Statistically Speaking: The Pac-12 Championship Game
The moment has finally arrived. Dreams we, even now, hardly dare to dream are within reach for this Utah football team. One game stands between them and a Rose Bowl or perhaps even more. Having completed an historically dominant season they now turn their attention to the deepest, most talented, and best coached opponent they have faced this year- the Oregon Ducks.
The matchup holds a tremendous amount of intrigue, featuring a head-to-head contest between perhaps the best defensive and offensive lines in the nation, headlined by a tantalizing preview of the NFL futures of two of the finest players in the conference- Penei Sewell and Bradlee Anae. Oregon is loaded with talent throughout, however, with talents such as Justin Herbert, Juwan Johnson, Troy Dye, and others. For Utah's part, they present the stiffest challenge the 10-2 Ducks have faced this season- ESPN efficiency ranks them as the best offense and the second best defense (a scant 1.5 points behind Auburn) that Oregon has seen.
The match is also intriguing because these two conference foes have not faced off this year, and never with the teams' key players healthy- Huntley, Moss, and Sewell all missed last year's tilt in Salt Lake City. What we do have this year, however, is common opponents. Eight of them.
Utah and Oregon have performed quite similarly only twice- five- and four-point wins against Washington and twenty eight point wins against Arizona. Otherwise, the performances have been quite divergent- Utah beat WSU, ASU, Cal, and Oregon State by an average of 25 points more than Oregon did, while Oregon's margin against USC and Colorado exceeded Utah's by an average of 25.5. Overall, Utah has outperformed Oregon's margin to the tune of about 6.25 points per game against like opponents. It's no accident that this closely mirrors expectations for Friday's result.
Utah is in a good place in this matchup, although it's by far the best opponent the Utes have faced and the first game in nearly two months where there was a significant doubt as to who the victor would be.
Oregon is going to give the Utes a run for their money, but ultimately their lack of dynamic playmakers is going to doom them. Their receivers and tailback are very good but not elite, and they have mostly ridden behind a superior offensive line. When Utah takes that strength away from them, the soft parts of their offense will be exposed. I project Utah to dramatically limit Oregon's scoring and come away with a hard-fought but not nail biting win.
Utah 24, Oregon 16