Alright, the University of Utah needs just one more win to get their third bid to the Pac-12 Championship Game in the past four years. This week they face the no. 3 Oregon Ducks. Let’s take a look at who they lost from last year and who Utah is likely to be seeing on the field this week.

First, here’s who Oregon lost on offense:

QB - Shough: Shough started 401 snaps last year and 459 in his Oregon career, before transferring to Texas Tech in the offseason. He was rated 61.5 and went 106/167 (63.5%) for 1559 yards (9.3 ypa) with 13 TD and 6 INT

TE - Kampmoyer: Kampmoyer played 200 snaps last year and 752 in his career. He was rated 71.8 last year and went 14/161 (11.5 ypc) with 3 TD. He got a free agent shot with the Chargers, but didn’t make the final cut.

RB - Habibi-Likio: Habibi-Likio played 80 snaps last year and 295 in his Oregon career before transferring to Boise last offseason. He was the clear #3 RB and was rated 57.9. He went 19/36 (1.9 ypc) with 4 TD.

RB - Verdell: Verdell has 179 snaps this year and 1,304 in his career. He’s rated 75.9 this year and has 77 carries for 397 yards (5.2 ypc) with 5 TD plus 9 catches for 83 yards (9.2 ypc) with 2 TD. He was injured against Stanford and hasn’t played since.

WR - Johnson: Johnson has played 389 snaps this year before leaving the WSU game with a leg injury. He’s rated 71.5 and has 25 catches (#2 on team) for 311 yards (#2 on team) (12.4 ypc), with 1 TD.

WR - Pittman: Pittman has played 404 snaps this year and 753 in his career. He is rated 55.3 and has 12 catches for 197 yards (16.4 ypc) on 24 targets (50%) with 1 drop. He blocks (197) about as often as he runs routes (207). UPDATE: He hit the transfer portal a couple days ago.

OG - Walk: Walk has played a ton this year, but got hurt against WSU last week. He has 577 snaps this year and 1,027 career. He’s rated 77.3 and is better run blocking (78.7) than pass blocking (70.3). He has 2 penalties this year.

The loss of Johnson is serious, but it’s possible he will play. Walk is sort of a multitool for the OL, playing both guard spots and center before getting hurt against UW. He’ll be missed. Shough was okay, but as we’ll see below, his replacement is an improvement. Kampoyer was a good TE, but not utilized much by Oregon, and Habibi-Likio was a third option, mostly for short yardage situations.

Here are the defensive losses:

DL - Au. Faoliu: The elder Faoliu played 296 snaps last year and 1,500 in his career. He was rated 61.9 last year and had 7 QB pressures, 19 tackles, 1.5 TFL, and 1 sack last year. He got a UFA in Dallas and has played a little bit.

DL - Scott: Scott played 270 snaps last year and 1,804 in his career. He was rated 68.5 (#6 on defense) and had 8 QB pressures, 15 tackles, 2 TFL, and 1 sack. He ended up with the Vikings, but I don’t know if he has played.

LB - Slade-Matautia: Slade-Matautia played 413 snaps last year and 1,343 in his Oregon career before transferring to SMU this offseason. He was rated 64.5 last year (#11 on defense) and had 8 QB pressures, 49 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 1 sack, 5 PBU.

LB - An. Faoliu: The younger Faoliu played 181 snaps last year and 261 in his career. He was rated 59.3 and had 12 QB pressures, 13 tackles, 2 TFL, and 1 sack. He transferred to Boise but hasn’t played there.

CB - Lenoir: Lenoir played 485 snaps last year and 2,507 in his career. He was taken in the 5th round by the 49ers. He was rated 65.0 (#10 on defense) and had 35 tackles, 1 INT, and gave up 18 receptions on 33 targets (54.5%).

CB - Williams: Williams started the first four games at corner and played 191 snaps before getting hurt against Arizona. He was rated 75.4 this year and had 20 tackles, 1 TFL, 3 INT, and gave up 9 catches on 13 targets (69.2%).

S - Pickett: Pickett played 287 snaps last year and 2,029 in his career. He was rated 57.7 and had 39 tackles and gave up 12 receptions on 20 targets (60%). He signed with the Lions but hasn’t played.

