Inside the Numbers: Weber State

It’s game week! The University of Utah’s Week 1 opponent is Weber State. The Wildcats went 5-1 last season (and by last season, I mean spring of 2021). They went 5-0, rolling through the Big Sky, and then lost 34-31 to S. Illinois in the first round of the FCS playoff. As always, we take a look at the important individual numbers, including their PFF ratings.

Here’s who they lost and what they have coming back...

Who they lost:

RB Wright: Wright was their #3 RB last season, going 44/303 (6.9 ypc) with 3 TD. He’s not on the roster anymore, but I’m not sure where he went. He had a recent announcement that he was accepted to a master’s program at Weber.

OL Tapusoa: Injured middle of last season, is no longer on the roster. Wasn’t a starter, but played in every game in 2019 and 2018.

That’s everyone. A #3 RB and a backup OL. As a reminder, most of the teams we’re facing this year lost very little because nobody aged out. Everyone’s going to have a reasonably experienced team next year, with a couple of exceptions for teams that lost a lot in the draft or transfers or both.

Here’s the injury news:

OG E Atagi (SO): Ethan Atagi is #3 in snaps (340) but is the lowest-rated OL (48.7). He’s the BYU transfer. Started at RT last year and then moved to LG.

S Williams (JR): A transfer from Boise St, Williams played 334 snaps and was rated 78.3 (#2 on team). His stats were not listed on Weber State’s roster, and FCS stats are hard to find, so I’m not sure how he did other than his PFF rating.

So losses were easy to count, since it’s one backup OL and one 3rd-string RB, plus the two injured players.

Now here’s who to expect to see. First, the offense:

QB Barron (FR): Barron went 72/130 (55.4%) for 1071 yards (8.2 ypa) with 7 TD and 2 INT. Barron is a FR, so those are also his career numbers. PFF had him at 79.9 last year, which is pretty good.

QB Johnson (JR): Johnson was the backup last year, but he’s got more experience than Barron (he’s a JR) and started one game last year. He’s more mobile than Barron and his statistics are better in the passing game, but he didn’t pass nearly as much. He went 13/21 (61.9%) for 170 yards (8.1 ypa) with 3 TD and 1 INT. PFF doesn’t like him nearly as well (46.2)

RB Davis (JR): Davis took the most snaps (167) last year and was rated 73.9 by PFF. He was a JR last year and his career stats are 499/2884 (5.8 ypc) with 21 TD. He’s a good RB.

RB McMilan (FR): Weber used a 3-headed monster at RB last year (with Wright, who’s no longer on the roster, as the #3 option). McMillan was the #2 back (125 snaps) in his first year as a Wildcat. He was rated 78.8 by PFF last year and went 63/376 (6.0 ypc) with 5 TDs. He’s also good.

Expect a heavy dose of both RBs. Weber was #14 among FCS teams in rushing yards per game, averaging 206 last year.

WR MacPherson (JR): MacPherson was one of the most-used players last year. He was #3 in snaps (349) and had 19 catches for 345 yards (20.8 ypc). He was rated 72.1 by PFF.

WR Shaheed (SR): Shaheed had 296 snaps last year but wasn’t rated nearly as highly by PFF (65.0). He had 21 catches for 251 yards (12.0 ypc) with 3 TD.

TE Malone (JR): Malone was #3 in snaps among pass catchers (240) but isn’t rated very well by PFF (52.3). He had 13 catches for 206 yards (15.8 ypc) with 3 TDs.

TE Meacham (SO): Meacham was #4 in snaps with 205 but is also rated low by PFF (52.6). He had only 1 catch and appears to be more of a blocking TE

WR Ames (SR): Ames was #5 in snaps (183) and rated below Shaheed (58.7). He had 13 catches for 183 yards (14.1 ypc) with 1TD. He’s listed as the starter at one receiver spot.

WR Christensen (SO): Christensen was #6 in snaps (58) but was rated higher than most of the WR above him (70.1). He had 4 catches for 50 yards (12.5 ypc).

Weber State isn’t as good at passing as they are at running (they were 41st last year among FCS teams with 213 ypg). Their QBs are good, but their WR/TE aren’t great. Lock down MacPhearson and you can pretty well shut them down on offense.

OG Whitworth (SR): Whitworth was tied for first among the OL in snaps with 405. He is the highest-rated OL by PFF at 73.1 and is on several preseason FCS All-American lists. He played mostly RG last year, but also played the final game at LT (which was his highest-rated game). Still, he’s spent most of his time at RG and that’s where I expect him to play and where he’s listed on the depth chart.

OC Bos (SR): Bos was also tied for first in snaps with 405, but is the 2nd-lowest rated OL at 53.8. He’s a 4-year starter, but was never rated above 61 by PFF.

OT N Atagi (SO): Noah Atagi is #4 in snaps (321), just behind his brother, but he’s much higher rated (64.9). Played LT all last year and all of his FR year as well. He’s listed as the starting LT.

OT Barrera (SO): Barrera is #5 in snaps (283) and is rated in about the middle of the OL (58.3). He started at LT but then moved over to RT after the first game. He’s listed as the starter at RT in the depth chart.

Weber State's depth chart for the Utah game also lists Tauteoli (SO) at LG. He only played 1 game last year and was rated 59.7, but also played 1 game in 2019 and was rated at 62.6. He’s stepping in for Atagi.

The OL isn’t great, outside of Whitworth, who is very good. Expect a lot of pressure and not much running room, particularly with Utah’s LB corps being as good as it is. Still, Weber State was a good offense last year. They were #18 in yards per game (419) and #26 in points per game (28). This is a good offense and Utah needs to take them seriously or they’re going to get surprised early.

