The 2022 Pac-12 Championship Game is set. The USC Trojans come in ranked No. 4 in the CFP. The No. 11 Utah Utes, the defending Pa-12 champs, will look to end USC’s storybook season. The game will be televised on FOX and played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas at 5 PM PST (6 PM MST).

Utah publisher Alex Markham and USC publisher Ryan Young have collaborated on a series of Pac-12 Championship Game articles.

Here they discuss how USC wins the conference crown:

Ryan Young

The last two weeks the USC defense has locked down against two elite rushing attacks, showing substantial timely progress in its main area of weakness. It may be obscured by the final score vs. UCLA, but the Trojans held Zach Charbonnet – coming off four straight games of at least 150 rushing yards – to 95 yards. And then they stifled Notre Dame to 90 total rushing yards. So if the defense can build on whatever it has unlocked in that regard the last two weeks and at least not let Dalton Kincaid have another career-best performance, the Trojans should feel good about their chances. Especially with Cam Rising looking like less of a dual-threat in recent weeks. It also wouldn’t hurt if the Trojans tapped into their penchant for forcing a big turnover or two.

Offensively, there’s no reason to doubt Heisman favorite Caleb Williams and Co. Williams played one of his best games of the season in that loss in Salt Lake City against this Utes defense and he hasn’t let up since.

It’s important to remember that USC was in control of that game in Salt Lake City before losing middle linebacker Eric Gentry – probably the second-most important player on the whole defense – and top wideout Jordan Addison to injury. (We don’t have to even get into the questionable roughing the passer penalty that turned a defensive stop into a much-needed Utes touchdown drive). The Trojans have been playing some of their best football of the season and will bring a lot of confidence into this game that they have the formula for a different outcome this time.

Alex Markham

I want to be a smartass and say USC wins if Utah has to kick field goals—that’s a sore subject around Utah though, so let’s not talk about that.

In reality, the Trojans win if they force more turnovers than Utah. On the season, USC has a +23 turnover margin, while Utah is +8. That’s a big difference and the Trojans lead the nation in this category. Both defenses create a ton of turnovers, with Utah just four behind USC.

Utah’s defense has a knack for rising to the occasion at pivotal moments over the years. Look no further than Devin Lloyd’s back-breaking pick-6 in the Pac-12 Championship Game against Oregon last season.

This game is very likely going to be a shootout, and Utah’s defense has upped its game in recent weeks, with Kyle Whittingham stating that the turning point was the second half against USC. The Trojans give up 87.5 yards per game more than Utah, but their “bend but don’t break” approach is working.