S - Stephens: Stephens has 449 snaps this year and 600 in his career. He’s rated 56.4 and has 33 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 PBU and 8 missed tackles. He’s given up 12 receptions on 23 targets (52.2%). He was hurt against Colorado and hasn’t played since.

Scott, Slade-Matautia, and Lenoir were all solid players last year. Williams was playing really well before his injury. The rest were fairly average, but none of them were bad.

Now here’s who to expect this week. First, the offense:

QB - Brown: Brown played 664 snaps so far this year and is rated 76.7 (#4 on offense). He’s gone 171/264 (64.8%) for 2039 yards (7.7 ypa) with 13 TD and 3 INT plus 109 rushing attempts for 551 yards (5.1 ypc) and 8 TD.

Brown is a good QB, but not a great QB. He’s rated 8th in the Pac-12 in passing grades (his grade is 68.0, just ahead of CU’s Lewis and just behind UCLA’s DTR), but he’s 7th in overall offensive grades (between DTR and De Laura), and he’s third in running scores (behind ASU’s Daniels and DTR and just ahead of Cal’s Garbers). He spreads the ball around a lot, as 13 players have at least 5 catches and 10 have at least one TD catch.

RB - Dye: Dye has 401 snaps this year and 1,146 in his career. He’s rated 81.0 this year and has 152 carries for 908 yards (6.0 ypc) with 12 TD, plus 32 catches for 302 yards (9.4 ypc) with 2 TD.

RB - Cardwell: Cardwell has 81 snaps this year, his first. He’s rated 71.3 and has 41 carries for 320 yards (7.8 ypc) with 3 TD.

Dye is the main RB, but Verdell was getting snaps before his injury and Cardwell is getting some with him out. Dye is the #9 RB in the Pac-12 in rushing score at 81.6, just between WSU’s Borghi and Cal’s Moore. He’s 6th in overall score, just behind USC’s Ingram and ahead of OSU’s Baylor. He’s #2 in overall yards, with only Baylor ahead of him, as Oregon leans on him quite a bit. Oregon runs the ball a lot, as they’re 10th in the country with 227.4 ypg. The run defense will need to be prepared.

WR - Redd: Redd has played 379 snaps this year and 1,779 in his career. He is rated 58.2 and has 13 catches for 197 yards (15.2 ypc) with 2 TD on 29 targets (44.8%) with 5 drops. He also blocks (187) about as often as he runs routes (189).

WR - Hutson: Hutson has played 351 snaps this year and 494 in his career. He is rated 50.6 and has 13 catches for 180 yards (13.8 ypc) on 20 targets (65.0%) with 1 drop. He blocks (168) very slightly less than he runs routes (183; that’s a 48-52 split)

WR - Williams: Williams has played 315 snaps this year and 501 as a Duck after transferring from USC prior to the 2020 season. He’s rated 75.8 this year and has 23 catches (#3 on team) for 349 yards (#1 on team; 15.2 ypc) with 2 TD. He blocks (150) slightly less than he runs routes (165).

WR - Franklin: Franklin has played 135 snaps this year, his first. He’s rated 68.4 and has 10 catches for 116 yards (11.6 ypc) with 1 TD and 2 drops. He blocks (79) more than he runs routes (55).

Williams is a pretty good receiver, but the rest are pretty average. None of the Oregon receivers are in the top 20 in the conference except Johnson, who isn’t likely to play. Oregon also doesn’t throw the ball nearly as much as we usually see from an Oregon team. They’re currently 85th in passing offense (213.9 ypg) and 65th in passing efficiency (139.53).

TE - Ferguson: Ferguson has played 270 snaps in his first year. He’s rated 61.6 and has 13 catches on 19 targets for 109 yards (8.4 ypc) with 2 TD. He blocks (138) about as often as he runs routes (132).

TE - Matavao: Matavao has played 215 snaps in his first year. He’s rated 54.5 and has 8 catches on 12 targets for 68 yards (8.5 ypc) with 1 TD. He blocks (151) a lot more than he runs routes (64).

TE - Webb: Webb has played 189 snaps this year and 383 in his career. He’s rated 41.7 and has 10 catches on 17 targets for 73 yards (7.3 ypc) with 1 TD and 2 drops. He blocks (94) about as often as he runs routes (95).

Ferguson is okay, the others aren’t great, but all three play a fairly significant amount. Matavao is definitely a blocking TE, but the other two get thrown to a couple of times a game.