Here’s the defense:

DE Tarlas (JR): Tarlas is #5 in snaps on the defense (333) and rated pretty well (68.3). He had 24 tackles, 5.5 tfl, 2.5 sacks and 1 pbu in 6 games last year. Listed as the starter on the depth chart.

DT J Schiess (SR): Sheiss was #8 in snaps last year (275) and was rated 71.3 by PFF. He had 17 tackles, 1.5 TFL, and 1 sack. Listed at starter on the depth chart.

DT Lapuaho (JR): Lapuaho was #11 in snaps last year (240) and was rated 70.7 by PFF. He had 9 tackles, 2 TFL and 1 sack last year. Listed at starter on the depth chart.

DE Lutui (FR): Lutui was #18 in snaps last year (125) and was rated 71.4 by PFF. He had 13 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack, 1 PBU, and 1 INT last year. Listed as an “or” starter at the other end with a player named Mitton.

Those four are the likely starters. They have a lot of backups with significant experience as well, as follows:

DT Moli (JR): Moli was #16 in snaps last year (135) and was rated the highest on the team at 79.6. He had 7 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and 2 PBU last year. He’s backing up Lapuaho.

DT D Scheiss (SO): The younger Scheiss had 132 snaps last year (#17 on the team) and was rated 67.8. He had 5 tackles and 1 TFL last year. He and Palauni are both backing up his brother at DT.

DT Palauni (SR): Palauni played 110 snaps last year (#19 on the team) and was rated 69.8. He had 6 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 1.5 sacks last year. Listed at OR backup to J. Scheiss

As mentioned above, there’s a player who didn’t play last year listed as an “or” starter with Lutui, McKade Mitton (JR): He played about 150 snaps in both 2019 and 2018 and was decently rated (70.3 in 2019; 67.2 in 2018)

Weber State also has several linebackers who played a lot last year.

LB Mortensen (SR): Mortensen was #1 in snaps last year with 451 and was highly rated by PFF at 74.4 (#5 on team). He had 52 tackles, 11.5 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INT, and 5 PBU last year. Listed as starter at OLB

LB Lavaka (SR): Lavaka was #7 in snaps last year with 300. He was rated 68.5 by PFF and had 26 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 PBU and 1 FF. Listed as a starter at MLB.

LB Johnson (JR): Johnson played 108 snaps last year (#20 on the team) and was rated 69.2. He had 10 tackles, 2 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and 1 PBU last year. Listed as an “or” starter on OLB, but isn’t as experienced as the others (or as some of the backups).

LB Reid (SO): Reid played 139 snaps and was rated 64.3 last year. He had 15 tackles, 1 TFL and 1 PBU last year. He’s listed as “or” starter with Johnson.

There are two other linebackers who had over 100 snaps last year...

LB Maxfield (FR): Maxfield did pretty well his first year. He played 248 snaps (#9 on team) and was rated 65.3. He had 12 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INT and 2 PBU. Listed as backup to Tarlas at DE, but played OLB last year.

LB Taufalele (SR): Taufalele had 175 snaps last year and was rated 63.8. He had 10 tackles and 1 PBU. Listed as backup to Lavaka.

I suspect that Weber State plays a decent amount of 4-2-5 based on the number of snaps for the #3 linebackers and the number of snaps for the #3 corners. Still, their base D is a 4-3.

As for the secondary, here’s what we’re looking at...

CB Heckard (SO): Heckard started all last year and played 445 snaps. He’s also highly rated at 76.1 (#3 on team). He had 30 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 INT and 10 PBU last year. Listed as starter on one side.

S Smith (SR): Smith was an FCS All-American and started five games last year, 4 at FS and 1 at SS. He played 371 snaps and was rated 74.8 (#4 on team). He had 21 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 sack, 3 INT, and 5 PBU. Listed as starter at SS.

CB Anderson (SO): Anderson started 4 games last year with 313 snaps and a 70.5 PFF rating. Like Williams, Weber State’s roster doesn’t have his stats, so other than a decent PFF rating, I don’t know much about him. He’s listed as the backup to Collins.

CB Garrett (SO): Garrett only started one game, but played a lot with 247 snaps. He was rated 71.1 by PFF and had 17 tackles, 1 TFL and 3 PBU last year. He’s listed as the backup to Heckard.

Weber State had two other DBs play more than 100 snaps last year, even though they didn’t start.

CB Collins (JR): Collins actually started 3 games, but played fewer snaps (218) than those listed above. He was rated 65.7 and had 14 tackles, 2 TFL, 0.5 sacks, 1 INT and 3 PBU. Collins is listed as the starter opposite Heckard.

S Harris (SO): Harris started one game at FS and played 137 snaps. He was rated well (73.2) and had 8 tackles, 1 TFL and 3 PBU last year. He’s listed as starter at FS because of the injury to Williams.

Weber State's defense is experienced, but their talent in 2020 was on offense, not defense. They were the #57 defense in yards per game and were #26 in scoring defense.

Overall, Weber is going to be one of the toughest FCS teams we’ve ever faced. Head coach and former Ute Jay Hill is doing a very good job in Ogden and he’s got an experienced team that made the FCS playoffs for the last five years and was undefeated in their regular season in 2020. Those games happened only six months ago, so they won’t have a lot of rust either. I fully expect them to get an early score and scare the Utes before we take control in the 2nd half. Still, it’s an FCS team and even a very good FCS team won’t be a match for Utah if they’re taking this seriously, and I know Kyle won’t let his team overlook his old protégé, nor will he try to run up the score. Utah 31, Weber 16.