Alright, it’s Utah’s first Pac-12 South game is this weekend and second Pac-12 game overall for 2021. The current #2 team in the South (Utah) faces the current #3 team (USC). USC is 3-2, losing to Stanford and Oregon State already. They’re wildly inconsistent, with grades ranging from 89.3 (against SJSU) to 63.2 (against OSU). Here’s what they lost from last year and what the Utes are likely to see this week:

Who they lost on offense:

LT - Vera-Tucker: Vera-Tucker was a superstar LT who went in round 1 to the Jets to protect former Ute fan Zach Wilson. He played 1,533 snaps in his career and was grated 81.8 last year. He was a fantastic OT and even for a team like USC he is tough to replace.

WR - St. Brown: Another St. Brown, Amon-Ra played 1,725 snaps as a Trojan and was selected in the 4th round by the Lions. He graded 71.7 last year (and was consistently at that level, grading 73.9 in 2019 and 75.0 in 2018). He was #1 in receptions (41), #2 in yards (478) and was a clear #1 in TD catches with 7. Career he was 178/2270 (12.8 ypc) with 16 TD.

WR - Vaughns: Vaughns was a 4-year starter with 2,671 snaps. He had his worst grade as a Trojan last year, at 67.9, but generally was a mid-70s player. He had 33 catches (T#2) for 406 yards (#3) and 3 TD (T#2) last year. Career he had 222 catches for 2801 yards (12.6 ypc) with 20 TDs. He went as a Free Agent to the Colts.

WR - McCoy: I’m not sure the status of McCoy. He’s listed on the roster but as far as I know he hasn’t been practicing since a summer arrest and suspension for domestic violence. He’s not being charged after his arrest, but he still has not played any snaps. I’m going to assume he’s not playing, but that may not be correct. He had 210 snaps last year (his first) and caught 21 passes (#4) for 236 yards (#4) with 2 TD. He was rated 64.9.

RB- Carr: Carr transferred to Indiana in the off-season. He was a 4-year player, but only an occasional starter, with 1,038 snaps in 4 years. He had 46/176 (3.8 ypc) with 2 TD last year and had 264/1319 (5.0 ypc) with 12 TD in his career at USC.

So one great OL, three receivers, and a decent but not great RB. That’s not a ton of offensive talent to replace.

Here are the defensive losses:

DE - Tremblay: Tremblay was a part-time starter who played 347 snaps as a Trojan before transferring to Tennessee this offseason. He was rated 58.6 last year and had 3 tackles and 0.5 TFL. For his Trojan career he has 21 tackles, 3.5 TFL and 2 sacks.

DT - Tuipulotu: Tuipulotu was a 4-year player and 3-year starter at DT and played 1,336 snaps. He was rated 74.9 last year and went to the Eagles in the 6th round. He had 23 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 2 sacks and 1 FF last year. For his career he has 104 tackles, 15 TFL, 8.5 sacks, and 2 FF.

DT - Pili: Pili suffered an injury this offseason and is out the entire 2021 season. He was a part-time starter, with 997 snaps the past 4 years. He was rated 58.4 last year and had 5 tackles. For his career he has 49 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 3 sacks, and 3 PBU.

DT - Murphy: Murphy was a part-time starter who played 500 snaps as a Trojan before transferring to UNLV. He was rated 61.9 last year and had 3 tackles. He had 18 tackles, 1.5 TFL and 1 sack for his Trojan career.

LB - Gaoteote: Gaoteote transferred to Ohio State this offseason. He was rated 54.0 last year for USC and had 9 tackles, playing in only two games. Still, for his career as a Trojan he had 105 tackles, 7.5 TFL, and 2 sacks.

CB - Griffin: Griffin was a 3-year player and 2-year starter with 1,129 snaps. He was rated 79.6 last year and went to the Bills as a free agent. He had 22 tackes, 1 TFL, 1 INT, and 3 PBU last year. For his career he has 67 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 INT and 13 PBU.

CB - Williams: Williams was the #3 corner last year, playing 272 snaps (and 397 career snaps). He was expected to take over a bigger role this year but tore a ligament in his knee in the offseason and is probably out the entire season. He was rated 67.4 last year and had 22 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 0.5 sacks and 1 PBU. Those are basically his career numbers, as he had 5 tackles and 1 PBU in 2019.

S - Hufanga: Hufanga was a 3-year player and started some games all three years, playing 1,442 snaps as a Trojan before going to the 49ers in the 5th round of the draft. He was rated 83.9, #1 on the defense, and had 62 tackles (#1), 5.5 TFL (#1), 3 sacks (#2), 4 INT (#1), and 1 PBU. For his career he has 203 tackles, 16.5 TFL, 6.5 sacks, 4 INT and 9 PBU. He was a great safety and will be tough to replace.

That’s a lot more defensive losses than offensive losses, particularly in the backfield. Hufanga and Tuipulotu in particular are tough pieces to replace.

