Time for the University of Utah to bounce back against a solid SDSU squad. The Aztecs went 4-4 last year, beating UNLV, USU, Hawaii and CSU but losing to SJSU, Nevada, CU, and BYU. So far this year they’re 2-0, beating NMSU and Arizona.

Who they lost on offense:

LT Spalding: Spalding was a 2-year starter (1,562 snaps) and was rated 82.8 last year. He was a UFA for the Chargers but I don’t think he made the active roster.

LG Capra: Capra was a 2-year starter (1,433 snaps) after transferring from Oregon in 2018. He was rated 72.6 last year. He was a UFA for the Packers but also didn’t make the active roster.

QB Baker: Baker started 2020 and was rated 58.8. He transferred to W. Kentucky. For SDSU he had 365 snaps, went 78/129 (60.5%) for 789 yards (6.1 ypa) with 4 TD and 3 INT.

TE Givan: Givan transferred to SDSU from Ball State for 2020, played a lot (290 snaps) but wasn’t rated very well (48.3). He transferred to SE Louisana in the off-season. His career numbers are 54/386 (7.1 ypc) with 6 TD. He only caught 3 passes for 34 yards for SDSU, however, so not a huge loss.

WR Benson: Benson played 103 snaps last year, but hasn’t played a snap this year. He is still on the roster, but also was not on the post-spring depth chart. He played 102 snaps last year and was rated 61.7.

QB Brookshire: Brookshire was hurt against Arizona, and it’s not clear if he’ll play. He’s played 316 snaps in his career and he’s rated 71.6 this year by PFF. His career stats are 59/108 (54.6%) for 708 yards (6.6 ypa) with 4 TD and 3 INT. He’s not great, but he’s young and improving. He’s also fairly mobile, going 33/103 (3.4 ypc) on designed runs (not including sacks).

That’s a fairly high number of offensive losses, but only the OL are significant, assuming Brookshire plays. If Brookshire is out, then the losses of both QBs leaves very little available at that position.

Here are the defensive losses:

S Thompson: Thompson was a 4-year starter who played 3,013 snaps in his career and 528 snaps last year. He was rated 74.0 last year, but his first three years were all over 80. He was a good safety, #1 in tackles for SDSU last year and with career stats of 210 tackles, 11 TFL, 1 sack, 11 INT and 23 PBU. He went to the Bills as a UFA but didn’t make the active roster.

CB Hall: Hall was a 3-year starter who played 1,808 snaps in his career and 525 last year. He was rated 77.8 last year, his best year as an Aztec. He was #3 in tackles for the Aztecs last year, and his career numbers were 134 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 6 INT, and 25 PBU. He was drafted in the 4th by the Falcons.

S Johnson: Johnson was a 2-year starter who played 1,346 snaps in his career and 453 last year. He was rated 69.3 last year but 87.3 in 2019. He was #2 in tackles last year and had career stats of 148 tackles, 4 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INT and 8 PBU. He went to the Falcons as a UFA but didn’t make the active roster.

DE Mitchell: Mitchell played 200 snaps last year, but only started against BYU. He was rated 59.2 last year by PFF and had 614 career snaps for SDSU. His career numbers are 25 tackles, 5.5 TFL, and 3 sacks. I’m not sure where he went, but he’s no longer on the roster.

Every other defensive player with at least 100 snaps is back. The loss of three secondary leaders, including both safeties and their best corner are significant losses. We will see if Utah’s passing game can take advantage this week.

Now here’s who to expect this week. First, the offense:

QB Johnson: If Brookshire doesn’t play, expect Johnson. He’s played 20 snaps this year (the only QB with any snaps besides Brookshire) and has 184 in his career. He transferred from GA Tech before the 2020 season. His PFF rating last year was 76.8, but that was on only 76 snaps, so it’s hard to know how good he is. His career stats are as follows: 36/62 (56.5%) for 371 yards (6.0 ypa) with 2 TD and 1 INT.

