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football Edit

Inside the Numbers: Oregon State

The University of Utah is now alone in the lead of the Pac-12 South. In fact, Utah is the only team undefeated in conference play right now. Oregon State is somewhat of a surprise in the North, currently tied with Oregon for first place, with their only conference loss to WSU last week, 24-31. Let’s talk about what they lost from last year and what we’ll see this week. Starting off, let’s talk about losses from last year.

First, here’s who they lost on offense:

QB - Gebbia: Gebbia started 4 games last year before suffering a hamstring injury which has kept him out of this season so far. I’m not sure he’s definitely out for the year, but I don’t expect to see him this week. He was rated 83.3 last year (#1 on the offense) and went 80/129 (62.0%) for 824 yards (6.4 ypa) with 3 TD and 3 INT.

RB - Jefferson: Jefferson started every game last year and had 1,148 snaps in his OSU career. He was rated 79.3 last year, which was #2 among the offensive starters. He had 514 carries for 2923 yards (5.7 ypc) with 27 TD plus 43 receptions for 299 yards (7.0 ypc) and 2 TD. He was a good running back and was taken in the 7th round by the Lions.

RB - Tyler: Tyler played 78 snaps last year and 115 in his OSU career, before transferring this offseason to Utah State. He was rated 60.4 last year and had 15/45 (3.0 ypc) with 2 TD.

WR - Taylor: Taylor had 845 snaps and was a part-time starter the past two years. He medically retired after last year. He had 49 catches for 536 yards (10.9 ypc) with 2 TD in three years.

OG - Montibon: Montibon started and played in only 2 games last year, including the Utah game, and was rated 58.9 last year on 161 snaps. He suffered several injuries in his OSU career and I suspect he medically retired, although I didn’t find confirmation of that.

Those are the losses on offense. Gebbia and Jefferson were both big losses, as they were the two top-rated offensive players by PFF, but as we’ll see below, both have been replaced by equal or improved talent.

Here are the defensive losses:

DL - Hodgins: Hodgins had 434 snaps last year and 1,608 in his OSU career. He was rated 69.3 last year and had 28 tackles, 1.5 TFL, and 1.5 sacks last year. He is currently out after suffering a foot injury in fall camp. His expected return is soon, so it’s possible he could be back this week, but he hasn’t played yet this season.

DL - Bennett: Bennett played 109 snaps last year and 134 as a Beaver before transferring to Fresno State last offseason. He was rated 60.2 last year and had 8 tackles, 1 TFL, and 1 PBU.

DE - Rashed: Rashed had 372 snaps last year and 1,505 in his OSU career. He was rated 57.6 last year and had 23 tackles, 2 TFL and 1 PBU. He got a FA contract with the Jets.

LB - Taumoelau: Taumoelau had 146 snaps last year and 1,002 in his OSU career. He was rated 33.8 last year, but that was his worst year by far. He had 10 tackles and 0.5 TFL. He is no longer on the roster, but I couldn’t find what happened to him.

LB - McCartan: McCartan played 85 snaps last year and 736 career snaps. He was rated 47.1 last year and had 6 tackles, 0.5 TFL, and 1 INT. He suffered an injury but I don’t know when he’s expected back.

LB - Garcia: Garcia played 55 snaps last year and 198 career snaps. He was rated 46.6 last year and had 3 tackles.

CB - Wright: Wright had 390 snaps last year and 914 in two years at OSU. He was rated 69.8 last year with 30 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, 2 INT, 4 PBU, and 1 FF. He gave up 13 receptions on 24 targets, which is a pretty good ratio. He was taken in the third round by the Cowboys.

CB - Dunn: Dun had 249 snaps last year and 1,861 in his OSU career. He was rated 59.0 last year and had 13 tackles and 3 PBU. He gave up 9 catches on 21 targets, which is a good ratio. He got a FA contract with the Jets.

That’s a good number of good defensive losses, particularly Hodgins, Wright, and Dunn. The fact that OSU is 2-1 in conference play, despite losing so much on both sides of the ball is impressive. They’ve improved significantly under the current coaching staff.

Now here’s who to expect this week. First, the offense:

QB - Nolan: Nolan has played 349 snaps this year and 558 career snaps. He’s rated 81.4 this year and has 78/123 (63.4%) for 1053 (8.6 ypa) with 9 TD and 5 INT.

QB - Noyer: Noyer actually started the Purdue game and has played 52 snaps this year, after transferring from CU last offseason. He was rated 31.7 in the Purdue game and is 11/24 (45.8%) for 101 yards (4.2 ypa) with 0 TD and 2 INT.