Now here’s who to expect this week. First, the offense:

QB - Slovis: Slovis has played 302 snaps this year and 1,471 in his Trojan career. He’s rated 76.2 this year, going 102/158 (64.6%) for 1118 yards (7.1 ypa) with 7 TD and 4 INT. He has been good in all their games, but probably cost them the OSU game, throwing 3 INT. He also threw one against Stanford, which didn’t help. He’s also had 4 fumbles (1 against Stanford, 2 against OSU, and 1 against Colorado).

QB - Dart: Dart only played against WSU, going 30/46 for 391 yards (8.5 ypa) with 4 TD and 2 INT. He was rated well in that game (75.8), but hasn’t played in any other games.

Slovis is a future NFL QB. Dart was good against WSU, but their defense isn’t very good so it’s hard to say right now how good he is. Still, Utah is likely to only see Slovis this week.

RB - Ingram: Ingram and Malepeai are a 1-2 punch and get used at roughly the same rate. Ingram has 180 snaps, 62 carries for 349 yards (5.8 ypc) with 3 TD. He’s rated 72.9 this year. This is his first year as a Trojan after 3 years at Texas.

RB - Malepeai: As I mentioned above, both Ingram and Malepeai get used significantly. Malepeai has 174 snaps, 52 carries for 216 yards (4.2 ypc) with 1 TD. He’s rated 69.4 this year. This is his 5th year as a Trojan, with 1,097 carries in his career.

Both RBs are solid, as with the QBs. Neither is a game-changer, but because they’re used almost interchangeably, USC is able to call any play regardless of which RB is on the field.

WR - London: London is the clear #1 WR with 316 snaps and a rating of 86.5. He has 48 catches (more than the next three pass catchers combined) with 670 yards (14.0 ypc) with 4 TD. This is his third year as a Trojan and he’s played 1,233 snaps in his career. He’s absolutely a deep threat, catching 12/15 targets beyond 20 yards.

WR - Washington: Washington is the #2 WR, with 280 snaps this year after transferring from Memphis. He’s poorly rated at 59.8 and has 18 catches for 221 yards (12.3 ypc) with 1 TD. He’s best on short routes (13/15 targets) but his 1 TD was one of his two catches beyond 20 yards.

WR - Bryant: Bryant is the #3 WR with 205 snaps this year, his 2nd as a Trojan. He has 14 catches for 110 yards (7.9 ypc) with 3 TD. He’s a possession receiver, with 11 of his catches within 10 yards of the LOS, although one of his TD was also over 20 (his only catch over 20 yards).

Basically the WR are average except for London, who is fantastic. Expect to see him double-teamed most of the game.

TE - Krommenhoek: Krommenhoek is the only TE with over 100 snaps, getting 194 this year. He’s poorly rated at 51.4 and while he’s run 104 routes, he has only 7 catches for 64 yards (9.1 ypc) and 1 TD.

TE - Epps: Epps is the #2 TE by snaps with 89. He’s also poorly rated at 57.1 in his first year as a Trojan after transferring from Texas. He has 4 catches for 51 yards (12.8 ypc).

TE - Trigg: Trigg is the #3 TE by snaps with 80. He’s slightly better rated at 62.2 and has 6 catches for 102 yards (17.0 ypc).

The TEs are also pretty average or bad. They’re not much of a concern, with only 1 TD between the three of them. Trigg is a true freshman and has potential, but none of them have shown to be serious threats as pass catchers.

LT - Ford: Ford has started every game this year at LT and is the lowest-rated starting OL at 59.8. He’s played 344 snaps this year and played 53 last year. He’s slightly better as a pass-blocker at 63.7, but isn’t great at either job. He’s given up 6 QB pressures this season. There will be opportunities for Tafua this week.

LG - Voorhees: Vorhees has started every game at LG this year and is the highest-rated starting OL at 79.5. He has 329 snaps this year and 2,198 in his career. He’s given up only 1 QB pressure.

C - Neilon: Neilon has started every game at C with 373 snaps and a rating of 73.5. He’s also a better pass-blocker (82.8) than run-blocker (70.2). He’s played 1,587 snaps in his career. He’s given up only one QB pressure.

RG - Jimmons: Jimmons has started every game at RG this year with 309 snaps and has a rating of 74.8. He is roughly equal in both phases at 79.0 pass blocking and 78.0 run blocking. He has 920 snaps in his three years as a Trojan. He’s given up 2 QB pressures.

RT - Monheim: Monheim has started every game at RT this year with 294 snaps and has a rating of 67.3. He has 330 snaps in his Trojan career. He’s almost exactly equal at pass blocking (65.2) and run blocking (65.1). He’s given up 9 QB pressures this year.

OG - Dedich: Dedich is the backup Guard. He has played 120 snaps this year and is rated 72.9. He’s played 408 snaps in his career. He’s given up 1 QB pressure this year.

