After the wheels falling off due to injuries, illness, and playing a hot team last week, Utah (7-4) looks to finish the regular season strong against Colorado (4-7) this week. Colorado has lost seven of their last eight after starting the year 3-0. This includes an embarrassing loss last week to Washington State, 56-14. As it’s now at the final game of the regular season, there is no reason to talk about who left last year, which is a benefit, as Colorado lost more than 60% of last year’s roster in the transfer portal.
Let’s take a look at Colorado’s offense.
QB - Shadeur Sanders. 89.1 (#1) on 770 snaps, the Jacksonville St. transfer is an electric player, going 298/435 (68.5%) for 3,229 yards (7.4 ypa) with 27 TD and 3 INT through the air, and rushing 111 times for -77 yards. That stat is deceiving, however, because Sanders has been sacked 53 times, a record this year. If you remove the sack yardage, Sanders has run 58 times for 400 yards (6.9 ypc) and 4 TD.
QB - Ryan Staub: 52.0 on 37 snaps, Staub has only played 2 games, playing 5 snaps against Nebraska and 32 snaps last week. Sanders is considered “day to day”, so Utah may see Staub this week, which changes the game dramatically. Staub is 6/16 (37.5%) for 56 yards (3.7 ypa) with 0 TD and 0 INT.
Sanders is an excellent QB, and I won’t be surprised if he leaves Colorado this year and declares for the draft. He may choose to sit out this game both due to recovering from his injury and because Colorado has nothing left to play for, particularly if he’s leaving for the NFL. With him, Colorado’s passing game is working well, ranked 38th in passing efficiency and 12 in passing yards (301 ypg).
RB - Dylan Edwards: 63.6 on 381 snaps, Edwards has 75 carries for 320 yards (4.3 ypc) and 1 TD.
RB - Anthony Hankerson: 68.5 on 273 snaps, Hankerson has 73 carries for 303 yards (4.2 ypc) and 1 TD.
Those two split the majority of the carries, although Sy’Veon Wilkerson gets a lot of the goal-line carries, with 3 TD to his name. As a general rule, Colorado does not run the ball. They’re 129th in rushing offense (71.8 ypg) and have only 341 carries on the year, 54 of which are sacks. Again, if you remove the sacks, Colorado has 287 carries. For comparison, Utah has 458 carries on the year this year.
WR - Xavier Weaver: 69.2 on 783 snaps, the USF transfer has 68 catches on 100 targets (68%) for 908 yards (13.4 ypc) with 4 TD and 4 drops.
WR - Jimmy Horn, Jr.: 56.6 on 726 snaps, the other USF transfer has 56 catches on 78 targets (71.8%) for 548 yards (9.8 ypc) with 6 TD and 8 drops.
TE Michael Harrison: 57.4 on 461 snaps, Harrison has 29 catches on 38 targets (76.3%) for 246 yards (8.5 ypc) with 5 TD and 1 drop.
WR - Travis Hunter: 75.9 (#2) on 413 snaps, the Jacksonville St. transfer has 49 catches on 64 targets (76.6%) for 614 yards (12.5 ypc) with 4 TD.
WR - Javon Antonio: 57.5 on 380 snaps, the Northwestern St. transfer has 17 catches on 23 targets (73.9%) for 209 yards (12.3 ypc) with 2 TD.
WR - Omarion Miller: 69.1 on 192 snaps, Miller has 11 catches on 18 targets (61.1%) for 234 yards (21.3 ypc) with 1 TD.
There are several other WR with multiple catches, but the six listed above have the vast majority of the targets, catches, yards, and touchdowns. Colorado’s passing attack is diverse and explosive, with 23 catches beyond 20 yards and another 43 between 10 and 20. Utah’s secondary is going to need to be on its game this week.
LT - Gerad Christian-Lichtenhan: 60.7 on 784 snaps, Christian-Lichtenhan is rated better at pass blocking (64.7) than run blocking (56.3), with 5 penalties.
LG - Jack Bailey: 60.1 on 710 snaps, the Kent St. transfer is rated much better at pass blocking (71.4) than run blocking (58.0) with 9 penalties.
C - Van Wells: 65.8 on 734 snaps, Wells is rated much better at pass blocking (78.6) than run blocking (63.1) with 6 penalties.
RG - Landon Bebee: 63.2 on 558 snaps, the Missouri St. transfer is rated much better at pass blocking (78.3) than run blocking (55.3) with 1 penalty.
RT - Savion Washington: 66.8 on 617 snaps, the other Kent St. transfer is rated better at pass blocking (70.2) than run blocking (66.7) with 6 penalties.
RG - Kareem Harden: 62.8 on 326 snaps, Harden and Bebee have been switching off the RG spot, although Harden has played slightly more the past few weeks. He is rated better at run blocking (72.3) than pass blocking (66.1) with 5 penalties.
Colorado’s offensive line is not rated too badly as individual players, but as a unit they are struggling. They are last in the NCAA in sacks allowed (54), 129th out of 130 teams in rushing yardage (71.8), and even with limited rushing attempts, the running game is averaging only 2.32 yards per carry, last in the NCAA.