Nolan’s last two games against the Washington schools were rated significantly worse (50.2 and 60.2) than his four prior games, which were all above 77.4. He was below 50% completion in both games (7/15 against UW and 11/25 against WSU) with no TDs and 3 INTs. It is possible defenses are figuring him out, but he’s still a good QB and is currently the top-rated passer in the Pac-12 (82.5) and the #3 QB on offensive score (81.4).

RB - Baylor: Baylor has 208 snaps this year and 487 in his career. He’s rated 78.5 this year and has 99/678 (6.8 ypc) with 9 TD. He’s the #5 rated RB in the Pac-12 by run grade (82.1) and the #7 RB in the Pac-12 by overall offensive score (78.5)

RB - Lowe: Lowe has played 109 snaps this year and is rated 60.1. He only played 6 snaps last year after transferring from UW in 2019. He has 22 carries for 121 yards (5.5 ypc).

RB - Fenwick: Fenwick has played 95 snaps this year after transferring from S. Carolina last year. He’s rated 75.7 and has 50 carries for 318 yards (6.4 ypc) with 3 TD.

Baylor and Fenwick are a solid 1-2 punch. Lowe is more often a blocking back, but he’s capable of running if needed. OSU runs a lot (242.5 ypg, good for #9 in the country)

WR - Bradford: Bradford has played 222 snaps this year and 1,615 in his career. He’s rated 72.6 this year and has 15/204 (13.6 ypc) but no TDs. He’s been targeted 24 times and has only one drop.

WR - Beason: Beason has played 221 snaps this year and 481 in his career. He’s rated 55.5 this year and has 9/98 (10.9 ypc) with 1 TD. He’s been targeted 13 times and has 2 drops.

WR - Flemings: Fleming has played 135 snaps this year and 840 in his career. He’s rated 67.6 this year and has 5/117 (23.4) with 1 TD. He’s been targeted 9 times and has no drops. He’s their deep threat, as 6 of his 9 targets and 3 of his 5 catches were over 20 yards.

WR - Gould: Gould has 92 snaps this year and 156 in his career. He’s rated 72.4 this year and has 9 catches for 149 yards (16.6 ypc) and 1 TD on 10 targets with no drops.

WR - Harrison: Harrison has played 78 snaps this year and played 55 last year after transferring from Florida St. He’s rated 77.5 this year and has 10 catches for 129 yards (12.9 ypc) with 1 TD on 15 targets with 2 drops.

WR - Lindsey: Lindsey has 72 snaps this year and 575 in his OSU career after transferring from Nebraska after the 2018 season. He’s rated 79.7 this year and has 10 catches for 162 yards (16.2 ypc) with 3 TD on 15 targets with 1 drop.

All of these WR are pretty good, with everyone but Beason rated above average and Bradford, Gould, Harrison and Lindsey all rated in the 70s. OSU isn’t a passing team (199 ypg is tied for #96 in the country), but they use their WRs effectively.

TE - Stivers: Stivers and Hatch are used about equally. Stivers has 131 snaps this year (and 224 in his ASU career after transferring from Harvard before last season) but has only run 14 routes. He’s rated 53.1 this year with no catches.

TE - Quitoriano: Quitoriano has 326 snaps this year and 1,337 snaps in his career. He’s rated 73.1 this year and has 10 catches for 123 yards (12.3 ypc) with 2 TD on 12 targets with no drops.

TE - Musgrave: Musgrave has 324 snaps this year and 695 snaps in his career. He’s rated 58.4 this year and has 7 catches for 81 yards (11.6 ypc) on 17 targets with 2 drops.

Out of 650 TE snaps, the TEs have run 192 passing routes (29.5%). They are used in the passing game, but more often are blocking.

LT - Gray: Gray has 408 snaps this year and is rated 76.0. He’s much better run blocking (81.9) than pass blocking (49.2)

LG - Levengood: Levengood has 338 snaps this year (936 career) and is rated 76.9. He’s a good run blocker (79.2) but isn’t bad pass blocking (67.9)

C - Eldrige: Eldridge has 408 snaps this year and is rated 76.1. He has 1,000 snaps in his three years at OSU after two years starting for Arizona. He’s better run blocking (77.2) but isn’t bad pass blocking (66.5)

RG - Keobounnam: Keobounnam has 407 snaps this year (1,580 career) and is rated 75.1. He’s solid both run blocking (76.1) and pass blocking (71.8)

RT - Kipper: Kipper has 378 snaps this year (1,757 in his OSU career) and is rated 75.8. He’s better run blocking (77.2) and is average pass blocking (64.4)

OL - Brewer: Brewer has 115 snaps as a true freshman, playing in reserve all over the line. As is the theme with OSU’s OL, he’s a better run blocker (78.6) than pass blocker (48.6)

OSU runs about 57% of the time and is much more effective running the ball. They are effective passing when the running game is working. They run some play action (about 37%), but are more effective on regular passing plays. Expect them to try and establish the run early.

