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Three more “sleeps” and then it’s time for the Rose Bowl. This is an incredible opportunity for Utah, and it’s a challenging task ahead, but not insurmountable.
First off, let’s talk about what Ohio State won’t have in this game. The below four players are currently announced as sitting out.
OL Petit-Frere: Played 768 snaps this year (#2 on the offense), mostly at Left Tackle. He’s rated 78.5 (#11 on offense), and mostly averaged in the 80s in both run blocking and pass blocking, although he was abused in pass protection by Penn State and Michigan, lowering his overall pass-blocking score to 60.0. His run-blocking score was 84.3.
WR Olave: Played 687 snaps this year (#6 on offense) and was rated 79.3 (#10 on offense). Olave has 65 catches (#3 on team) for 936 yards (#3 on team) for 14.4 ypc with 13 TD (#1 on team). He played mostly out wide (561 snaps) but also played 111 in the slot and played a few snaps at HB (9) and TE (6).
WR Wilson: Played 595 snaps this year (#10 on offense) and was rated 84.1 (#5 on offense). Wilson has 70 catches (#2 on team) for 1058 yards (#2 on team) for 15.1 ypc with 12 TD (#2 on team). He also had 4 rushing attempts for 76 yards (19.0 ypc) with 1 TD. He played mostly wide (488 snaps) but also had 107 snaps in the slot.
DT Garrett: Played 392 snaps this year (#8 on defense) and was rated 74.2 (#3). Had 22 tackles, 7 TFL (#1), 5.5 TFL (#1), 1 PBU, 17 QB pressures (T#4), and 3 missed tackles.
Those are all big losses. Yes, OSU has a ton of 5* WR on their team, but outside of Smith-Njima (who will now be facing Clark Phillips instead of Malone Mataele), the rest of the WR have about 400 snaps between them. The loss of Petit-Frere isn’t the worst thing in the world, but shuffling the OL is always tough. But the loss of Garrett is absolutely devastating, as OSU has significant trouble stopping runs up the middle, and they’ve just gotten worse at that spot. There’s a reason the line dropped 2 or 2.5 points based on these losses.
Alright, now let’s take a look at what Utah will be facing. First, the offense.
QB Stroud: Has played 734 snaps and is rated 91.9 (#1 on team). He’s the #3 QB in college football by overall offense score (behind Alabama’s Young and Pitt’s Pickett), and is tied for #4 in passing rating (behind Coastal Carolina’s McCall, Alabama’s Young, Pitt’s Picket, and tied with Houston’s Tune). He’s 280/395 (70.9%) for 3862 yards (9.8 ypa) with 38 TD and 5 INT.
Stroud has only been under pressure about 25% of the time and is significantly worse under pressure (71.5), so if Utah can get pressure that will be huge. He doesn’t get sacked a lot (12 sacks). Oregon didn’t get a ton of pressure, but forced a pick with him under pressure. Michigan got a ton of pressure (47% of dropbacks), stopping him from getting into a rhythm, as that was his worst overall score.
RB Henderson: Has played 452 snaps (#11 on team) and is rated 81.9 (#6 on team). For as well-known as OSU is for throwing the ball, Henderson is also effective on the ground, going 167/1172 (7.0 ypc) with 15 TD. He also has 23 receptions for 285 yards and 4 TD.
RB Williams: Has played 200 snaps and is rated 85.9 (#4 on team). He is bad at pass blocking (49.9) and has 69 carries for 490 yards (7.1 ypc) with 3 TD plus 9 catches for 74 yards.
RB Teague: Has played 139 snaps and is rated 79.8 (#9 on team). He is a much better pass blocker (81.2) and has 66 carries for 348 yards (5.3 ypc) with 4 TD plus 2 catches for 12 yards.
Henderson is a very good RB. OSU uses the pass to set up the run, so if Utah can keep them honest in the passing game without blitzing, expect the running game to suffer somewhat. Still, Henderson can break tackles (45 this year) and is an effective rusher. It is notable that the four games where Henderson was held under 5.5 ypc were OSU’s four worst games in total score: Oregon (loss), Michigan (loss), Nebraska (won by 9), Penn St. (won by 9). Every other game OSU won by at least 2 touchdowns. Slowing down Henderson is crucial.