OT - McKenzie: McKenzie is the backup Tackle and has played 99 snaps this year. He is rated 54.3 this year and has played 1,624 snaps in his career. He’s given up 2 QB pressures this year.

The tackles are very young and poorly-rated. The middle of the line is good, but there will be some opportunities for pressure on the outside. Overall the offense really lives and dies with Slovis. He is terrible under pressure (31.8 rating while under pressure opposed to a 89.3 rating while clean), so getting pressure on him will be crucial to slowing down USC’s offense and forcing turnovers. They are #37 in total offense with 439.2 yards per game, and #42 in scoring offense at 33.4 points per game.

Now a look at the defense:

DE - Tuipulotu: Tuipulotu has played 247 snaps at DE this year and 448 for his Trojan career. He’s rated #1 on the defense at 87.5 and has 9 QB pressures, 24 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 sack and 1 FF.

DE - Jackson: Jackson has played 205 snaps this year and 1,158 for his Trojan career. He’s #2 on the defense at 85.6 and has 16 QB pressures, 17 tackles, 4 TFL, 3 sacks, 1 INT, 1 PBU, and 1 FF.

DT - Ta’ufo’ou: Ta’ufo’ou has played 220 snaps this year and 270 for his career. He’s rated 63.9 and has 8 tackles and 1 TFL

DT - Lichtenstein: Lichtenstein has 206 snaps this year and 395 for his career. He’s rated 72.7 this year and has 6 QB pressures, 13 tackles, 3.5 TFL, and 2 sacks.

This is a good DL and Utah’s OL needs to have improved dramatically during the bye week or they’re going to struggle. Ta’ufo’ou is the weak link on the DL, but he’s not terrible, and the other three are all very good.

LB - Mauga: Mauga has the most LB snaps with 267 and is rated 55.6, which is bad. He’s had a couple of good games against the run, but is missing tackles and playing poorly in coverage. He has 25 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack, 1 PBU and 1 FF. He has 1,205 career snaps in 4 years at USC.

LB - Goforth: Goforth has 160 snaps this year and is rated 57.7. He has played 507 snaps in three years at USC. He has 20 tackles this year.

LB - Echols: Echols has 160 snaps this year and is rated 59.0. He has 678 snaps in four years at USC. He has 4 tackles this year.

LB - Scott: Scott has 146 snaps this year and is rated 47.4. He has 254 snaps in three years at USC. He has 12 tackles and 0.5 TFL this year.

USC’s LBs are bad. There should be some space for the TEs and RBs both passing and running, as long as the OL can make some holes against the very good USC DL.

CB - Steele: Steele is #1 in corner snaps with 262 this year. He has 1,191 career snaps in 3 years and is rated 59.5 this year. He’s given up 9 receptions on 11 targets and has 14 tackles.

CB - Johnson: Johnson is #2 in corner snaps with 188 this year and 1,041 in 4 years at USC. He’s rated 57.1 this year and has given up 17 receptions on 23 targets. He has 17 tackles, 2 TFL, and 1 INT.

CB - Taylor-Stewart: Taylor-Stewart is one of two USC corners with a good rating (74.1). He has 180 snaps this year and 817 career snaps in 4 years. He has given up 7 receptions in 14 targets and has 13 tackles, 1 INT and 1 PBU.

CB - Jackson: Jackson has 118 snaps this year and is rated 67.7. This is his first year at USC. He has 8 tackles and 1 INT this year and gave up 3 receptions on 5 targets.

CB - Williams: Williams has 101 snaps and is rated 82.6. He’s played every game but Stanford this year and has 128 snaps in 2 years. He has 3 tackles and 1 INT this year and has given up 2 receptions on 6 targets.

S - Williams: Williams has played 269 snaps this year and 908 in his 4 years at USC. He’s rated 54.6 this year and has 27 tackles and 0.5 TFL.

S - Pola-Mao: Pola-Mao has played 213 snaps this year and 1,544 in his 4 years at USC. He’s rated 53.8 and has 24 tackles and 1 PBU.

S - Bullock: Bullock has played 162 snaps at both safety spots in his first year as a Trojan. He is rated 70.1 and has 17 tackles, 1 PBU, and 1 INT.

USC’s secondary isn’t great. They’ve #86 in passing efficiency defense and have given up 219.4 yards passing (#61). Taylor-Stewart is good and the backup corners and safety are good in limited use, but there are some openings in the secondary. The question will be whether Utah’s WRs can take advantage.

This is a very good DL but not a great USC defense. They’re 61st in passing yards allowed, 68th in rushing yards allowed, 62nd in total defense, and 70th in scoring defense. Utah will have some opportunities, but the OL has to improve significantly. Let’s hope that’s happened.

USC is better on offense than defense. Utah’s defense is okay, but keeps getting left out to dry by the offense. Expect more scoring than normal. Utah will have a chance, especially if they limit their own turnovers and force some USC turnovers, but I can’t predict a Utah win.

Prediction: Utah 24, USC 33