Scouting the Baylor Bears
Week 2 – Baylor Bears
Key Player Losses: S Christian Morgan, S Alfahiym Walcott, S Devin Neal, CB Lorando Johnson, CB Mark Milton, NT Siaki Ika, LB Dillon Doyle, WR Gavin Holmes, OG Micah Mazzccua, OT Connor Galvin, RT Khalil Keith, RG Mose Jeffery, C Jacob Gall, OG Grant Miller
Key Player Additions: DE Treven Ma’ae (Oregon), DE Byron Vaughns (Utah St), TE Jake Roberts (North Texas), OG Clark Barrington (BYU), OT Campbell Barrington (BYU), RB Dominic Richardson (Oklahoma St), WR Ketron Jackson (Arkansas), LB Mike Smith Jr. (Liberty), CB Isaiah Dunson (Miami)
2022 Summary
Baylor followed up one of its most successful seasons in school history in 2021, where the Bears won the Big 12 and the Sugar Bowl, with a disappointing 6-7 finish in 2022, including a 30-15 dud to Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Where most teams like to try to reload, Baylor found themselves in a full rebuild. Outside of a veteran offensive line, the Bears had to break in a new starting quarterback (although Shapen won all five games he started in 2021), a true freshman running back, new wide receivers, and nearly an entirely new secondary. This resulted in losses to every ranked opponent they faced, as well as losses to West Virginia and Air Force.
After losing so many valuable starters to the NFL from that Sugar Bowl winning team, the defense dropped off significantly in 2022, surrendering more than 7 points per game on average than the year before.
2023 Outlook
Offense
In 2023, the rebuild continues, and it showed in Saturday night’s loss to Texas State. The Bears lost six key players on the offensive line. The biggest hole to fill will be that of three-year starting center and Big 12 Offensive Lineman of the Year Jacob Gall. They also lost five-year starter and first-team all-Big 12 OT Connor Galvin as well as first-team all-Big 12 OG Grant Miller. RT Khalil Keith, Micah Mazzccua (who is now starting at Florida), RG Mose Jeffery, who all had starts in 2022, are all gone. That leaves LG Gavin Byers, who started seven games last season, as the only returner.
To fill in the gaps, Baylor brought in the Barrington brothers from BYU. Clark Barrington is a solid replacement for Gall. He was a three-year starter for the Cougars, and is a preseason All-American. Campbell Barrington was a solid contributor to the BYU line for two seasons. Redshirt senior Elijah Ellis has only appeared in four games in his four seasons with the Bears, but he will be counted on at right tackle. Redshirt Freshman Kaden Sieracki, who had never played a down prior to the Texas State game last week, is the new right guard. LT Tate Williams will also likely see action.
As for the skill players, Baylor has several key players returning from last season, as well as a few solid additions from the transfer portal. Monaray Baldwin, the team’s leading receiver in 2022 with 33 catches for 565 yards and 4 touchdowns, will return, as will Hal Presley, who had 32 catches for 382 yards and 4 touchdowns. Rounding out the starting receivers is Ketron Jackson, who came over from Arkansas, had 16 catches for 277 yards and 3 touchdowns for the Razorbacks. Josh Cameron, who had 28 catches for 386 yards as a redshirt freshman receiver last season will also be an option.
At tight end, the Bears return starter Drake Dabney, and they also added Jake Roberts from North Texas, who had 28 catches for 394 yards and three touchdowns. Dabney was the focal point of the offense against the Bobcats last week, catching a career-high 6 passes for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns.
The biggest area of strength offensively is Baylor’s running game. They return freshman phenom Richard Reese, who set freshman records with 972 yards rushing and 14 touchdowns. They also brought in Oklahoma State’s Dominic Richardson, who had 149 carries for 543 yards, 8 touchdowns, and another 220 yards receiving last season for the Cowboys. Both were heavily involved against Texas State, but Richardson saw the most action, rushing the ball 16 times for 79 yards.
