Published Aug 28, 2019
Statistically Speaking: BYU
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Joseph Silverzweig  •  UteNation
Staff
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@jsilverzweig

The long wait is over and the Utah football season is finally upon us. This season holds more promise than any other in a long time, and fans are excited to get to the meat of the Pac-12 schedule, where Utah will prove—or fail to prove—that the hype is justified, and that they belong in the national conversation.

Before then, though, the Utes must make their way through three opponents, and the stiffest challenge by far is the BYU Cougars. Everything that happened last year is out the window, and the two teams face off with new talent, minimal injuries, and a lot more uncertainty about who these teams are.


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All Aboard the Hype Train

Utah has built up a tremendous head of steam when it comes to national buzz, starting off with wonky analysts like Phil Steele and Pick 6 Previews and culminating in Lee Corso picking the Utes to go to the national championship on the inaugural installment of ESPN's College GameDay.

That buzz is earned by their preseason projections, as all of their returning talent and some exciting new prospects hope to build on a very strong 2018 campaign—and earned by a schedule that is a world apart from last year's murderer's row.


Rebuilding the Cougars

BYU, meanwhile, is attempting to put it back together after a historically bad 2017 campaign, finding them 97th in the nation in S&P+. 2018 was a big improvement, but fans have been far from satisfied with a run that has been defined by the Cougar's inability to put it together against marquee opponents.

This presents the perfect opportunity for BYU to break out of that funk—Utah is absolutely a marquee opponent, with an AP ranking of 14 and all that national buzz building. BYU players and fans alike feel that the elusive Holy War victory is always just out of reach, and it will only take a few lucky breaks to get to the promised land.



Reality Suggests Otherwise

BYU has gotten plenty of breaks, although their nature varies year to year: critical injuries to Utah's two best offensive players, incomprehensible rashes of turnovers, and massive swing plays thanks to the maddening, wonderful unpredictability of college football. None of that has been enough to overcome a gulf in talent that seems to grow more insurmountable by the year. Utah has almost carelessly outscored the Cougars in the last few contests, and garbage time scores have created the illusion of a one-score gap between these two teams in the last few years.

The margin isn't massive this year—Utah doesn't promise to score a ton of points, and BYU is a well-constructed, competent team. But there's no mistaking that Utah holds an advantage in any number of critical areas. BYU will struggle to maintain competitiveness, and at the end of the night chants of 'Nine is Here' will echo in a mostly empty Provo stadium.

UTAH 28 BYU 20