Now a look at the defense.

DL - Sandberg: Sandberg has 264 snaps this year and 939 in his career. He’s rated 56.9 this year, has 12 QB pressures, 5 tackles and 1 TFL.

DL - Schad: Schad has 180 snaps this year after transferring from Minnesota last year. He’s rated 59.4 this year and has 8 QB pressures, 9 tackles, 1.5 TFL, and 0.5 sacks.

DL - Rawls: Rawls has 144 snaps this year (353 in his career) and is rated 70.7. He has 5 QB pressures, 10 tackles, and 2.5 TFL.

DL - Anderson: Anderson has 114 snaps this year (305 in his career) and is rated 61.3. He has 6 QB pressures, 5 tackles, 1 TFL, and 1 sack.

This is an average DL, but it’s a 3-4 defense, so they’re mostly asked to take up space. None of them are great pass rushers, and only Rawls is an above-average run defender. There can be room for the running game if the OL plays well.

MLB - Roberts: Roberts has played 400 snaps this year and 1,423 in his career. He’s rated 48.9 this year. He’s rated particularly poorly in coverage (29.7) and has 11 missed tackles, but he does have 16 QB pressures, 62 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT, 1 PBU, and 1 FF.

MLB - Speights: Speights has 397 snaps this year and 1,409 career snaps. He is rated 59.5 this year. He’s average or below in all categories and has 5 missed tackles, but has 7 QB pressures, 39 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 0.5 sacks, 2 INT, and 1 PBU.

OLB - Hughes-Murray: Hughes-Murray has 300 snaps this year and 1,763 career snaps in 5 years at OSU. He is rated 69.9 this year with 19 QB pressures, 23 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 4 sacks, and 1 PBU.

OLB - Sharp: Sharp has played 285 snaps this year and 885 career snaps. He’s rated 54.7 this year with 14 QB pressures, 16 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 3 sacks, 1 INT, and 1 PBU.

OLB - Saluni: Saluni has played 122 snaps this year, his first year, and is rated 52.9. He has 3 QB pressures and 6 tackles.

OLB - Stover: Stover has played 104 snaps this year and 137 in his career. He’s rated 61.0 and has 7 QB pressures and 3 tackles.

OLB - Lolohea: Lolohea has 87 snaps this year, his first year, and is rated 76.7. He has 5 QB pressures, 6 tackles, 0.5 TFL, and 0.5 sacks.

Lolohea has played well in limited action. The other linebackers are not rated well.

CB - Austin: Austin has played 407 snaps this year and 869 in his career. He’s rated 59.3 this year. He has given up 22 receptions on 40 targets (55%) and has 28 tackles, 1 INT, and 4 PBU.

CB - Wright: Wright has 392 snaps this year and 402 in his career. He’s playing well in his first full season, rated 72.2. He has given up 20 receptions on 38 targets (52.6%) and has 25 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INT, and 6 PBU.

NB - Grant: Grant has played 399 snaps this year and 1,656 in his career. He’s rated 58.5 and has given up 18 receptions on 29 targets (62.1%) with 26 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 INT and 3 PBU.

S - Oladapo: Oladapo has 392 snaps this year and 638 in his career. He’s rated 69.4 this year and has given up 7 receptions on 15 targets (46.7%), with 20 tackles, 0.5 TFL and 4 PBU.

S - Julian: Julian has 286 snaps this year and 409 in his career. He’s rated 79.6 this year and has given up 8 receptions on 14 targets (57.1%) with 31 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1 INT, and 3 PBU.

S - Hardge: Hardge has 112 snaps this year, his first year playing after transferring from Illinois in 2018. He is rated 55.4 this year and has given up 10 receptions on 13 targets (76.9%), plus 11 tackles and 1 PBU.

S - Arnold: Arnold has 57 snaps this year and 584 career. He’s rated 64.5 this year and has given up 1 reception on 1 target (100%) with 5 tackles, 1 TFL, and 1 PBU.

Wright is a good corner, but the rest of the corners are struggling. The starting safeties are solid.

OSU is playing good run defense, giving up only 104.7 ypg on the ground (#20 in the country). They’re not doing nearly as well against the pass, giving up 276.5 ypg (#113 in the country), although they’re doing better on passing efficiency defense (124.5 is good for 45th) and are average in sacks (2.17 per game, good for 67th). It looks like they’re playing high risk pass defense, giving up yards but getting 10 INT (only 4 teams have more).

Oregon State is playing well, but they’ve struggled somewhat the last two games. I suspect the tape has given opponents the ability to scheme better than before against their current team. It’ll be interesting to see what improvements they make from their BYE week. Utah can stop the run and should be able to run and pass. If Utah avoids turning the ball over, I expect them to win comfortably.

Prediction: Utah 28, OSU 17

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