We're talking about playoffs. For the last seven weeks, Utah has driven every opponent before them into the dirt, behind a lethally efficient offense and perhaps the best defense in the nation. They've caught the attention of everyone in the country- or at least everyone who lives north of Lexington, Kentucky and west of Baton Rouge. One after the other, other playoff contenders have looked slow or sloppy and fallen out of the good graces of the College Football Playoff Committee. The Utes now stand with only a handful of teams who seem worthy of a shot at the National Championship.

Using my model to generate win probabilities for a number of different hypothetical matchups as well as ESPN FPI's win probabilities, I identified a host of options for the Utes' final landing spot- from Alamo Bowl losers to hoisting the Crystal Football. What follows lays out each and every one of those possibilities.

Where are the Utes Headed?
Playoff Berth- 34% Chance
Rose Bowl- 27.5% Chance
Cotton Bowl- 27% Chance
Alamo Bowl- 11.5% Chance

Why?
There is a lot of concern locally about Alabama or Oklahoma beating the Utes out for the final spot. I am not concerned about that. Utah is currently ranked 7th in the CFP, behind Georgia, Alabama, and Oregon (who lost to ASU and will drop). Oklahoma is ranked 9th. Assuming no one moves much, Conference Championship Week for the playoff contenders will look like something like this:

Utah (6) vs. Oregon (12)
Oklahoma (7) vs. Baylor (10)
Ohio State (2) vs. Wisconsin or Minnesota (9)
Clemson (3) vs. Virginia (unr)
Georgia (4) vs. LSU (1)
Alabama (5) idle

There's no cause for believing that Oklahoma will move ahead of Utah by beating an similar opponent they've already beaten once. Alabama will be one spot ahead of Utah, and Utah's defeating an elite opponent and earning a conference title would have to not move the needle at all—an improbable proposition. That leaves Georgia (47.6% chance to beat LSU) and, of course, Oregon (37% chance to beat Utah) as the only legitimate threats to Utah's playoff berth.

Rose, Cotton... Alamo

If the Utes beat Oregon, but Georgia beats LSU, the most likely result would be both the Bulldogs and the Tigers making the playoff along with Ohio State and Clemson. That would send the 12-1 and probably 5th ranked Utes to the Rose Bowl to take on a Big Ten runner up.
Utah losing to Oregon most likely sends them to the Cotton Bowl, as long as favorites tend to win their games. The Alamo bowl is a possibility here as well, and if the Utes manage to completely implode and lose to Colorado, they could even wind up in the Sun Bowl. I don't have them losing to Colorado.

So What Does That Mean?
I've broken down all of the odds of these various games for you and generated this grand end-of-season bracket. The most important number to me is right there at the top- the University of Utah has a 6.4% chance of being the 2019 College Football National Champion. The rest follows:

My model is much rosier on the Utes than Vegas, which recently released some ugly lines for Utah against these teams: Clemson -14.5, Ohio State -10.5, and LSU -9.5. My win probabilities, together with their projected Vegas lines, would be something like:

Ohio State -5.5
Clemson -3.5
LSU P/E

There are a few factors that explain that discrepancy. The first is brand. These are playoff games that will have loads of non-sharp bettors putting considerable money down, including many more in east coast markets than we are used to. Since Vegas oddsmakers are betting on bettor behavior, not game outcomes, they will factor in the huge brand difference between Utah and the titanic programs they will be up against. The second is that my model is being stretched to its limits. I designed it to adjust the win probabilities between moderate-to-good conference opponents with lots of history and similar regional footprints, not to pick games between the best programs in the country who virtually never play each other.

Whatever the numbers say, whatever Vegas says, there's no doubt at this point of the fundamental truth- Utah is currently playing for a national title. This is a dream for college football fans across the nation and Utah fans are privileged to be experiencing it for real. Enjoy the ride!