Countdown 72 Days: Statistically Speaking, the Pac-12 North

There is finally a King in the North. Last year was chaos, with surprise contenders and multiple dangerous teams. This was exciting, but ultimately wound up costing the Pac-12 the kind of clear front-runner that creates national buzz. Well, the dust has settled, the recruiting classes are in, and transfer, graduation (and a tragedy) have set the stage for one clear, dominant force in the Pac-12 North.

We'll define these teams with these performance categories:

Win Every Game? - This is reserved for the very best teams, projected to finish in the top ten nationally and have a shot at ending the season in the playoff picture.

Win Any Game- Teams which are a threat to beat anyone they face but are unlikely to finish the season undefeated, go in this group.

Win Some Games- These squads form the 'muddled middle' of the conference- they might reach up and knock down a front-runner, but mostly beat up on each other.

Win a Game?- No coach wants to see their team down here. These teams are at risk of going 0-9 in conference, lagging too far behind average to be competitive except against their own ilk.

Win Every Game:

The Huskies are the only team in the North that reloaded with talent similar to what departed. In addition, they retain much of their offensive talent and while they lose some talent on defense the havoc numbers should continue to be high. Combine that with their coaching staff and the extraordinarily high level of play from last season and you have a recipe for a national title contender in Washington

Win Any Game:

Stanford struggled to distinguish themselves in recruiting this year, and is experiencing a serious departure of talent on defense. Look for the healthy ten point gap between points scored and points allowed to close, somewhat. Stanford won't be the impenetrable wall they have been in previous seasons, and will continue to be a one-note offense. Had Bryce Love not elected to return, Stanford would likely be down a category, but his extraordinary talent and ability to score on any down makes them a threat to defeat any opponent.

Win Some Games:

Oregon is pushing the boundaries of this category, experiencing heavy losses all over the field from a team that wasn't great last year, but raking in one of the best recruiting classes in the conference. Unless Phil Knight's checkbook can play defensive end, though, the Oregon defense is going to struggle to create the kind of havoc necessary to support their devil-may-care style elsewhere on the field. Oregon's future is the most uncertain of any North team- if there are a few superstars in that 15th-ranked recruiting class they could easily find themselves in the giant killer category. Mario Cristobal has a rebuilding project ahead of him, though.

There's a sizeable gap between Oregon and Cal, but the Bears are too talented and return too many pieces to think there's a risk they go 0-9 in conference. Cal also benefits from the uncertainty of a new coach; the team could do more to defy expectations than most, because there's still a chance Justin Wilcox is the real deal. It's hard to see how they'll be a smashing success, however, with the need to break in a new quarterback and only moderate returns on defense. An uninspired recruiting class leaves little hope that they'll find a game-changer at the freshman's table.

It's hard to overstate the pounding the Cougars took over the offseason- they witnessed the departure of some extraordinary talent and the tragic loss of their projected starter at quarterback, who fell victim to suicide. The loss of talent leaves little confidence in their ability to bounce back, and while my stat-driven analysis doesn't consider the emotional toll of Tyler Hilinski's death, it can't be easy to take the field under those circumstances either. Expect the Cougars to take a substantial step backwards on both sides of the ball and allow more points than they score this season.

Win a Game?:

It feels like Oregon State has been down here forever, but they've earned this place with year after year of abysmal performances. They allowed a flabbergasting 23 more points per game than they scored last year, and the high return numbers and low recruiting ranking leaves little hope for improvement. In addition, their major offseason loss was Ryan Nall- a game-breaking talent who it is unlikely the Beavers can replace. This team can't get much worse, but there's no reason to think they'll get better.

Overview

Washington looks tough as nails, and no one else is a real threat to the Huskies. Stanford is the only team that may present a serious obstacle, with the rest of the division likely beating up on each other (and on Oregon State) while they line up like bowling pins for Washington. With a fairly soft non-conference schedule that nonetheless contains an opportunity for a marquee win over Auburn and dodging all but one of the South's top teams, the Huskies are primed to make a run at 12 or 13 wins and a berth in the playoffs.