Inside the Numbers: BYU

The Holy War. The In-State Game. It's here. After last week’s win over Weber State, the Utes travel down south to Provo. Today, we look a bit closer at BYU. The teams BYU beat last season went a combined 45-55, with very few of them played a full schedule, unlike BYU. Still, it was a great season for the Cougars and as a result they lost a lot of contributors for this year’s squad. In this article, we’ll talk a little bit about those losses, who is coming back, and take a deep analysis of who returns for BYU with Pro Football Focus (PFF) numbers to help.

Who they lost on offense

QB - Wilson: This is the big one. He was rated 95.4 by PFF last year (#2 on the offense), played 711 snaps, and went 247/336 (73.5%) for 3,692 yards (11 ypa) with 33 TD and 3 INT. Those are incredible numbers, even against their less than stellar schedule. Wilson accounted for 91.1% of last year’s QB completions, 93.4% of last year’s QB passing yards, and 97.1% of last year’s passing TDs. Wilson was drafted #2 overall to the New York Jets.

OT - Christensen: He was rated 95.9 last year (#1 on the offense) and played 741 snaps at LT. He was drafted in the third round by the Carolina Panthers.

OG - Herring: He was rated 82.2 last year (#5 on the offense) and played 707 snaps at RG/LG/RT. He was a UFA who spent some time with the Tennessee Titans, but didn’t make the active roster.

OG - Hoge: Rated 82.0 last year (#7 on the offense) and played 413 snaps at RG. He was a UFA who spent some time with the Jets. He didn’t make the active roster.

OG - Longson: Longson only played 135 snaps last year, mostly at RG, but was rated average at 69.6. He chose to not return for an extra senior season.

WR - Milne: Rated 90.0 last year (#4 on the offense) and played 546 snaps. He had 70 receptions (25.5% of last year’s total), 1,188 yards (30.1% of last year’s total), for 17 ypc with 8 TD (23.5%). He was drafted in the 7th round by the Washington Football Team.

Who they lost on defense

DE - Dawe: Rated 78.2 (#2 on the team and #1 of the starters) and played 575 snaps. He had 43 tackles (#6 on team, 5.9% of the total), 7 TFL (#1 on team) with 2 sacks. Picked up by the Atlanta Falcons as a UFA, but didn’t make the active roster.

DE - Fevaleaki: Rated 81.1 (#1 on the team) on 100 snaps. He was a backup, but played very well in limited action. Had 6 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 sack and 1 PBU. Fevaleaki entered the transfer portal this past summer, landing at Snow College.

DE/DT - El-Bakri: Rated 63.5 and played 453 snaps. He had 49 tackles (#4 on the team, 6.7%), 3.5 TFL, and 1.5 sacks. He chose to declare for the NFL draft instead of returning for another senior season, but he was not picked up by a team.

DT - Tonga: Rated 71.7 (#9 on the team) and played 465 snaps. He had 36 tackles (#8 on the team, 5.0%), 3.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 5 PBU and 1 FF. He was drafted in the 7th round by the Chicago Bears and is currently on the roster.

OLB - I. Kaufusi: Rated 63.9, he played 570 snaps. He had 83 tackles (#1 on the team and 11.4%), 3.5 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 INT, 1 PBU, 3 FF and 2 FR. He was picked up as a UFA by the Indianapolis Colts, but didn’t make the roster.

CB - Wilcox: Rated 68.3, he played 385 snaps. He had 18 tackles (#15 on team, 2.5%) and 1 PBU. He was drafted in the 7th round by the Buccaneers, but eventually was picked up by the Colts and made their roster.

CB/S - Fonua: Rated 52.3, he played 304 snaps. He had 28 tackles (#9 on team, 3.9%), 2 TFL and 3 PBU plus 1 FF. He graduated and left, but didn’t get any NFL contracts.

S - Warner: Rated 77.5 (#4 on team) and played 661 snaps (#1 on team). He had 28 tackles (#9 on team, 3.9% of the total), 1.5 TFL, 2 INT and 2 PBU. Picked up as a UFA with the Los Angeles Rams, he didn’t make the active roster.

S - Anderson: Rated 64.0 by PFF, he played 485 snaps at FS. He had 41 tackles (#7 on team, 5.6% of the total) and 2 PBU. Not a great rating from PFF, but he still got a free agent shot with the Kansas City Chiefs, but he didn’t make the roster.

Here are the losses due to injury for this game

WR - Romney: Romney was injured against Arizona in BYU’s first game this season. There’s no way Romney plays this week, but he’s not lost for the season. He was rated 79.3 last year (#9 on the team) and had 39 receptions (14.3%) for 603 yards (15.3%) and 2 TD (5.9%). He had what appears to be a severe MCL sprain or mid-grade tear.