WR Smith-Njigba: Played 581 snaps this year and is rated 90.2 (#2 on team). A big part of that rating is because Wilson and Olave were occupying the top corners on the other team. This will be his first game going up against the #1 corner, but he’s an excellent WR, getting 80 catches (#1), 1,259 yards (#1), 15.7 ypc (#1 among starters), and 6 TD (#3). He spent most of this year in the slot (516 snaps)
WR Harrison, Jr.: Hall-of-Fame WR Marvin Harrison’s son has played 192 snaps this year and is rated 56.6. He has 5 catches for 68 yards (13.6 ypc).
WR Fleming: Has played 129 snaps this year and is rated 61.8. He has 7 catches for 51 yards (7.3 ypc) with 1 TD.
WR Egbuka: Has played 104 snaps this year and is rated 69.9. He has 6 catches for 145 yards (24.2 ypc).
As pointed out above, the loss of Olave and Wilson is significant. The three backups are okay, but haven’t impressed in limited action, yet. Smith-Njigba is excellent, but again, this will be his first time matched up against a #1 corner. If Olave and Wilson were playing, he’d be facing off against Mataele, but instead he should be up against Phillips.
LT D Jones: I expect D Jones to move from RT (where he’s played every snap this year) to LT to replace Petit-Frere. He’s played 722 snaps this year and is rated 86.2 (#1 on OL). He’s rated 77.9 pass blocking and 90.3 run blocking.
LG M Jones: I expect OSU’s top backup, M. Jones, to step in at LG so their normal LG (Munford) can move to RT. He has 390 snaps this year, mostly at LG but also at LG and C. He’s rated 81.7 (#2 on OL), 71.6 pass blocking, and 87.0 run blocking.
C Wypler: Played 791 snaps this year, all at C, and is rated 78.4 (#5 on OL). He’s rated 72.5 pass blocking and 83.7 run blocking.
RG Johnson: Has played 699 snaps this year, all at RG, and is rated 79.9 (#3 on OL). He’s rated 64.1 pass blocking and 85.1 run blocking.
RT Munford: Has played 634 snaps this year, mostly at LG but with 80 snaps at tackle. He’s rated 72.3 overall (#6 on OL), 62.1 pass blocking, and 75.7 run blocking.
The loss of Petit-Frere will move everyone around, as he’s played almost every snap this year. I expect the line to look as outlined above, but they may need to shift it more than that.
Overall, OSU’s offense is impressive. They are rated very well on PFF. Their overall offense is rated #1 in PFF (93.6), their passing offense is #5 (90.6), and their rushing is #10 (91.9). The only PFF offense rating where they’re not in the top 10 is pass blocking, where they’re 40th (70.5). They’re #3 in third-down conversion, (52.7% conversion), #4 in passing yards (364.9 ypg), #41 in rushing yards (186.5 ypg), and are #5 in red zone offense (getting points 92.6%). I will note, their red zone TD percentage is lower than many, getting 33 TD in 54 trips (61.1%), which is below Utah (48/68 for 70.6%).
Now, let’s take a look at the defense. Only defenders with at least 150 snaps are included unless there is an unusual reason to list them.
DE Harrison: Played 508 snaps and is rated 84.3 (#1 on defense and only defensive player over 80). 25 tackles (T#9 on defense), 6 TFL (#3), 2 sacks, 3 PBU, 1 FF, and 26 QB pressures (#2). He is rated 78.5 against the run and 85.8 as a pass rusher.
DE Smith: Played 377 snaps and is rated 72.9 (#4 on defense). 25 tackles (T#9), 5 TFL (#5), 3 sacks (T#4), 2 PBU, 1 FF, and 32 QB pressures (#1). He’s rated 69.4 against the run and 78.8 as a pass rusher.
DE Jean-Baptiste: Played 313 snaps and is rated 60.7. Has 12 tackles, 2 TFL, 1.5 sacks, 1 PBU, and 17 QB pressures (T#4). He’s rated 61.6 against the run and 60.4 as a pass rusher.
DE Tuimoloau: Played 264 snaps and is rated 60.4. Has 14 tackles, 3.5 TFL (T#10), 3.5 sacks (#3), 1 PBU, and 11 QB pressures (T#8). He is rated 57.2 against the run and 60.1 as a pass rusher.
