Rough game last week, but it’s a new week against the team that has over-performed expectations (when it comes to Utah games) more than nearly any other. WSU has been a schematic nightmare for Utah. Here’s every game since Utah joined the PAC 12:
2011: Utah wins 30-27 (Leach isn’t HC yet)
2012: Utah wins 49-6 (Leach’s first year, they went 3-9)
2013: Utah loses 49-37 (Utah ranked #34, WSU #40, per Sagarin)
2014: Utah loses 28-27 (Utah ranked #24, WSU #81, per Sagarin)
2017: Utah loses 33-25 (Utah ranked #35, WSU #38, per Sagarin)
2018: Utah loses 28-24 (Utah ranked #23, WSU #20, per Sagarin)
The past 4 games Utah is 0-4 despite being ranked ahead of WSU every year except last year. The average gap is small if you exclude the 2014 WSU team (a fairly clear statistical outlier), with Utah ahead #29 to #33. This year’s final Sagarin numbers are unknown, but teams rarely fall dramatically in his rankings (that’s not 100% true, but it’s generally true, with the average movement being about 8 spots one way or the other). Right now he’s got Utah at #27 and WSU at #32 (almost exactly the average over the past 4 games). So Sagarin’s not much help. He expects a close Utah win, which is what most computers would have expected the past 4 years.
FPI gives Utah 64.1% to win. As I’ve mentioned previously, FPI doesn’t like Utah (it relies on recruiting rankings too much for Utah’s benefit). Last week it gave USC 58% to beat Utah and was correct. Let’s hope it’s equally right this week.
Here’s what WSU lost from last year:
QB Minshew: 468/662 (70.7%) for 4779 yards (7.2 ypa) with 38 TDs and 9 INT. The mustache was a fantastic QB and as I’ve mentioned, Leach getting that team (with all of its personnel losses and turmoil) to 11 wins was one of the most spectacular coaching jobs in college football history.
RB Williams: 122/560/12 rushing (that’s like 20 rushing TDs in any other offense) plus 83/617/4 receiving last year, the Junior declared for the NFL. While he was not drafted, he is on the roster for the Cowboys.
RB Harrington: 14/45 rushing and 9/57 receiving, the SR was a career backup who never really lived up to the promise he showed his FR year when he ran for 6.4 ypc on 37 touches and caught 43 passes for 312 yards.
WR Sweet: 33/342 as a SR. He was 7th in catches and yards and was the only WSU receiver who had at least 10 catches who didn’t have a TD catch. Not a huge loss.
OL Dillard was a first round selection last year for the Eagles. Started 39 games at LT the three prior years. He’s their only loss from last year’s OL.
DL Comfort. Was #6 defensive graded player last year, had 23 tackles, 4 TFL, and 2 sacks plus 1 FF
DL Tago. Was #11 defensive graded player last year, had 29 tackles, 10.5 TFL, and 3 sacks
DL Begg. Was a part-time starter (graded #27 on their defense). Had 10 tackles, 1.5 TFL
LB Pelluer. Graded at #7 last year, but was their leading tackler (97 total, plus 10.5 TFL and 4.5 sacks with 3 PBU and 2 FF)
CB Molton. Graded at #25 last year with 44 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INT and 8 PBU.
CB Harper. Graded #4 last year, but only played in 6 games. Had 22 tackles and 3 PBU in those 6 games.
S Thompson. Some sort of NCAA issue made him ineligible so he declared for the supplemental draft and was taken by Arizona. Was the #2 rated defensive player last year with 66 tackles, 3 TFL, 2 INT and 8 PBU plus 1 FF.
S Dale was not rated very well by PFF (#19 on WSU’s defense) but he started every game last year and had 58 tackles, 5 TFL, 0.5 sacks, and 1 PBU.
S Singleton only played in 8 games, but was the #1 defensive rated player for WSU when he was on the field (and he had 119 snaps, so it wasn’t just mop-up duty). Not a starter, but a solid backup.
So losses on Offense were QB and 2 top RBs, but the defense was gutted (as UCLA made clear last week), losing 3 DL, 1 LB, 2 CB and 3 S.
Here’s who Utah will be facing:
QB Gordon. He’s a WSU QB, so of course he’s their #1 rated player on either side of the ball (89.6). He’s got 137/183 (74.9%) for 21 TD and 4 INT in only 4 games. The kid, like every WSU QB any of us can remember, is a baller.
RB Borghi. 41/325/4 (7.9 ypc) and rated 70.9. He’s a decent RB but not spectacular. His numbers are good because he rarely gets used running the ball (averaging just over 10 carries per game, with 15 of those coming in the UCLA game while they tried, in vain, to get some time of possession advantage and give their defense a chance to rest. Borghi’s it, nobody else had 10 carries yet.
WR. PFF really likes Winston (81.2 and rated #2 on offense for WSU, has 26/348/8 receiving), and thinks Arconado (74.1; 25/352/1) and Patmon (73.5; 17/290/3) are okay. It’s not as big of a fan of Martin (68.2; 20/238/2). For comparison, Dixon’s at 78, Vickers is at 76.7, and Thompson is at 71.2. Both Winston and Patmon fumbled against UCLA. Basically Winston is a good WR, the rest are pretty interchangeable.
OL. PFF likes one starting T (Lucas, 80.6), but the rest of the starters are less impressive (G Valencia, 66.7; T Ryan, 66.4; G Watson, 66.1; C Mauigoa, 60.5). For comparison, Utah’s starting OL is rated about the same, as follows: C Toala, 67.6; T Paulo, 67.2; C Umana, 66.8; G Ford, 65.2; G Daniels, 58.3.
DL. PFF likes one of WSU’s starting DL, DE Oguayo. He’s their #1 rated player on defense at 82.6 and has 7 tackles, 2 TFL and 0.5 sacks so far. The other starting DL are not as well-rated, with DE Stone at 61.3, DT Rodgers at 59.4, and DT Aiolupotea at 57.3.
LB. PFF also likes one linebacker, but it’s backup Brown (81.9). Of the starters it’s less impressed, rating Rogers at 60.7 and Woods at 55.4 (the 3rd-lowest rated starter on defense)
CB. PFF thinks WSU’s corners are poor, and the more snaps the worse the rating. Those with at least 50 starts are Nunn (58 snaps, 72.5), Marsh (83 snaps, 70.5), Langford (132 snaps, 62.5), Hicks (104 snaps, 62.3), Strong (248 snaps, 61.1), Isom (228 snaps, 57.5). Basically they are average at best.
S. PFF hate’s WSU’s safeties, with Beekman at 52.7 and Thomas at 40.4 (the only starter below 50). They’re the two lowest-rated starters, and 2 of the 3 lowest-rated players. WSU can be beaten deep, as UCLA showed, so let’s hope Huntley is ready to test them.
So WSU’s offense doesn’t appear to have missed a step, but their defense is atrocious. Don’t expect 28-24 this year, even in a monsoon. I like Utah by 6 here, in a higher-scoring one that any Utah fan will be comfortable with: 41-35 Utah.
