Utah's on the glide path now. They should roll right over Arizona, through Colorado, and get to the Championship game. Their dominance has been thorough and remarkably balanced, with one of the best offenses in the country to go along with one of the best defenses.
Utah is a playoff contender now. Not an 'if everything goes right' contender or a 'should be in the discussion' contender. Utah is positioned to compete for a national title if they win their next three games, and can expect to be favored in all three (overwhelmingly this week and next). Although we certainly hope Utah is laser focused on each consecutive game and shutting out the noise, fans are under no such restrictions and may dream of national titles to their heart's content.
As a result, Utah fans will be engaging in a lot of scoreboard watching this weekend to see if the PAC 12 champion's path to playoff continues to widen or starts to narrow down. There are a lot of different ways to assess these games, but from my statistical perspective the two most important are:
Oklahoma (88.1% to win) vs TCU
If TCU can manage to pull off the upset here, a 12-1 PAC 12 champion would be virtually guaranteed a playoff spot, whether over 12-1 Baylor or 11-2 Oklahoma. On the other hand, an Oklahoma victory continues them down the path of potentially hopping the Utes in the rankings, whose next two opponents lack cache or resume. This game causes a 17% swing in the PAC 12 champ's odds of making the playoffs:
-3% if the Sooners win, +14% if they lose.
Georgia (83.3% to win) vs Texas A&M
Georgia losing at some point is critical for the PAC 12. An 11-1 Georgia going up against a 12-0 LSU creates the grim spectre of two SEC teams in the four team field (again). If Georgia manages to gift wrap this game for A&M, that would wound the strength of LSU's loss and potentially keep Georgia out, too.
-3% if Georgia wins, +10% if they lose.
That's all well and good, but of course Utah needs to win their remaining games. There is little intrigue remaining as Arizona and Colorado have been the worst teams in the PAC 12 this season, and Utah is dramatically superior at every single position.
This may be the most lopsided conference game Utah has played to date (although hold that thought for next week). It's the largest spread I've ever picked in a conference game.
Arizona's offense, ranked 43rd for efficiency, will have significant problems scoring against Utah's incredible defensive front and secondary, a unit with a legitimate shot of having more players drafted than any other defense in PAC 12 history. But it's the Wildcat's 88th-ranked defense that will cost them this game. They've fired several coaches, have little talent, and will be hopeless against Utah's dominant run game and lethally efficient passing attack. It's gonna be a long night in Tucson.
Utah 45, Arizona 14
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