CB - Ellis: Ellis was injured against Arizona in a very scary situation, but it appears he’s okay with no pain and a negative CT. I still don’t expect him this week, but it’s possible he’ll be cleared. He was rated 67.5 last year with 287 snaps. He had 13 tackles (#18, 1.8%) and 3 PBU.

CB - Udo: Udo was hurt last year and then suffered a setback during fall camp. He won’t be playing this week. He was rated 76.0 by PFF (#5 on the team) on 227 snaps. Despite a lower number of snaps, he had 25 tackles (#12 on team, 3.4%), 5.5 TFL, 3 sacks and 1 PBU.

CB - Harper: Harper was hurt in the spring and is out probably most of the season with a knee injury. He was rated 65.9 last year on 377 snaps. He had 25 tackles (#12 on team, 3.4%), 1.5 TFL and 1 PBU.

That is a TON of losses. There almost certainly won’t be another team the Utes face this year that lost as much as BYU. They lost the following production from the 2020 team:

91.1% QB completions

93.4% QB passing yards

97.1% passing TDs.

39.8% receptions

45.4% receiving yards

21.6% rushing attempts

20.8% rushing yards

54.3% tackles

48.5% TFL

60.9% sacks

37.5% INT

51.3% PBU

Now, who's returning for the offense from last year, plus some new faces we’ll see this year based on last week’s game against the Arizona Wildcats.

Who's returning for the offense

QB - Hall: Hall has played a total of 208 snaps, including the 64 snaps last week. He was rated 71.2 last week and his career numbers are 49/74 (66.2%) for 618 yards (8.4 ypa) for 3 TD and 0 INT. Those numbers are against Arizona this year and against USF and USU in 2019. He’s also an effective runner, with 31 designed rushes for 217 yards (5.9 ypc) with 3 TD and 2 fumbles. Based on last week, BYU probably won’t have him run very much, but it’s something that Utah will have to watch.

RB - Allgeier: Allgeier played 39 snaps last week and was rated 67.1, going 17/94 (5.5 ypc) with 1 TD. Overall, he has 499 snaps and his career numbers are 193/1,392 (7.2 ypc) with 14 TD. Most of those snaps were against last year’s schedule, so it’s hard to say how good he is. Still, he’s an effective runner and is pretty fast in space.

RB - Katoa: Katoa played 25 snaps last week and was rated 71.6, going 9/33 (3.7 ypc) Overall, he has 1,050 snaps and his career numbers are 254/1,258 (5.0 ypc) for 17 TD. He tends to be BYU’s short-yardage back, but last year these two split snaps pretty evenly (324 for Katoa, 382 for Allgeier) but Allgeir got nearly double the carries (Katoa had 84, Allgeier had 150).

The RBs are a solid group. Allgeier is a good back with good speed, and Katoa is experienced and tough to bring down. They’re better than a lot of BYU backs we’ve seen over the years, but we aren’t seeing the second coming of Jamaal Williams.

WR - Pau’u: Pau’u played 57 snaps last week and was rated 84.4 (#1 on the team). He had 8 receptions for 126 yards (15.8 ypc) and 2 TD. He has 1,057 snaps overall and his career numbers are 85/1,084 (12.8 ypc) and 9 TD. Expect him to be the go-to receiver unless he’s seriously hurt (he’s been seen in a boot this week). Hall doesn’t have experience with the Nacuas, but he’s played with Pau’u for four years and seemed to trust him last week.

WR - S. Nacua: Samson hasn’t played for BYU yet, as both he and Puka were held out last week with lower leg injuries. Samson played 987 snaps in 4 years for Utah (averaging about 290 snaps a year in regular years). His best year was 2018, when he was rated 71.6. In 4 years he had 82 catches for 1,015 yards (12.4 ypc) with 11 TD.

WR - P. Nacua: Puka hasn’t played for BYU yet either, but played a little bit for UW (203 snaps). So far his college career has been less impressive than his potential, although he was rated 73.1 in his best year (2019). In 2 years he’s caught 16 passes for 319 yards (19.9 ypc) with 3 TD. Still, he was a highly sought-after recruit for a reason. If Hall can get him the ball, he’s dangerous.

WR - Jackson: Jackson is Romney’s backup, but I expect to see the Nacuas more than Jackson. He played 34 snaps and was rated 64.5 last week, with 2 catches for 20 yards (10 ypc). In his career he has 167 snaps, 8 catches for 42 yards (5.3 ypc).

WR - Hill: Hill played 47 snaps last week and was rated 62.7. He had 3 catches for 22 yards (7.3 ypc). For his career he has 207 snaps, 10 catches for 132 yards (13.2 ypc) with 1 TD last year. I don’t expect to see nearly as much of him this week with the Nacuas back.

