It’s game day. That’s right, a game is finally happening for the University of Utah, as they’re the last P-5 team to suit up, due to complications from Covid-19 testing. The Utes won’t have an easy run-up game this year, as they kickoff their season against the no. 20 USC Trojans. Ryan Young, Publisher for Trojans Sports was kind enough to give a little more insight to Clay Helton’s 2020 squad:
With no room for make-up games and a shortened season compared to the other P-5 programs, is USC a real CFP contender when all is said and done?
I think USC has a lot more to worry about at this point than whether the shortened season will impact its playoff candidacy. The Trojans committed 11 penalties against Arizona, continued their confounding redzone struggles while coming away with no points from inside the 10-yard line twice, still have much to prove along the offensive line and have had an underwhelming start from the linebackers, which has kept the defense as a whole from delivering on preseason expectations. To get more to the point, though, they needed a miracle to beat Arizona State (two touchdowns on fourth down and a successful onside kick all within the last few minutes) and then needed another 2-minute drill TD drive to avoid losing at Arizona. This team needs to deliver a performance worthy of reigniting any playoff talk before worry about such matters.
With two late come-from-behind wins, the Trojans are cutting things close. What are their key struggles early on in those two games?
On offense, it's been the short-yardage struggles. They got stuffed on fourth-and-1 twice vs. ASU and stopped on fourth-and-1 and third-and-1 in the red zone vs. Arizona. They aren't getting enough push from the offensive line to this point to succeed in a traditional way on those kind of situations, and they haven't yet tried to adjust. I imagine they will look to do something different this week. On defense, there was considerable preseason hype and optimism that new defensive coordinator Todd Orlando -- with a track record of elevating linebacker play -- could work some magic with USC's LBs. That has not happened yet, and a thin group endured another setback with starter Palaie Gaoteote in the concussion protocol all week and highly unlikely to play Saturday. That leaves sophomore Ralen Goforth (who has a team-high 7 missed tackles through three games) and junior Kana'i Mauga as the projected starters and redshirt sophomore Raymond Scott (who hadn't played any significant snaps until last week and who started preseason camp as a safety) as the likely top reserve. But even with Gaoteote in there, the unit had struggled thus far.
There have been some concerns over an arm issue with Kedon Slovis. He has a near identical completion percentage to last year, so is it really as big of a concern as it should be?
I personally think it's overblown. He's thrown some wobbling, fluttering passes we didn't see last year. Something is askew for sure, but I don't buy into the conspiracy that it's injury-related. USC simply wouldn't have had him throw the ball 98 times (!) the first two weeks if his arm was compromised. Also, teammates were raving about Slovis' accuracy and pinpoint ball placement in the preseason, so I don't sense this has been an issue all along. Clay Helton keeps pointing to the ball being slick -- it was too wet vs. ASU and too dry vs. Arizona, he claims -- but who knows. More likely, it's mental, Slovis has to work through it and the staff is downplaying it so it's not even more in his head. He's thrown some nice passes in the late-game drives the last two weeks, so for now, I'm going to say the concerns are overstated.
If you were Defensive Coordinator, how would you attack Utah’s offense knowing the quarterback is new and the running backs are unproven?
"It only reinforces what Todd Orlando and Co. already want to do -- be aggressive in their blitzes, prioritize shutting down the run and try to make the opposing QB win through the air. There's been one major problem the first two weeks, though -- the Trojans have let the first two QBs they've faced have open lanes to scramble for big gains when the blitz comes. Even Arizona's Grant Gunnell racked up big yards on the ground before some second-half adjustments were made to add a spy over him. They have to clean that up or it undermines the entire approach. But they trust their cornerbacks -- Olaijah Griffin has been especially impressive so far this season -- so I expect a lot of emphasis up front on stopping the run and trying to make things uncomfortable behind the line of scrimmage."
How would you attack Utah’s defense?
USC doesn't change what it does offensively. Graham Harrell doesn't scheme to opponents -- he emphasizes it's a simplistic, execution-based offense. They're going to try to do what they do. A lot of defenses have taken to dropping eight men in coverage to guard against explosive passing plays, and Harrell and Slovis have shown so far they're content to dink and dunk underneath and take what's there. They are adamant about establishing the run game and showing more balance than last year -- to try to ward off those drop-8 coverage looks -- but I'm skeptical they can do it consistently. Of course, last year Utah did allow the Trojans to take their shots downfield, and if that's the case again then they'll certainly try to maximize their advantage at receiver in those matchups.
What’s your prediction for the game and why?
I picked Utah in our podcast earlier this week just out of respect for the Utes as a disciplined team, USC's struggles in the Salt Lake City-Provo corridor the last couple years and the glaring flaws I saw in that win over Arizona. But I've thought more about it and am going to give the nod to the experienced QB and the team that has had two games to identify and try to fix its issues. I'll take USC, 27-24, because I've seen nothing that would make me think this Trojans team can beat anybody by more than one score.