The University of Utah is in control of the Pac-12 South division after a 35-21 win over Arizona State last weekend to stay undefeated in conference play (3-0). The Utes scored 28 unanswered points in the second half after being down 21-7 at halftime. Up next is a road trip to Corvallis, OR to take on the Oregon State Beavers, who are tied atop the Pac-12 North standings with Oregon at 2-1. The Beavers are coming off a bye week after losing to Washington State the prior week. Reser Stadium should be rocking for this contest between two of the best teams in the conference right now.
OSU strength: Running game
Junior running back B.J. Baylor has run for over 100 yards in four of the six games this season. He is averaging 113 yards per game and an outstanding 6.8 yards per carry with 9 touchdowns. Baylor is without a doubt the key to Oregon State’s offense right now, and the high yards per carry average should also be a sign that the offensive line is runblocking very well, too. If Utah’s offense continues its momentum from the second half against Arizona State, Oregon State will need to get the most out of their lead back and keep the ball away from the Utah offense. Oregon State is averaging almost 250 yards rushing this season, but Utah likes to shut down the run to make teams one-dimensional, so on paper, this is a strength-on-strength type of match up.
OSU question mark: Passing game
In the past two games, the Beavers have thrown for a combined 18-41 (43.9%), 206 yards, 3 interceptions, and zero touchdowns. They have rushed for a total of 551 yards in those games, but they are facing a Utah team that allowed only 17 yards on the ground and 80 yards in the air in the second half shutout against Arizona State. The Beavers will need sophomore quarterback Chance Nolan to find the efficiency he had earlier in the season (albeit against weaker competition). The Utes pass rush is also starting to find its groove, so Oregon State could be in trouble if they cannot get the running game going.
OSU X-factor: Third-down defense
Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith discussed third-down defense as a point of emphasis in his Monday press conference this week. The Beavers rank last in the conference in third-down conversions allowed at 48.9% on the season. The Utes were 7 for 11 (63.6%) in their win over ASU, but are only converting at just over 37% on the season. Utah was extremely effective in the second half, particularly late in the game when ASU was still within striking distance and the Utes offense constructed touchdown drives of 11 and 12 plays to put their stamp on the game. Forcing Cam Rising and the Utah offense off the field will be key if OSU wants to knock off the Pac-12 South leaders.
Prediction: Utah 31, Oregon State 17