RB G Bell: Bell was 2nd-team all MWC last year and has played 381 snaps in his career (including 75 so far this year). He’s rated 78.3 this year and has career stats of 186 carries for 1096 yards (5.9 ypc) with 8 TD. He also has 15 catches for 128 yards and 1 TD.

RB Williams: Williams is the #2 RB and has 29 snaps so far this year (and 243 career). He’s rated 65.1 by PFF right now. His career stats are 108 carries for 460 yards (4.3 ypc) with 1 TD plus 9 catches for 94 yards.

RB C Bell: The “other” Bell has played 25 snaps this year and 466 snaps in his career. He’s rated 60.3 so far this year and his career stats are 202/905 (4.5 ypc) with 5 TD plus 18 catches for 137 yards.

Greg Bell is a good back and Utah’s run defense will need to be prepared. I suspect they’re going to come out pissed after last week, but they’ll need to get penetration in the line early. Even if Brookshire is healthy, expect a lot of running this week because SDSU has three experienced backs and will want to rely on them to keep their QB out of trouble.

WR Matthews: Matthews has 65 snaps this year and 1,082 career. He’s rated 52.9 this year and his career stats are 74/969 (13.1 ypc) with 3 TD.

WR Smith: Smith has 60 snaps this year and 1,021 career. He’s rated 54.3 this year and his career stats are 82/989 (12.1 ypc) with 6 TD.

WR Shavers: Shavers has 49 snaps this year and 348 career. He’s rated 63.9 this year and his career stats are 10/127 (12.7 ypc) with 1 TD.

WR Kothe: Kothe has 40 snaps this year and 550 career. He’s rated 53.6 this year and his career stats are 31/368 (11.9 ypc) with 1 TD.

WR Busby: Busby has 33 snaps this year and 517 career. He’s rated 51.3 this year and his career stats are 31/317 (10.2 ypc) with 1 TD.

WR Richardson: Richardson has 30 snaps this year and 354 career. He’s rated 51.5 this year and his career stats are 16/220 (13.8 ypc) with 1 TD.

The WRs are all pretty interchangeable. Similar PFF ratings, similar stats. They’re not great and should give our secondary the chance to get back on their feet, especially if Brookshire isn’t playing.

TE Bellinger: Bellinger has 115 snaps this year and 1,331 career. He’s a 3-year starter and is rated 64.3 this year. His career stats are 41/537 (13.1 ypc) with 3 TD. He’s the team’s leading receiver by a long way this year, with almost as many yards (123) as the next three players combined (129).

TE Rudolph: Rudolph has played 66 snaps this year and played 4 last year. He’s rated 66.0 this year. He does not yet have a catch as an Aztec.

Bellinger is a good TE, but not great. Rudolph so far has been mostly a blocker, with only 5 of his 70 snaps being used with him running a route, and he’s never been targeted. If he’s on the field, expect a run play.

LT Thomas: Thomas has 1,511 career starts and is rated 91.9 so far this year. He’s better run blocking, but he’s been a decent pass blocker this year. This is his third year as a starter, but he played mostly RT before this year.

LG Martinez: Martinez has 355 career starts and is rated 62.1 this year, which is below average.

C Uluave: Uluave has 706 career starts and is rated 66.9, which is okay. He’s a much better run blocker (67.7) than pass blocker (40.1).

RG Dunkle: Dunkle has 1,377 career starts and is a third-year starter. He’s rated 76.8 this year, which is pretty good. As with most of their OL, he’s rated better as a run blocker (81.8) than a pass blocker (64.6)

RT Crenshaw-Dickson: Crenshaw-Dickson is a fairly new player, with 127 snaps this year and 133 career. He’s a significantly better pass blocker (79.2) than run blocker (57.7). Overall he’s at 63.2. .

Again, expect a lot of running. The OL is heavy, from LT to RT they weigh 300, 310, 305, 330, and 320, and they’re built for running. Even with a healthy QB they ran a lot (42 passing plays, 89 rushing plays). Now, with an injured QB or a backup QB, expect even more.