At quarterback, the Bears return Blake Shapen, who started all 13 games last season. He is a pocket passer, who completed 63% of his passes in 2022 for 2,790 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Despite having such a veteran offensive line, he was also sacked 22 times. However, he injured his MCL Saturday night, and it was announced that he will not play against Utah.
That leaves Sawyer Robertson, a sophomore transfer from Mississippi State that had only attempted 11 career passes before being thrown into the game with six minutes remaining in the game against the Bobcats last weekend. He went on to go 6 for 12 for 113 yards and an interception. He is a former Gatorade Texas Player of the Year, so the potential is there.
Defense
The Baylor defense was abysmal last season, and Matt Powledge was brought in to make improvements as a new defensive coordinator after spending 2022 as Oregon’s co-defensive coordinator. After the poor performance on Saturday, it appears there is still a lot of work to do.
Fortunately for Powledge, he has several returning contributors to build with, despite losing leading tacklers LB Dillon Doyle, who graduated, and S Alfahiym Walcott, who transferred to Arkansas.
However, they do get LB Matt Jones back, along with LB Garmon Randolph, who had 11 starts last season. They also brought in Mike Smith Jr., who led Liberty in tackles (85) and started every game in 2022.
Up front, they’ll return a pair of defensive ends in TJ Franklin and Gabe Hall. They did lose two-year starter and first-team all-Big 12 NT Siaki Ika, and he will be replaced by Cooper Lanz, who played in 12 games last season while collecting 5 tackles. The other defensive tackle spot will be filled by Oregon transfer Treven Ma’ae, who made his first career start last week against Texas State.
The Bears have two returning safety starters in the secondary, FS Devin Lemear, who had 57 tackles, 2 interceptions, and 2 fumble recoveries in his first season as a starter in 2022, as well as seventh year senior and converted LB Bryson Jackson, who had three sacks last season. However, Lemear injured his elbow against Texas State, and he will not play against Utah. Next to them at SS they will start Devyn Bobby, who played in several games last season. The Bears have two new starting corners, RS Sophomore Tevin Williams and RS Junior Chateau Reed. Both have played in reserve roles in the past, but with the departures of Lorando Johnson and Mark Milton, they will be relied upon as starters this season.
Summary
Offensively, the Bears should look a lot like the team the Utes saw last week, the Florida Gators. Robertson will make his first career start, which could be a nightmare against the Utes defense. He is generally a pocket passer, he has the ability to run but doesn’t leave the pocket very often, and if the young offensive line plays like it did against Texas State, he will become very familiar with the turf this Saturday. The Utes registered 5 sacks against Florida’s revamped offensive line, and might be able to exceed that number against Baylor.
Once again, it will be difficult to run on the Utes defense, especially with the likely return of Junior Tafuna and Simote Pepa, which will make life even more complicated for Richardson and Reese to get much going on the ground. This means the Bears will likely have to rely on Robertson to make plays through the air, which could be problematic with so much experience in the Utes secondary and the constant pressure he should face.
Baylor does have a solid group of receivers, especially the speedy Baldwin, who is one of the fastest in all of college football. The emergence of Dabney will also challenge the pass protection of Utah’s linebacker group.
It’s difficult to say if the defense will do any better against Utah than what we saw last week against the Bobcats. The young cornerbacks were exposed several times, as was the interior of the defensive line. Regardless of who will be starting at quarterback, the Utes should be able to take advantage of both areas of weakness and put up more points than they did against the Gators.
Baylor will be looking to make up for its embarrassing home loss against Texas State, and will be at home for a second straight week. It’s possible that the Bears overlooked the Bobcats, and had already spent time preparing for Utah, so a loss to Texas State doesn’t guarantee an easy victory for the Utes.
However, having a young quarterback make his first career start against one of the best defenses in the nation is not an ideal situation for the Bears. Also, allowing 42 points to one of the worst offenses from 2022 doesn’t seem like a good sign against a Utah team that had one of the best offenses a year ago.
With that in mind, it might take one more week, when Baylor plays Long Island, for the Bears to find their first victory of the 2023 season.