Most Important Players: Utah vs Oregon
It’s here. The moment that players, coaches, and fans alike have been waiting for since the end of last season. Utah secured their second straight appearance in the Pac-12 Championship Game with a blowout victory over regional rival Colorado last Saturday night, and will face off against the best team in the Pac-12 North division this Friday night- the Oregon Ducks.
Utah opened up as a 4.5 point favorite, and that line quickly moved to Utah by 6.5. Bettors seem to have a lot of confidence that Utah will win this game, and do so by more than expected. It’s easy to see why, since Utah has covered the spread in each of their last eight wins. Getting a win and claiming their first conference title since joining the Pac-12 will be no small task, however. Oregon is the most talented team that Utah has faced since USC, and will be motivated to spoil Utah’s season and ensure themselves a Rose Bowl berth. These are the players that will need to stand out if Utah is to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Tyler Huntley
After seeing his name on these lists several other times throughout the season, it should come as no surprise that Utah’s signal caller will, once again, be the most important player for the offense. Oregon has the best secondary that Utah has faced all year, and currently stands at 15th in the nation in passing efficiency defense. Utah will more than likely be without Bryan Thompson for a second straight week, as the deep-threat receiver continues to recover from a minor injury sustained against Arizona. Thus, it will fall to other receivers to make plays in his absence, as they did against Colorado.
Huntley has developed a connection with tight end Brant Kuithe over the last few weeks, and has looked for Demari Simpkins and Jaylen Dixon quite a bit throughout the season as well. Dixon was targeted more than usual last week with Thompson being out, and very nearly came away with a pair of touchdown catches. Look for that to continue this week, as Oregon likes to do a lot of the same things that Colorado did on defense to slow down the run, though they have much better athletes from top to bottom to do it with.
Jaylon Johnson
Johnson suffered a minor injury against Colorado, but was able to come back into the game before the coaches decided to pull him to avoid risking further aggravation. It would be surprising if that injury was something that kept him from playing against Oregon, since he is someone that will be of huge importance to the defense on Friday night.
The Ducks have a number of receivers that can do damage, but two to keep an eye on for Johnson to match up with are Johnny Johnson III and Juwan Johnson. Johnson III leads the team in receptions and yardage, and has hauled in six touchdown passes so far this season. He’s a game-breaking athlete that has great burst off the line, though, much like Brandon Aiyuk, he depends more on his speed and agility to make things happen rather than physicality. On the other hand, Juwan Johnson is more the type that can fight for 50-50 balls and use his strength to create separation and make tough catches. He’s no slouch as an athlete, either, though he doesn’t have the same kind of speed that Johnson III does. Juwan doesn't get targeted nearly as often as some of Oregon's other receivers, but he does lead the team in per-catch average, among healthy receivers.
Tareke Lewis matches up favorably with Johnson III, and Josh Nurse has the size and strength to counter Juwan Johnson, so it will be interesting to see if Jaylon shadows anyone throughout the game, as he did against Aiyuk, Isaiah Hodgins, and Laviska Shenault, or if Utah will play a more traditional right/left scheme against the Ducks.
Bradlee Anae
It’s no secret that the greatest strengths of these two teams are the offensive line for Oregon and the defensive line for the Utes. Whoever wins that matchup will likely win the game, and one of the keys to making the Duck offense sputter is keeping Justin Herbert from getting comfortable. Throughout the season, Anae has lined up on the right side of the line, meaning that he’ll generally face off against the opponent’s left tackle. However, in the last couple of games, Utah has introduced a new wrinkle for opposing offensive coordinators to worry about, namely that Anae has lined up on the left side at times. Something to watch will be to see if the same thing happens against Oregon, or if Morgan Scalley prefers to keep Anae matched up against Oregon’s best lineman- left tackle Penei Sewell.
Whoever draws that matchup will be in for a tough game. Sewell, who is just a true sophomore, is NFL-ready, and if eligible, would be a first round pick in the 2020 draft. Finding ways to get pressure on Herbert will be crucial to the defense’s success, so the matchup of Anae and Sewell could be one for the ages. Anae is on the verge of stamping his name in the Utah record books, since he is currently tied with Hunter Dimick at 29.5 career sacks. If he could break that record while going up against arguably the best offensive lineman in the nation, it would be just that much more special.
Darrin Paulo
Oregon has a solid defense from front to back and has the second best rushing defense in the Pac-12, after Utah. They also lead the conference in sacks, and part of that is due to their freak freshman defensive end, Kayvon Thibodeaux. Thibodeaux has a great burst off the line and leads the Ducks in sacks and tackles for loss, with 6.5 and 11.5, respectively. With numbers like those as a true freshman, it’s safe to say that he’ll be a problem for the rest of the Pac-12 for years to come.
Fortunately for Utah, they have a very experienced three-year starter at left tackle in Darrin Paulo. Paulo performed very well overall against Colorado, even as the rest of the line struggled a bit, and seeing as how the Ducks and Buffaloes run a similar scheme, that performance should bode well for how things will play out this Friday. One thing to keep an eye on is if Oregon decides to switch Thibodeaux over to the other side to face off against Simi Moala instead. Moala has struggled a bit recently against pass rushers who line up wide against him, so anticipate Oregon to try and take advantage of that.
Francis Bernard
The other component of Oregon’s offense that Utah will need to account for is their creative run game, which has them ranked second in the Pac-12 in rushing offense. The Ducks have three main guys that they go to on the ground- CJ Verdell, Travis Dye, and Cyrus Habibi-Likio. Verdell is Oregon’s every down back, and leads the Ducks with 963 rushing yards. He has the speed to break off big plays, and is physical enough to pound the ball between the tackles. Dye is more of a speed back, and is comparable to someone like Troy McCormick, to draw a Utah analogy. Dye’s biggest strength is how fast he can accelerate after he gets the ball, and he's often used on sweeps and other motion plays, so that he can hit gaps at near maximum speed. Habibi-Likio is Oregon’s short-yardage back, and actually leads the Ducks in rushing touchdowns, with 10. He’s the most physical of the three, but doesn’t have the speed to break off many big plays unless he has a wide-open lane.
Oregon likes to get their players the ball in space and allow them to use their athleticism to make something happen. Utah will need to counteract that and use their own athleticism on the defensive side to keep the Ducks from making too many explosive plays. As such, a lot will be asked of Utah’s linebackers, and now is the time for Francis Bernard to shine. Bernard has been great for the Utes throughout the season, and was named a first team All-Pac-12 defender by PFF. He will need to help account for Oregon’s run game, which means being his normal reliable self in plugging gaps between the tackles, but also coming out to watch the edges and keeping Dye from getting chunks on the outside. Oregon uses their running backs in the passing game a little bit, but they’re not a staple, and have accounted for just 38 of the Ducks' 270 completions this year. Bernard will need to be solid in his coverage responsibilities, as he has been all year, being aware of running backs going out on routes, but also knowing that Herbert is more likely to look for receivers coming across the middle than he is to find a running back coming out of the backfield.