Utah has earned a place in the conference championship game, defeating two ranked opponents on their way to a 7-2 conference record. After an unlikely comeback in Corvallis and a few more-likely wins in Berkeley and Pullman, as well as taking care of business in Colorado, the Utes stood atop the tiebreakers and ready for a rematch with the team they earned their best win (arguably, anybody's best win) of the season.
USC story is told as path to the championship much less circuitous, with a virtually uninterrupted steamroll of everyone on their calendar. A few handwaves explain the strikingly close games against the likes of Cal and Arizona and the focus is on the big road win at UCLA, coupled with a painful, last minute loss in Salt Lake City.
Much of the discussion is about the direction these teams are headed, and it mostly goes like this: USC and Caleb Williams are playing their best football of the season, and Utah and Cam Rising have fallen off the pace. With the teams headed in opposite directions as they cross paths in Las Vegas, the Trojans avenging their lone loss of the season would certainly tie this narrative up with a neat bow. It’s just not a story supported by the evidence.
Trends are one of the most tempting mirages in sports. We see some teams performing better week to week—that must mean they got better. Other teams perform worse—that must mean they got worse. Trends are wonderful stories, but they rarely hold up to statistical scrutiny. The Utes and Trojans are no different.
If this looks like a jumbled mess, that's because it is—there are no clear trends in either key offensive or defensive stats for these two teams. They were as likely to fall well above the average performance of their opponents as they were well below, and didn't get noticeably, consistently better or worse in any stat over the course of the season.
These stats aren't as good an indicator of performance as advanced metrics, but if there were team trends, they'd show that story. The one exception may be in Utah's passing stats—after a game long break due to Cam Rising's absence, there's a modest trend upwards back to the early season trends. However, this trend is just a handful of games and includes Oregon—the worst opponent-adjusted performance by the offense all year.
The Trojan tale of the trends is no different. We can tell ourselves stories of teams improving, teams falling apart, but what the numbers show is teams performing about on average over time. When it comes to looking forward, and predicting the result of Friday's contest, the tried and true methods with no special consideration for team trends are still the best choice.
The line stands out in this game. It’s the first time all season advanced metrics have picked a different winner than Vegas. USC is notorious for picking up big bets from fans, and with a lot of them headed to the desert to watch the game that may explain USC being favored despite the metrics liking the Utes.
USC's offense is exceptionally good. Teams need to score touchdowns on more than half of their drives to keep up, and things will start to look very daunting indeed if Utah gets off to a slow start and Caleb Williams and crew rack up double digit points. There aren't many offenses that can keep up, but Utah's is one of them. Dalton Kincaid may not have a best-game-in-history again, but USC is going to struggle to stop him, as it will also open everything ip for Rising’s other targets.
In Salt Lake City, the difference was one last incredible drive and one last incredible rush by Cam Rising to outscore the Trojans. This time, it will be the defense that makes the difference, with critical late stops putting the Trojans off their pace and allowing Utah to run out the clock and into back-to-back trips to the Rose Bowl.
Prediction: Utah 42 USC 35