Pau’u is a good WR, but I fully expect Utah to be able to cover him. The question is whether the Utes can cover Puka on the other side as well. Romney is also a good WR, and Jackson is serviceable. If Romney is on the field, they have three or four capable receivers including one potential superstar in Puka.

TE - Rex: Rex played 60 snaps last week and had 2 catches for 9 yards and was rated 53.5. That’s a very poor rating for PFF, and significantly behind where he was rated last year (70.3). For his career, he has 714 snaps, 40 catches for 461 yards (11.5 ypc) with 12 TD. BYU fans love Rex, and he’s a decent TE, but Utah’s defense has experience defending one of the best tight end units in the country, so they should be able to keep up with BYU’s group.

TE - Wake: Wake played 34 snaps last week and had 1 catch for 10 yards. He was rated 58.1, another subpar rating and significantly behind last year’s number (73.3). For his career, he’s played 414 snaps and has 9 receptions for 124 yards (13.8 ypc) with 1 TD.

BYU fans love their TEs, but they’re not as scary as their wide receiver group. Expect Utah’s linebackers and safeties to be able to keep them largely contained, just like Arizona did last week.

LT - Freeland: Freeland played the entire game (64 snaps) and was rated 67.7, which is average. Freeland is decently experienced (1,019 snaps), but the last two years he’s played RT, not LT.

LG - Barrington: Played the entire game (64 snaps) and was rated 61.5, which is below average. He’s also decently experienced (981 snaps) and started all of last year, as well as some of 2019.

C - Empey: Empey also played the entire game last week (64 snaps) and was their highest-rated OL at 69.2. He’s their most-experienced OL with 2,289 snaps, and has been starting four straight years (although he missed some games last year with injury). He’s their best lineman and still leaves some Ute fans wondering about “what could have been” if he stuck with his commitment to Utah.

RG - Pay: Pay started at RG and played the first 27 snaps last week. He was rated 64.3, which is not great. I think he was pulled for performance, not injury, and he’s still #1 on the depth chart. He had 112 snaps last year for a total of 139 (their least-experienced OL).

RT - LaChance: LaChance played the entire game (64 snaps) at RT and was rated 54.4 (their second-worst OL). He’s played a little bit, but still only has 359 snaps to his name. Expect Utah’s Carlton and Fillinger to make life difficult for LaChance on the edge.

RG - Tukuafu: Tukuafu stepped in when Pay came out and played 37 snaps. He was rated 53.1, their worst-rated OL. He has 378 snaps in his career, mostly at C when Empey was out with injury. He’s also not performing well, which is why Pay is getting more time, as he’s a freshman and Tukuafu is a junior.

Overall, the offensive line is okay. The left side is decent, Empey is good and will probably get a shot at the NFL, but the right side is bad. Expect BYU’s TE to end up on the right side a lot to help the right side of the OL. Watching some highlights from the Arizona game, I’d estimate the TE lined up on that side about 70% of the time.

The offense appears to be… okay. They have one good WR (Pau’u), one possibly elite WR if he plays to his potential (Puka), and one reliable WR (Samson). Their TE and RB are not as good as they think, but they’re not bad. Their OL is good on the left and very bad on the right.

The question really is their quarterback play. We don’t have enough information to tell us whether or not Hall is any good. He had a couple of very good throws against Arizona and a few really bad throws. Expect him to be facing a lot more pressure this week and expect Utah’s young DEs to be involved in a lot of that pressure.

Who returns on defense

One note, BYU’s depth chart lists 5 starting DL, 4 starting LB, and 6 starting corners. I’m going to assume they’re playing a 4-3 and go based on snaps (not who actually started).

DE - Batty: Batty played 66 snaps against Arizona and was rated 53.8, which was second-lowest of BYU’s starters. He had 4 tackles and 1 sack, plus 2 QB hurries. He also played 96 snaps last year, for a total of 162 snaps. His career numbers are 17 tackles, 4.5 TFL, and 4.5 sacks.

DE - Leiataua: Leiataua played 47 snaps against Arizona and was rated 72.0 (I would call this #2 among the starters, although Leiataua technically didn’t start, they started Batty at DE and 3 DTs). He had 3 tackles and 1 sack last week plus 3 QB hurries. Leiataua is their second-most experienced defensive lineman, playing 632 snaps. He has 46 career tackles, 6 TFL, 3.5 sacks and 1 PBU.

DE - Fauatea: Fauatea is listed as the starter at SE. He played 28 snaps against Arizona and was rated 50.6 with 1 tackle. He’s their most-experienced defensive lineman with 726 snaps. For his career he has 39 tackles, 6 TFL, 4.5 sacks, and 2 PBU.

DE/LB - Tanavusa: Tanavusa played 22 snaps against Arizona and was rated 67.5, which is an average rating. He had 1 tackle. For his career, he’s played 448 snaps and has 57 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INT, and 3 PBU.