DE Sawyer: Played 169 snaps and is rated 70.3. Has 10 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 3.0 sacks (T#4), 1 FF, and 11 QB pressures (T#8). He’s rated 58.8 against the run and 79.1 as a pass rusher.
These are two good defensive ends and three average ends, by PFF standards. Harrison is excellent and Smith is solid. Jean-Baptiste is okay, but can put some pressure, although he doesn’t finish and isn’t great against the run. Tuimoloau also struggles against the run, but does well getting tackles if he gets pressure. Sawyer is rated poorly against the run, but gets decent pressure and finishes pretty well.
DT Vincent: Played 317 snaps and is rated 59.4. He has 17 tackles, 3.5 TFL (T#10), 0.5 sacks, 8 QB pressures. He’s rated 56.8 against the run and 63.3 as a pass rusher.
DT Jackson: Played 310 snaps and is rated 65.5. He has 23 tackles, 4.5 TFL (T#7), 2.5 sacks (#6), and 10 QB pressures (#10). He’s rated 63.7 against the run and 63.8 as a pass rusher.
DT Hamilton: Played 236 snaps and is rated 67.1. He has 12 tackles, 2 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 PBU, and 15 QB pressures (#6). He’s rated 59.2 against the run and 69.3 as a pass rusher.
DT Cage: Played 182 snaps and is rated 67.2. He has 12 tackles, 4 TFL (#9), 1 sack, and 4 QB pressures. He’s rated 63.2 against the run and 65.5 as a pass rusher.
DT Williams: Played 166 snaps, but is rated 79.7 (#2 on defense). He has 15 tackles, 5 sacks (#2), 6.5 TFL (#2), 2 PBU, 1 FF, and 20 QB pressures (#3). He’s rated 63.1 against the run and 85.1 as a pass rusher.
There is a theme for the DTs, that they’re better against the pass than the run. Combining this fact with the loss of their #1 DT (and the only one rated above 70 against the run), and there should be some room in the middle of the line for Thomas and the rest of the Utah RB.
LB Simon: Played 435 snaps and is rated 55.5. He has 54 tackles (#2), 2.5 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INT, 1 PBU, 12 QB pressures, and has given up 14 catches on 20 targets (70% completions) for 141 yards (10.1 ypc). He’s rated 64.1 against the run, 65.9 in pass rush, and 42.9 in coverage.
LB Eichenberg: Played 376 snaps and is rated 66.5. He has 47 tackles (#4), 5.5 TFL (#4), 1 INT, 2 PBU, 9 QB pressures, and has given up 13 catches on 18 targets (72.2%) for 205 yards (15.8 ypc). He’s rated 72.9 against the run, 70.3 in pass rush, and 56.9 in coverage.
LB Chambers: Played 362 snaps and is rated 64.1. He has 42 tackles (#6), 5.0 TFL (T#5), 1 INT, 2 PBU, 1 FF, 5 QB pressures, and has given up 25 receptions on 29 targets (86.2%). He’s rated 51.1 against the run, 68.8 in pass rush, and 75.6 in coverage. While he gives up a lot of catches, he doesn’t give up many yards per catch (158 yards for an average of 6.3 ypc)
LB Mitchell: Played 341 snaps and is rated 47.3. He has 44 tackles (#5), 4.5 TFL (T#7), 4 QB pressures, and has given up 22 catches on 28 targets (78.6%) for 201 yards (9.1 ypc). He’s rated 64.3 against the run, 52.2 as a pass rusher, and 32.4 in coverage.
The linebackers are the lowest-rated unit of the OSU defense. They’re okay against the run, but average (or worse) against the pass. That’s a recipe for disaster facing Kuithe, Kincaid, and Fotheringham. Look for OSU to try other guys at this position during the game, after having four weeks to prepare.
CB Burke: Has played 663 snaps and is rated 66.5. He has 32 tackles (#8), 11 PBU, 1 INT, and has given up 30 catches on 62 targets (48.4%) for 321 yards (10.7 ypc). He’s rated 64.6 in coverage and 74.3 tackling.
