Countdown 43 Days: Statistically Speaking- Projecting Utah's Defense
Predicting the future is no easy task, and the more detailed you get, the less accurate you will be—but it's fun, so let's do it. I've extrapolated from my big picture analysis that the University of Utah is highly likely to win at least eight games and has a decent shot at 10 or more. Below is a snapshot of what the Utes' stat lines might look like at the end of the year. I've assigned those numbers to the Utes' stars and newcomers and the result is an exciting prediction for a very successful season.
The Utes project to have a top 25 pass defense in almost every respect, with particular success limiting passing efficiency. There will be plenty of havoc to go around as well, with an embarrassment of riches in the defensive backfield. The main weakness projects to be a pass rush that was fairly soft in 2017. Utah's coaches are optimistic about newcomers and everyone in the nation is bullish on Bradlee Anae—an absolute stud off the edge—but that's not reason to predict an immediate return to the pass rushing dominance that has typified Utah's defenses in the past. That's a lot of numbers, but we can go deeper- where are these numbers going to come from?
Julian Blackmon, CB: (Projection) 53 Tackles, 8 PBU, 4 INT, 1 Sack
Julian Blackmon is exhibit 1A on the Utes' defense. He's picked up a bunch of NFL buzz in the offseason thanks to six pass break-ups and four interceptions, last year. On average, a college defensive back intercepts about 25% of the passes he breaks up, so Blackmon's four picks are an indication that he's a fierce ballhawk. He's projected to more or less repeat that performance, this year. With a year of seasoning and physical development he's also projected to be more in the mix behind the line of scrimmage, especially as defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley looks to create pressure in the absence of experienced linebackers.
Bradlee Anae, DE: (Projection) 45 Tackles, 1 PBU, 11 Sacks
Thunder to Blackmon's lightning, Anae really started to come into his own in the last few games, pushing his per game havoc numbers way, way up from where they had been earlier in the season. Anae was not really involved in the passing game except as a pass rush specialist, a departure from previous Utah defensive ends who made a habit of dropping back and breaking up passes. Hopefully Anae makes that leap and learns to get his hands up when he can't beat his man.
This projection splits the difference on sacks, but it's entirely possible that Anae's late-season performance was a sign of things to come. Anae had 1.25 sacks per game in the last four of the season, and at those rates he would put up a monster, 15+ sack season. That's certainly within the realm of possibility.
Chase Hansen, LB: (Projection) 114 Tackles, 3 PBU, 1 INT, 5 Sacks
Hansen has finally developed into his natural position, and moving into his role as a linebacker should pay massive dividends for his stat line—assuming his extra mass offsets the additional punishment of the new position and he can stay on the field. Hansen projects to be a constant presence at the line of scrimmage and over the middle, and his versatility, speed, and instincts are a known quantity. At linebacker, he'll be free to push the pass rush envelope and give in to his aggressive impulses. If he stays healthy, it's going to be a very exciting year for Chase Hansen.
Other Contributors
There is plenty of talent to go around, and aside from Blackmon, Utah will look to get its pass defense from all over the secondary, with Corrion Ballard, Jaylon Johnson, Javelin Guidry, Marquise Blair, Tareke Lewis, and likely several others having a significant impact on the game. This group is loaded and even the backups can fill in more than adequately. If the coaches do have to dig a little deeper, though, there's no shortage of options- Josh Nurse, Tyrone Smith, and others have impressed and will likely pick up some stats in a pinch.
As far as pass pressure, it could come from anywhere on the field depending on who breaks out. With so many departures on the line and at linebacker, there will be intense competition for reps. Maxs Tupai and Davir Hamilton have been in the system the longest and will expect to take over at defensive end, but transfer Mika Tafua could be the breakout performer of the group. The Utes will also get more pressure up the middle in 2018 from Leki Fotu, in particular.
Chase Hansen won't be the only show in town at linebacker—Cody Barton has continued to improve and will prove a capable counterpart. Chris Hart, Donavan Thompson, Devin Lloyd, and the likely arrival of Francis Bernard will all bolster a once thin group. It’s also yet to be determined if Bryant Pirtle will arrive, but he’d be another huge addition to the linebacker unit.
Overview
Utah isn't entirely a known quantity when it comes to pass defense—while one side of the field is set, there are questions on the other at defensive end and linebacker alike. However, an extremely deep, talented, and experienced secondary should provide ample cover for the pass rush to grow into their role, and there are enough options on the roster to be confident someone is going to fill in those stats. Hansen, Blackmon, and Anae are the superstars of this squad, but there is talent and skill at every angle of what should be a nationally relevant pass defense.