Throughout the 2021 season, Ohio State has had to adjust their defensive game plans accordingly. That’s a standard practice, but the Buckeyes required it due to some defensive deficiencies, linebackers in particular.
The Buckeyes made a change at the Defensive Coordinator position after the Oregon game, demoting Kerry Combs and going to secondary coach Matt Barnes. With that, they started to evolve from a 3-3-5 defense to more of a 4-2-5. The linebacker position had been a weakness on their time and then it got worse over time due to depleted depth, partly necessitating the switch.
Heading into the Rose Bowl, this could create a matchup nightmare for the Ohio State defense. On the season, the Buckeyes rank no. 98 overall in passing defense, giving up 246.9 yards per game. Against the run, they give up 118.5 yards per game, ranking no. 18 overall. The problem Utah presents them, is that their offense is very similar to Michigan’s. The Utes have weapons to soften the defense and keep them on their heels, while offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig excels at keeping team’s guessing.
Because of this, Utah is likely to attack the middle and the second layer of the defense as much as the opportunity presents itself and that should open up running lanes for Utah’s running back trio of Tavion Thomas, TJ Pledger, and Micah Bernard.
Tight ends Brant Kuithe and Dalton Kincaid have proven to be elite up the middle of the field for Utah. Additionally, Cole Fotheringham had proven to be a reliable safety blanket for Utah quarterback Cam Rising. What this means is that even when a play isn’t designed to go to that portion of the field, that weak spot is still there and open to be targeted, either with Fotheringham or one of Utah’s running backs.
Adding on to some of the Buckeyes struggles, Utah slot receiver Britain Covey should be anticipated to be an offensive focal point. Utah's elusive game-breaker will be motivated and looking to deliver one of his biggest games as a Ute for his final time in a Utah uniform.
What makes the Utes even more dangerous for the Buckeyes is the play-action element of their offense, something Rising excels at setting the defense up with. The play of Utah’s First-Team All-Pac-12 quarterback will be vital in defeating the Buckeyes and he has the weapons to expose and take advantage of the Ohio State weakness.
To the Buckeyes’ credit, despite their weakness on defense, they rank no. 25 overall in scoring defense, giving up 20.9 per game. Meaning, teams may move the ball against them, but the Buckeye defenders hold strong in the red zone.
Let’s take an in-depth statistical look at what the opposing quarterbacks have done to the Buckeyes, this season. The numbers below are based on passer rating, not overall rating:
Tanner Morgan (Minn). Rated 51.4: This is his second-worst grade of the year (behind BGSU where he was 31.3). His average is 74.1 for the season. He went 14/25 (56%) for 205 yards and was fairly equal in play action grades (8/12 for 118; 52.7) and non play action (6/13 for 87; 53.3), although slightly better on play action. He threw mostly short and medium over the middle (2/2 for 24 yards under 10 yards; 6/9 for 105 yards between 10 and 20 yards). He had no passes connected deep (0/4 total).
Anthony Brown (Oregon). Rated 65.0: This is his 6th best game of the year passing, but he ran okay (he had 229 yards passing and 8 rushing attempts for 65 yards). His overall season rating is 65.9. He wasn’t super accurate, going 17/35 (48.6%) for 229 yards with 1 TD, but he was MUCH better on play action passes (11/18 for 138 yards, rating of 86.5) than regular passing (6/17 for 91 yards, rating of 48.9). He connected once long (1/4), and had a lot of short and middle passes all over the field (2/3 medium left, 2/4 medium middle, 1/2 medium right, 4/7 short left, 4/8 short middle, and 1/2 short right).
Quarterbacks after the Defensive Coordinator change
Davis Brin (Tulsa). Rated 79.8: This is his fourth-best game of the year (his overall rating is 75.4). He’s a slightly mobile QB (183 yards this year), but didn’t rush much against OSU (one scramble for 4 yards). He was solid with play action (6/12 for 61 yards, 69.8 rating) but was better on regular passes (26/44 for 366 yards, 79.5 rating). He threw all over, but mostly middle (32 of his 56 passes were between the hash marks). His best area was medium middle (9/13 for 171 yards and 1 TD) and long middle (3/4 for 71 yards). He was also not bad short (16/25 for 146 yards on passes under 10 yards)
DJ Irons (Akron). Rated 43.4: This is his second worst game (behind Buffalo where he was 29.7), mostly because he threw two picks. His overall season rating is 57.6. He ran a little bit, with 2 rushes for 53 yards (and he is a mobile QB, rushing for 448 yards in 8 games this season). He only ran 5 play action passes, was sacked twice and went 0/3 on the other three. Generally he was most successful short (11/19 for 86 yards with 1 TD) but also threw both of his picks short. He completed only 2 passes beyond 10 yards on 8 attempts.