DB Ransom: Has played 426 snaps, mostly at nickel (287), but also up in the box (67), and at FS (81), with a couple snaps out wide (10). He’s rated 64.2 overall and has 38 tackles (#7), 2.5 TFL, 1 sack, 5 PBU, and has given up 23 catches on 33 targets (69.7%) for 312 yards (13.6 ypc). He’s rated 65.2 in coverage and 48.0 in tackling.
CB Brown: Has played 399 snaps and is rated 68.3. He’s had 22 sacks, 7 PBU, 1 INT, and has given up 11 catches on 31 targets (35.4%) for 165 yards (15.0 ypc). He’s rated 69.3 in coverage and 52.6 tackling.
DB Williamson: Has played 315 snaps, mostly at nickel (241) but also in the box (65). He’s rated 72.1 overall and has 24 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 2 PBU, 1 FF, and has given up 21 catches on 31 targets (67.7%) for 199 yards (9.5 ypc). He’s rated 66.3 in coverage and 64.4 in tackling.
CB Banks: Has played 313 snaps, mostly out wide (265). He’s rated 61.1 and has 8 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PBU, and has given up 11 catches on 15 targets (73.3%) for 100 yards (9.1 ypc). He is rated 59.8 in coverage and 37.2 in tackling.
CB Martinez: Has played 173 snaps, mostly at slot (118 snaps) with 24 at safety and 28 in the box. He’s rated 70.6 and has 16 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1 PBU, 1 INT, and has given up 12 tackles on 19 targets (63.2%) for 162 yards (13.5 ypc). He’s rated 74.8 in coverage and 45.1 tackling.
The corners are mostly solid, although they have one clear weakness, tackling. That’s good news for Thomas, who loves to run through tackles.
SS Hickman: Has played 669 snaps and is rated 71.3. He has 96 tackles (#1), 1 TFL, 1 sack, 2 INT, 1 FF, has given up 27 catches on 37 targets (73.0%) for 360 yards (13.3 ypc). He’s rated 72.3 in coverage and 74.9 in tackling. He plays a lot in the box (310 snaps) and a significant amount at slot (98 snaps), with 241 at safety.
FS Shaw: Has played 605 snaps and is rated 71.3. He has 50 tackles (#3), 0.5 TFL, 3 PBU, 1 INT, and has given up 5 catches on 11 targets (45.5%) for 109 yards (21.8 ypc). He’s rated 72.5 in coverage and 84.5 tackling. He also plays a lot of slot (113) and in the box (96), but is mostly a safety (393).
The safeties are both good, although their very high number of tackles is another indictment of the tackling of the corners and linebackers, though with as much as Hickman plays in the box as a hybrid, a lot of tackles is to be expected.
OSU’s defense is not on the same level as their offense. They are rated 37th by PFF (80.4), 47th in run defense (75.2), 21st in pass rush (84.6), and 53rd in tackling (69.4). They are 95th in 3rd down defense (41.4%), 98th in pass defense (246.9 ypg), 39th in pass efficiency defense (125.7), 19th in run defense (118.5 ypg), 23rd in scoring defense (20.9 ppg). They also are +10 in turnover margin. They are 71st in red zone defense (allowing scores on 83.8% of red zone possessions). They have given up 27 red zone touchdowns, out of 37 total possessions, for 73.0%. This is significantly below Utah, who has given up 22 TD on 42 total possessions, for 52.4%. Combining that with the red zone offense, if both teams reach the red zone the same number of times, Utah should win the game. OSU also has 10.8 missed tackles per game, which would put them 6th in the Pac-12.
After looking at this, I think the holdouts are probably the worst possible holdouts OSU could have, unless one of their safeties held out too. OSU also relies a lot on forcing turnovers. They are +10 overall, but were -1 against Oregon, +1 against Michigan, and -1 against Nebraska (three of their four closest games).
If Utah can avoid turning the ball over and get one turnover of our own, I think this is set up for a Utah win. A few days ago I was planning on picking OSU by 4, but with the announced holdouts I’m going to switch that. Utah runs the ball a ton, gets TDs in all four trips into the red zone, and does a good job protecting the football. OSU passes like crazy but gets stopped on an early red zone trip, settling for a field goal, which makes the difference.
Utah by four, 28-24.