DT - Tuioti-Mariner: Tuioti-Mariner played 49 snaps and was rated 63.2, which is just below average. He had no official stats, but did have 3 QB hurries. He has 555 career snaps and 23 career tackles.

DT - Summers: Summers played 49 snaps and was rated 66.1. He had 4 tackles, 2 QB hurries and one QB hit. He’s played a little bit, with 428 career snaps, 27 career tackles, 4 TFL, and 2 sacks.

DT - Mahe: Mahe played 27 snaps against Arizona and was rated 58.7. He had 2 tackles and 1 QB hurry. He has 282 career snaps and 24 tackles, 3 TFL, and 2 sacks.

BYU’s defensive line was rated average or bad against Arizona at every spot outside of Leiataua. BYU brought a lot of pressure, but that appears to be a necessity, not a product of being aggressive. They’re also fairly inexperienced outside of Leiataua and Fauatea.

LB - Wilgar: Wilgar played 69 snaps and was rated 70.9, which is pretty good. He had 9 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack, and 3 QB hurries and was the top-rated LB against Arizona. In his career, Wilgar has 1,283 snaps, 120 tackles, 11.5 TFL, 1 sack, 3 INT, and 5 PBU. Expect him to get a lot of work covering TE/RB, as he’s BYU’s best coverage LB by far.

LB - Pili: Pili played 72 snaps and was rated 65.4, which is okay. He had 17 tackles (#1 in the nation), 1 sack, and 1 QB hurry. He’s played 782 snaps in his career, 115 tackles, 7 TFL, 2 sacks, and 3 PBU.

LB - Tooley: Tooley was held out against Arizona but is expected to play against Utah. He has played 750 career snaps and was rated 65.9 last year. His career numbers are 94 tackles, 5 TFL, 2 INT and 2 PBU.

LB - Bywater:. Bywater played 55 snaps in place of Tooley and was rated 43.9, the worst starter by far. He had 10 tackles but was very bad in coverage, giving up nearly 100 yards and a touchdown. He’s played 133 snaps in his career and has 25 tackles.

The starting linebackers are decent, but the depth looks rough if Bywater is their best backup option. As with the Nacuas, I expect Tooley to play, but I don’t know if he’s 100%. If Bywater is playing a significant number of snaps, expect Ludwig to get him matched up on a RB or TE and abuse him in the passing game.

CB - Mandell: Mandell played 71 snaps and was rated 70.0, which is decent and is tied for the best rating among their corners. He had 5 tackles last week against Arizona. He has 985 career snaps but has never rated above 60.5 by PFF for an entire season. His career numbers are 41 tackles, 2.5 TFL, and 1 PBU.

CB - Herron: Herron played 49 snaps and was rated 70.0, tied for first among corners with Mendell. He had 2 tackles and 1 PBU. He has 674 career snaps, 37 tackles, 2 TFL and 7 PBU.

CB - Robinson: Robinson played 49 snaps and was rated 69.7. He had 3 tackles. He played 86 tackles for USU last year and has 11 career tackles and 1 sack.

CB - Hayes: Hays played 42 snaps and was rated 61.6 last week, but had no stats. This is his first year at BYU, playing at Oregon State since 2018. He played 624 snaps before being injured in 2019. He had 46 tackles and 8 PBU for the Beavers.

The corners are okay. They don’t give up big plays and keep everything in front of them. Because of that, the defense gave up almost 350 yards in the air, but only a few passes over 20 yards. But they also don’t force turnovers and don’t get the offense off the field quickly because they play such soft zones.

S - Ah You: Ah You is BYU’s best player. He played 75 snaps and was rated 78.7. He had 9 tackles and 1 PBU last week. For his career, he has only 556 snaps because he was splitting time in 2019 and was hurt early in 2020. He appears to have recovered from that injury and looked fully capable against Arizona. He has 51 career tackles, 6.5 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INt and 4 PBU.

S - Moore: Moore played 67 snaps and was rated 62.3, which isn’t great. He had 1 tackle. He’s played 462 snaps and has 24 tackles, 2 INT and 1 PBU.

Ah You is very good and Moore is average, according to PFF. Expect Moore to be playing deep and Ah You to be covering TEs and RBs and playing in the middle.

So that’s BYU. They’re untested at QB, slightly above average at RB, have some weaknesses at OL, have a ton of potential at WR but still unknown, and have good but not great TEs. On defense their line is suspect, their linebackers and corners are average, and one safety is very good, while the other is just okay. I expect them to try and pass a lot, because I don’t see them running on Utah’s front seven. BYU’s receivers could get past Utah’s secondary a couple of times for long pass plays, but Utah should control both running and passing. After looking at the team, I’m expecting a little bit more scoring than normal rivalry games.

Prediction: Utah 37, BYU 24.