Overall, Colorado’s offense passes very well and cannot run the ball at all. Colorado has gone well over 300 yards passing in several games, but exceeded 150 yards rushing only once, gaining 193 yards against USC on 45 carries (4.3 ypc), and only exceeded 100 one other time, with 132 yards on 35 carries (3.8 ypc) against Stanford.
Now let’s take a look at Colorado’s defense.
DT - Shane Cokes: 64.3 on 489 snaps, the Dartmouth transfer has 8 QB pressures, 20 tackles, 1 PBU, and 1 missed tackle.
DT - Amari McNeill: 66.4 on 406 snaps, the Tennessee transfer has 10 QB pressures,29 tackles, 7 TFL, 3 sacks, 1 PBU, and 5 missed tackles.
DT - Leonard Payne, Jr.: 64.8 on 396 snaps, the Fresno St. transfer has 19 QB pressures, 9 tackles, 2 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 PBU and 3 missed tackles.
DE - Derrick McLendon, II: 54.6 on 395 snaps, the FSU transfer has 11 QB pressures, 13 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and 3 missed tackles.
DE - Taijh Alston: 64.8 on 287 snaps, the West Virginia transfer has 18 QB pressures, 19 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks, and 4 missed tackles.
Colorado’s defensive line isn’t great, but they are solid at getting pressure, as the team averages 2.36 sacks per game, good for #45 nationally.
LB - LaVonta Bentley: 54.9 on 606 snaps, the Clemson transfer has 17 QB pressures, 60 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 4 sacks, 2 PBU, 6 missed tackles, and has given up 21 catches on 30 targets (70%).
LB - Jordan Domineck: 65.8 on 563 snaps, the Arkansas transfer has 24 QB pressures, 45 tackles, 11.5 TFL, 5 sacks, 2 PBU, 8 missed tackles, and has given up 5 catches on 7 targets.
LB - Marvin Ham, II: 60.2 on 368 snaps, Ham has 1 QB pressure, 36 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 1 sack, 1 PBU, 6 missed tackles, and has given up 10 catches on 11 targets (90.9%).
Colorado’s linebackers have a lot of tackles, but they also miss a lot of tackles and have given up an average of 168.1 ypg (99th nationally) and 4.65 ypc. Utah should be able to run the ball this week.
S - Shilo Sanders: 74.9 (#1) on 716 snaps, the Jacksonville St. transfer has 59 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 3 PBU, 1 INT, 9 missed tackles, and has given up 21 catches on 27 targets (77.8%).
S - Trevor Woods: 58.1 on 641 snaps, Woods has 56 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 0.5 sacks, 3 PBU, 2 INT, 11 missed tackles and has given up 20 catches on 29 targets (69.0%). Woods didn’t play last week, his status this week is unknown.
S - Cam’Ron Silmon-Craig: 66.0 on 610 snaps, the Jacksonville St. transfer has 39 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack, 2 PBU, 3 INT, 14 missed tackles and has given up 37 catches on 49 targets (75.5%).
CB - Omarion Cooper: 64.0 on 575 snaps, the FSU transfer has 37 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack, 5 PBU, 9 missed tackles and has given up 30 catches on 46 targets (65.2%). Cooper has not played the last two weeks, his status this week is unknown.
CB - Travis Hunter: 74.6 (#2) on 528 snaps, the Jacksonville St. transfer has 27 tackles, 1 TFL, 5 PBU, 3 INT, 3 missed tackles and has given up 28 catches on 51 targets (54.9%).
S - Roderick Ward: 60.4 on 474 snaps, Ward has 48 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 PBU, 12 missed tackles, and has given up 7 catches on 14 targets (50%).
CB - Cormani McClain: 51.9 on 228 snaps, McClain has started in Cooper’s place the last two weeks. He has 8 missed tackles and has given up 17 catches on 24 targets (70.8%).
Colorado’s secondary has some playmakers, including Shilo and Hunter, but as a unit they have not been impressive, giving up 296.5 ypg (128th nationally) and ranking 118th in pass efficiency defense. They have forced some turnovers, with 10 interceptions this year.
Overall, Colorado’s defense is not playing well. They are sub-99 in every category except sacks, where they’re 46th, and they have 124 missed tackles, which is bad, but amazingly only 8th worst in the Pac-12 (ahead of USC, WSU, UW, and Oregon State). Utah’s offense should be comfortable this week, with a chance to avenge themselves after last week’s struggles.
I expect Utah to give up some passing yards and a few scores this week, but generally Utah should be able to control the game. The final score depends significantly on whether Shadeur plays. If Shadeur does not play, Utah should be able to set the score. Without Shadeur, I expect a final score of 42-6. If Shadeur plays, he is going to make some plays with his arm and his legs, and I expect the final to be closer, but Utah still wins fairly comfortably.
Prediction: Utah 35 Colorado 21