LT - Bass: Bass started the year at LG but has moved to LT. He has 670 snaps this year and 1,056 career snaps. He’s rated 88.8 overall and is much better at run blocking (92.1) than pass blocking (71.7), although he’s good at both. He’s had 3 penalties this year.

LG - Moore: Moore started at LT and then moved to LG. He has 481 snaps this year and 913 career snaps. He’s rated 50.5 and is much worse at pass blocking (33.1) than run blocking (58.1), although he’s poorly rated at both. He has 4 penalties this year.

C - Forsyth: Forsyth has only played C this year, but he’s been in and out, playing the first four weeks and the last two, but not in between. As a result, he only has 386 snaps this year, but has 917 career snaps. He’s rated 71.3 and is somewhat better pass blocking (77.7) than run blocking (70.4). He has 4 penalties this year.

RG - Jones: Jones started at RT and then moved to RG. He has 524 snaps this year and 984 career. He’s rated 63.4 and is about equal at pass blocking (65.5) and run blocking (64.2). He has 4 penalties this year.

RT - Aumavae-Laulu: Aumavae-Laulu is one of the few players who hasn’t bounced around. He’s played 500 snaps this year, all at RT. He has 895 career snaps. He’s rated 65.7 and is about equal at pass blocking (67.1) and run blocking (64.3). He has 4 penalties this year.

OL - Jaramillo: Jaramillo has played 274 snaps this year and 277 in his career. He’s played all over the line (115 at LT, 70 at LG, 86 at RG and 3 at RT) and is rated 62.5. He’s about equal at pass blocking (61.8) and run blocking (62.6).

OG - Powers-Johnson: Powers-Johnson got hurt against UCLA but played 95 snaps before that at C and G. He’ll probably step in for Walk, who got hurt against UW. He’s rated 76.3 and is much better pass blocking (87.5) than run blocking (72.4), but is good at both.

This is a pretty good OL. Bass is the top-rated OL in the conference and Forsyth is good too. Only Moore is below average, and it’s entirely possible Powers-Johnson will play in his place, leaving an OL where every starter is rated at least 63 and three of the five are in the 70s or 80s.

As mentioned above, Oregon is running the ball right now but not passing a ton. That may change with Utah’s secondary injuries, but if Oregon plays their normal game that will be a positive for Utah. They are scoring, coming in ranked 21st in the country and 2nd in the conference with 35.3 ppg.

Now a look at the defense. As an initial note, Oregon rotates a ton on defense, as there are 26 players with at least 100 snaps. I’m going to limit it a little more than normal as a result, only putting in players who have at least 200 snaps unless they started last week.

DL - Dorlus: Dorlus has played 482 snaps this year and 822 in his career. He’s rated 75.6 (#3 on defense) and has 34 QB pressures, 17 tackles, 6 TFL, 2.5 sacks, and 2 PBU with 3 missed tackles.

DL - Aumavae: Aumavae has played 385 snaps this year and 725 in his career. He’s rated 79.6 (#2 on defense) and has 18 QB pressures, 26 tackles, and 3 TFL with 5 missed tackles.

DL - Ware-Hudson: Ware-Hudson has played 343 snaps this year and 456 in his career. He’s rated 61.2 and has 7 QB pressures, 14 tackles, 3 TFL, 0.5 sacks, 1 PBU and 3 missed tackles.

DL - K Williams: Williams has played 220 snaps this year and 387 in his career. He’s rated 65.0 and has 9 QB pressures, 7 tackles, and 2 missed tackles.

Dorlus and Aumavae are both excellent DL. They’re rated the #1 and #3 DT in the conference by PFF. The rotation at the third spot is a significant step down from those two, but still okay.

OLB - Thibodeaux: Thibodeaux has played 368 snaps this year and 1,322 in his career. He’s rated 84.5 (#1 on defense) and has 34 QB pressures, 34 tackles, 10 TFL, 8 sacks, and 2 FF with 4 missed tackles.

OLB - Funa: Funa has played 246 snaps this year and 990 in his career. He’s rated 70.8 (#8 on defense) and has 7 QB pressures, 17 tackles, 1 TFL, and 1 missed tackle.

