Utah will not be tested by the non-conference slate. They weren't seriously tested last week, and NIU projects as even less of a contest. So there's little to look for from a stats-driven perspective. Games like this are murder on a good model- second string players, conservative game planning, and mercy rule playcalling in late quarters are hard to isolate.

When evaluating a game, it's best to throw out 'garbage time' plays. There are lots of different ways to define garbage time, with most analysts selecting some kind of points and time remaining rubric- a game is in garbage time when a team is up 14 in the fourth quarter, 21 in the third quarter, etc. The simplest approach, however, is that garbage time is whenever a model breaks down. Any snap taken when one team has a 99.9% win probability is a garbage time snap.

Against BYU, FPI marked a 99.9% win probability after Wilson tossed his second pick six. My G.A.W.P. model is more conservative with in-game probability, and didn't mark the game as over until Zack Moss picked up his second first down of the Utes' final, nine minute and nineteen second drive.

Against NIU? Garbage time starts at kickoff. My model present a 99.9% win probability for this game, with a projected margin in the low 20s. These kinds of games break my pretty curves and accurate win predictions, but that's okay with me as long as the Utes come away with the W.NIU is outclassed at every position, in every matchup, everywhere on the field. This Utah team is out of the Huskies' league. Rather than numerical performance, I'll be watching for leadership from Utah on Saturday. Did they get caught an emotional high from last week's win, or was it the workmanlike deconstruction that it appeared to be? I want to see this team come out level, prepared, and confident, ideally with starters moving on to next week's matchup before the close of the third quarter. I'm predicting they will.

Utah 31, NIU 10