We're back in action! Bye weeks are the absolute worst. Everyone else is having fun and we just wait around. For the Utes, though, it couldn't have come at a better time. Utah will be rested and mostly healthy, with continuing rumors of the return of Zack Moss. Although Utah is very deep at tailback and survived his absence fairly well, there's no doubt he is a game-changer when he's on the field.
Moss has dramatically outperformed Utah's other tailbacks against like opponents. Moss is averaging 6.2 YPC and is scoring on 6% of his carries- 12th in the nation among players with at least 15 carries per game. The rest of Utah's stable of backs is performing decently- averaging 4.9 YPC, but scoring on only a modest 2% of carries. That difference in explosiveness and nose for the end zone is arguably the key offensive-side cause of Utah's lone blemish on the season. The Utes were notably weak at converting drives into touchdowns against USC, scoring only twice on six trips.
The Utes have since corrected their red zone woes and found ways to score, but they've used scheme to do it, not improved play from their tailbacks. Utah's three rushing touchdowns vs. WSU all happened in the red zone, but the ball carriers were Tyler Huntley twice and Derrick Vickers in a scatback or flex wide receiver role. Zack Moss changes the composition of Utah's offense by providing a between the tackles, high leverage down threat that Utah hasn't been able to find from their other backs.
This week, however, the differences are likely to be academic. Oregon State has proven to be one of the worst defenses in the nation, ranking 117th in ESPN's Defensive Efficiency metric. Utah should be able to score more or less at will against the Beavers, however they choose to attack and wherever they happen to be on the field. It will prove the difference in this contest.
The Utes are a virtual lock to win this one thanks to extremely high scoring projections. Their ability to move quickly down the field should cover up any mistakes and let them answer big plays from the Oregon State offense. The only thing likely to keep Oregon State in it is turnovers, and Tyler Huntley has taken exceptional care of the football through five weeks. If Zack Moss does return, all the better for the Utes- but they won't need him.
Utah 45, Oregon State 28