Now a look at the defense. A reminder, SDSU runs a 3-3-5 thanks to Rocky Long, even though they have a fairly new DC.

DE Banks: Banks has 1,344 career snaps and is rated 76.6 this year on 100 snaps. That’s a good rating. Banks has 65 career tackles, 20.5 TFL, 4.5 sacks, 2 PBU, and 1 FF.

DE Thomas: Thomas has 1,107 career snaps and is rated 80.3 this year on 99 snaps. That’s a very good rating, but he was significantly better-rated against NMSU (86.3) than Arizona (64.9). Thomas has 94 career tackles, 23 TFL, 10.5 sacks, and 2 PBU. He’s a good DE.

DT Tavai: Tavai has 631 career snaps and is rated 69.1 this year on 101 snaps. He was significantly better-rated against NMSU (73.2) than Arizona (60.7). He has 44 career tackles, 10 TFL, 6 sacks, and 1 FF.

LB McDonald: McDonald has played 1,200 career snaps and 108 so far this year. He’s rated 70.2, which is solid. He was also way better rated against NMSU (75.5) than Arizona (59.7). He has 77 career tackles, 18.5 TFL, 9.5 sacks, 1 INT, 5 PBU, and 1 FF.

LB Lakalaka: Lakalaka hasn’t started this year, but he has 521 career snaps and actually more snaps this year than the two starters below, with 93. He’s rated 60.2 this year, which is not great. He has 45 career tackles, 6.5 TFL, 0.5 sacks, 1 INT, 1 PBU, and 1 FF.

LB Aleki: Aleki has played 83 snaps this year and 1,217 in his career. He’s a 5th-year Senior and is rated 65.9 this year. He’s another who was significantly higher-rated against NMSU (71.4) than Arizona (58.7). He has 110 career tackles, 8 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 INT, and 3 PBU.

LB Olubi: Olubi has played 80 snaps this year and 234 in his career. He’s rated 67.8 this year, which is okay. He has 24 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INT, and 2 FF.

DB Thompson: Thompson played 131 snaps this year and 1,556 career snaps. He’s rated 56.3 this year, which is bad. He has 151 career tackles, 8.5 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INT, 9 PBU, and 1 FF.

DB Hawkins: Hawkins played 123 snaps this year and 1,231 career snaps. He’s rated 80.6 this year, which is excellent. Hawkins has 117 career tackles, 5 TFL, 2 INT, and 8 PBU.

DB Tumblin: Tumblin has played 94 snaps this year, and only 2 snaps previously. He’s rated 75.7 this year, which is very good. He has 11 career tackles and 4 PBU.

DB Avinger: Avinger actually started before Tumblin took his spot. He has 69 snaps this year, his first year on the field. He’s rated 60.2. He has 6 tackles.

S Barfield: Barfield has 285 career snaps and 143 this year. He’s rated 68.3, which is solid. He played SS against NMSU and FS against Arizona. He has 20 career tackles, 3.5 TFL, 1 INT and 2 PBU.

S McMorris: McMorris has 253 career snaps and 140 this year. He’s rated 75.0, which is pretty good. He played FS against NMSU and SS against Arizona, and was rated much better against NMSU (77.2) than Arizona (64.2). McMorris has 22 career tackles, 2 TFL, 1 INT, and 2 PBU.

This is a decent defense. They have a ton of experience at all three levels, although there are some younger players in each level. Still, for the most part they were average against Arizona, so if Utah’s offense plays as well as we know they can, they should be able to both move the ball and put points on the board.

SDSU is going to have to run the ball well this week, and they can’t let Utah score fast and force them to be a passing team. Those are both tall orders against what is going to be a very angry Utah team. I expect a blowout, even against a good SDSU team. If this one’s close, or Utah loses, they’re in for a long season.

Prediction: Utah 41, SDSU 16.