OLB - Swinson: Swinson has played 236 snaps this year and 300 in his career. He’s rated 65.3 and has 10 QB pressures, 22 tackles, 4 TFL, 3 sacks, 2 PBU, 1 FF and 1 missed tackle.

Thibodeaux is the #2 rated OLB/DE in the conference (behind Cal’s Bimage) and is one of the most disruptive players in the country. He and Tafua lead the conference in sacks, with 8, although Tafua applies more pressure (50 so far). Thibodeaux is excellent and is likely to be a first round pick next year, unless he comes back. Funa is solid and Swinson is decent.

MLB - Sewell: Sewell has 670 snaps this year and 1,039 in his career. He’s rated 69.0 and has 28 QB pressures, 79 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 3 sacks, 5 PBU, 1 FF and 12 missed tackles.

MLB - Heaukulani: Heaukulani has 342 snaps this year and 396 in his career (this is his fourth year playing). He is rated 43.3 and has 7 QB pressures, 28 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 INT, and 10 missed tackles.

MLB - Brown: Brown has only played 112 snaps this year, his first, but I’ll include him because he and Heaukulani rotate at that other MLB spot. He’s rated 30.0 and has 2 QB pressures, 15 tackles, and 6 missed tackles.

Sewell is a very good linebacker (#6 in the conference), although his score is hurt somewhat by his high number of missed tackles. The other MLB spot has been an issue this year, as they have more combined missed tackles than Sewell, despite fewer snaps.

CB - Wright: Wright has played 680 snaps this year and 1,464 in his career. He’s rated 73.9 this year (#5 on the defense) and he has 51 tackles, 4 TFL, 1 INT, 4 PBU, 1 FF, and has given up 28 catches on 48 targets (58.3%). He has 9 missed tackles this year.

CB - James: James has played 523 snaps this year and 729 in his career. He’s rated 71.0 this year (#7 on defense) and he has 36 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 3 PBU, and he’s given up 22 catches on 43 targets (51.2%). He has 2 missed tackles this year.

CB - Hill: Hill has 411 snaps this year and 846 in his career. He’s rated 55.3 this year and has 30 tackles, 3 PBU, and 1 FF, and has given up 27 catches on 38 targets (71.1%). He has 4 missed tackles this year.

S - McKinley: McKinley has 704 snaps this year and 1,947 in his career. He’s rated 62.4 and has 58 tackles, 4 INT, 4 PBU, 1 FF, and 15 missed tackles. He’s given up 17 catches on 28 targets (60.7%).

S - Bassa: Bassa has 253 snaps this year, his first. He’s rated 51.8 and has 28 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 1 sack, 1 PBU, and 5 missed tackles. He has given up 13 catches on 14 targets (92.9%).

S - Happle: Happle has 220 snaps this year and 530 as a Duck, after transferring from Boise before the 2020 season. He’s rated 59.4 this year and has 15 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 INT, and 3 missed tackles. He’s given up 8 catches on 12 targets (66.7%).

Wright is a very good corner and James is good too. They’re #6 and #12 in the conference respectively. The safeties are not as good, with McKinley the highest-rated at #15. He’d be much higher rated if he didn’t miss so many tackles.

Oregon’s defense is 58th in the country in total D (369.2 yards). They struggle in pass defense, rating 95th (248.0 ypg), but that’s in part because they’re usually leading late so other teams have to throw on them. This is born out by their run defense, which is 24th (121.2 ypg) and by their pass efficiency defense (#29 in the nation; 120.88). They also generate a lot of turnovers, as they’re tied for 6th in the country in picks (14) and tied for 14th in turnovers gained with 19 total turnovers. I was surprised that a team with such a disruptive player was so low in sacks, coming in at 71st in the nation with 2.1 per game.

I know this Oregon team is ranked no. 3, but they’re not great at anything and have a lot of areas where they’re not performing well. What they can do is run the ball, stop the run, and score. With Utah’s defensive injuries and possible lack of Thomas, I expect to see them try and pass more this week, particularly as that’s an area where Oregon is less efficient. Because of this, I expect a high-scoring game where both teams are in the 30s or 40s. This might be one where the last team with the ball wins the game. I think Utah holds onto the ball, doesn’t create short fields for the Ducks offense, punting issues are a big question, but they should get enough points to beat Oregon in a high-scoring game at home.

Prediction: Utah 42 - Oregon 38