. They slot in underneath the Utes here, however, because there is just a tremendous amount of uncertainty all over the field. If they were just replacing Darnold, or Jones II, or Rasheem Green, that would be one thing. But with heavy losses both to graduation and early departure, it's highly unlikely USC will field an offense and defense without exploitable holes. It's hard to say what the weaknesses will be, but there will almost certainly be at least one and opponents will take advantage.
Win Some Games:
Arizona works their way to the top thanks to a lot of stability in their talent and a 2017 showing that was fairly strong. While their recruiting class was the worst in the South, the fact that there's no serious gaps to replace means they should be able to survive that, at least for a year. They have all the same point-scoring talent as last year and should be a challenge for virtually any opponent. The unexpected loss of Rich Rodriguez costs them a little, but not enough to materially impact their chances.
UCLA slots in next for two reasons: they landed a really excellent recruiting class that promises to be able to help their offense stay competitive, and they get a 'Chip Kelly Bump'. My model does not actually give a bump for Chip Kelly, but it was seriously downgrading the Bruins, more than any other team in the division, for the persistently poor performance of Jim Mora. Kelly is projected to be average (which is probably conservative, but especially in the first year a fair analysis). However, average is a big improvement from below average. Replacing Josh Rosen is key, of course, but somewhat lost in the conversation is how much wide receiver talent the Bruins will need to find.
The Buffs have a middling recruiting class that has to do a lot of work on offense and some on defense to keep them where they were—which wasn't great to begin with. Still, they are probably going to be too good to expect to go 0-9 in conference, with an experienced quarterback at the helm. If a few teams step up or Colorado puts a foot wrong, however, it could all come crashing down in a hurry.
Win A Game?:
Todd Graham had his detractors—and earned them—but he was worth a good sized bump in win percentage for the Sun Devils. His departure, coupled with dramatic losses in the run game and cavernous holes throughout the defense leave huge doubts as to what this team can accomplish. They had a solid recruiting class, but nowhere near enough muscle to feel good about coming up with the havoc and tackling they lost—their defense was bad to begin with. This team might eke out a win or two given the low ebb most of the conference is at this season, but it's not terribly likely.
Overview
I went where few dared to tread, ranking Utah ahead of all challengers in this division. However, the numbers don't lie and I feel great about the decision. USC has a huge rebuilding project ahead of them on both sides of the ball, while Utah brings superior stability, the best coach in the division, and impressive new talent to fill in the gaps that did open up. Utah's scheduling disadvantages will make winning the South harder than it should be, but they've got the horses to get it done.