Noah Vedral (Rutgers). Rated 45.7: This is poor for him and his overall rating is 55.5. He went 16/26 overall and was much better on play action (7/10 for 105 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT, rating 64.9) than on standard passes (9/16 for 47 yards with 2 picks, 37.2 rating). He was fairly balanced throwing forward, but threw a lot of passes behind the line (10/13). He threw 6 short, 2 medium, and 5 long, going 4/6 short, 1/2 medium, and 1/5 long.
Taulia Tagovailoa (Maryland). Rated 57.9: This is a bad game for him (10/12) and he is rated 86.5 overall. He runs somewhat, with 45 attempts and 276 yards, but only has three games over 40 yards and only one over 50. He was pretty equal on play action (10/14 for 87 yards and 1 INT, rating 56.2) and standard passes (18/25 for 192 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT, rating 59.6). He threw a lot behind the line (12/13) and short (13/15) and had only a few passes beyond 10 yards (3/6 medium; 0/2 long).
None of the Indiana QBs had more than 7 attempts - Tuttle went 4/7, McCulley went 1/6, and Gremel went 3/4.
Sean Clifford (PSU). Clifford was rated 74.6: That is his 5th best game, and overall he’s rated 72.0. He runs a little bit (32 attempts for 296 yards and 2 TD). He was 12/17 on play action for 137 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT and a rating of 73.2. He was 23/35 on standard passes for 224 yards and a rating of 71.8. He also threw a lot behind the line (13/15) and short (11/14), although he did have a lot of passes to the middle of the field specifically (middle medium was 9/11 for 153 yards). He only had 5 throws over 20, going 2/5.
Adrian Martinez (Nebraska). Martinez was rated 61.8: This was a poor to middling passing game for him (8/11). Overall he’s rated 70.4. He’s certainly a running QB, having 78 attempts for 683 yards and 13 TD on the ground. He went 10/17 on play action for 196 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT (rating 64.6). He went 6/14 on standard passes for 52 yards, but didn’t throw any picks and was rated 58.1. He had 6 behind the line (6/6), 9 short (5/9), 8 medium (3/8), and 5 long (2/5)
Aidan O’Connell (Purdue). O’Connell was rated 87.6: His 3rd best game of the year. His overall rating is 90.5. He’s not a running QB at all, with only 19 yards rushing. He went 10/13 on play action passes for 127 yards and 1 TD (87.4 rating) and 30/39 on standard passes for 263 yards and 3 TD (81.1 rating). He threw all over, going 25/29 short, 2/7 medium, and 5/8 long.
Payton Thorne (MSU). Rated 56.3: Thorne only had two worse games. His overall rating is 74.0. He went 5/14 on play action for 75 yards (54.6 rating) and 9/22 for 83 yards and 1 TD on standard passes (58.4 rating). He was most successful short (6/10), but also tried some middle passes (3/10) and a few long ones (0/4).
Cade McNamara (Michigan). Rated 68.7: This was his seventh best out of 13 games. His season rating is 76.8. He only threw 19 passes against Ohio State, going 4/6 on play action for 73 yards and 1 INT (54.3 rating) and 9/13 for 86 yards on standard passes (74.9 rating). His passes were mostly short (7/9), but took some longer shots too, going 1/3 on mid-range passes and 2/3 on long passes.
What Ohio State will see in the Rose Bowl
Cam Rising. 2021 Season Rated 80.7: Rising’s overall pass rating would make him the third best passing QB OSU has faced, behind Purdue’s O’Connell and Maryland’s Tagovailoa. He’s gone 57/95 (60%) for 751 yards and 8 TD on play action passes (85.2 rating) and 130/203 (64%) for 1,528 yards and 10 TD with 5 INT on standard passes (74.2 rating). He has gone 15/45 long for 453 yards with 4 TD and 2 INT (93.0 rating), 40/65 medium for 639 yards with 6 TD and 1 INT (77.8 rating), 94/128 short for 910 yards with 6 TD and 2 INT (65.8 rating), plus 38/42 for 277 yards and 2 TD when throwing behind the line (69.2 rating).
