The University of Utah faces an ASU team in turmoil this week, as the university just fired head coach Herm Edwards. ASU also lost a ton from last year—mostly in the transfer portal due to pending program sanctions—and is also dealing with several injuries.
Here’s what Utah fans should expect this year. Let’s start by taking a look at what they lost on offense from last year’s team:
OT - Kellen Diesch. 87.2 (#2) on 823 snaps last year, Diesch got a FA contract with the Dolphins. He was an excellent college LT and will be tough to replace.
QB - Jayden Daniels. 83.2 (#3) on 796 snaps last year, Daniels transferred to LSU in the off-season. He went 197/301 (65.4) for 10 TD and 10 INT plus 138 carries for 710 yards (5.1 ypc) with 6 TD. Daniels was an electric but inconsistent player.
WR - Ricky Pearsall. 67.5 on 660 snaps, Pearsall had 48 catches (#1) for 580 yards (#1; 12.1 ypc) and 4 TD (#1) with only 2 drops.
OG - Henry Hattis. 57.8 on 561 snaps. Hattis played most of the snaps at RG but wasn’t great, although he pass-blocked okay (72.5).
TE - Curtis Hodges. 67.0 on 526 snaps. Hodges had 20 catches (#4) for 374 yards (#4; 18.7 ypc) and 2 TD. He got a FA contract with the Commanders.
RB - Rachaad White. 90.8 (#1) on 494 snaps. White had 182 carries for exactly 1000 yards (5.5 ypc) with 15 TD. White was a huge loss, and got drafted in the 3rd by the Bucs.
WR - LV Bunkley-Shelton. 69.0 on 415 snaps. 33 catches (#3) for 418 yards (#3; 12.7 ypc) with 2 TD. He transferred to Oklahoma in the off-season.
OG - Spencer Lovell. 68.6 on 276 snaps. Lovell got the snaps that Hattis didn’t. He transferred to Cal in the offseason.
TE - John Stivers. 53.5 on 260 snaps. Stivers had no targets and was mostly used for blocking. He graduated last year.
WR - Johnny Wilson. 63.7 on 206 snaps, Wilson had 12 catches for 154 yards (12.8 ypc) with 1 TD. He transferred to FSU in the offseason.
RB - Chip Trayanum. 68.3 on 180 snaps. Trayanum transferred to OSU in the offseason and is now listed as a LB. Last year he had 78 carries for 402 yards (5.2 ypc) with 6 TD.
This is a significant amount of lost experience. QB, 3 of the top 4 receivers, two starting OL and the top OL backup, and the top two RB.
Now let’s take a look at what they lost from last year’s defense:
S - DeAndre Pierce. 68.4 on 846 snaps, Pierce had 62 tackles (#4), 1 TFL, 1 sack, 2 INT, 4 PBU, and gave up 15 catches on 35 targets (42.9%).
CB - Jack Jones. 79.4 (#1) on 661 snaps, Jones had 41 tackles (#7), 2.5 TFL, 1 sack, 3 INT and 6 PBU, plus 33 catches on 50 targets (66.0%). He was taken in the 4th by the Patriots.
LB - Darien Butler. 73.1 (#5) on 592 snaps, Butler had 68 tackles (#2), 8.5 TFL, 2 sacks, 9 QB pressures, 3 INT, 3 PBU and gave up 20 catches on 31 targets (64.5%). He got a FA contract with the Raiders.
CB - Chase Lucas. 60.5 on 565 snaps, Lucas had 34 tackles, 1 TFL, 6 PBU, and gave up 37 catches on 59 targets (62.7%)
DT - DJ Davidson. 76.0 (#3) on 542 snaps, Davidson had 11 QB pressures, 57 tackles (#5), 6 TFL, 0.5 sacks, and 4 PBU.
DE - Michael Matus. 68.1 on 528 snaps, Matus had 16 QB pressures, 28 tackles, 5.5 TFL, and 0.5 sacks. Matus is out for the season with a knee injury.
DE - Tyler Johnson. 74.5 (#4) on 510 snaps, Johnson had 22 QB pressures, 36 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 4 sacks, and 3 PBU.
DT - Shannon Forman. 49.8 on 377 snaps, Forman had 6 QB pressures, 15 tackles, and 1 TFL.
S - Evan Fields. 64.5 on 356 snaps, Fields had 30 tackles, 0.5 TFL, and gave up 11 catches on 15 targets (73.3%)
LB - Eric Gentry. 71.1 (#7) on 341 snaps, Gentry had 45 tackles (#6), 5 TFL, 1 sack, and 2 PBU. He transferred to USC in the off-season.
Again, this is a lot of losses. Four of the top five DL, two of the top 4 LB, and three starting defensive backs.
Now let’s take a look at who we are likely to see from Arizona State on offense this week:
QB - Emory Jones. The Florida transfer has played all but 6 snaps at QB, rating 71.7 (#3) on 185 snaps. He’s been pretty good, going 45/78 (60.8) for 557 yards (7.5 ypa) with 2 TD and 0 INT, plus 12 rushes for 68 yards (3.6 ypc) with 3 TD and 1 fumble. He’s not Daniels or Richardson, but he’s able to move when necessary. He’s also been sacked 4 times and hit 27 times.
Jones has been inconsistent for the Sun Devils so far, but he has plenty of big game experience.
RB - Xazavian Valladay. 72.4 (#2) on 141 snaps so far, the Wyoming transfer has 52 attempts for 361 yards (6.9 ypc) with 4 TD. Valladay is playing pretty well right now, one of the bright spots for ASU’s team so far.
RB - Daniyel Ngata. 69.0 on 37 snaps so far, he has 20 attempts for 121 yards (6.2 ypc) but 0 TD so far.
Both RB are rated well and with good YPC. Vallady has been particularly consistent, getting 116 against NAU, 118 against OK ST, and 127 against EMU.
WR - Andre Johnson. 60.6 on 139 snaps, Johnson has 7 catches on 9 targets for 65 yards (9.3 ypc) with 1 TD and 0 drops.
WR - Elijhah Badger. 80.5 (#1) on 119 snaps. Badger is playing great, with 17 catches on 21 targets for 217 yards (12.8 ypc) and 1 TD with 1 drop. He’s quickly become Jones’s go-to receiver, with as many catches as the next three players combined and more than double the targets of the #2 receiver. Expect CPIII to spend a lot of time with him.
WR - Giovanni Sanders. 66.5 on 106 snaps, Sanders has 6 catches on 9 targets for 126 yards (21.0 ypc) with no TD and 0 drops.
WR - Charles Hall. 68.8 on 44 snaps, the JUCO transfer has 3 catches on 5 targets for 34 yards (11.3 ypc) with 0 TD and 0 drops.
ASU’s wide receivers are solid, and Badger is a good #1 receiver. If Utah is struggling with pressure or coverage, they’re very capable of making the defense pay. For those that are curious, former Ute Bryan Thompson has played 16 snaps this year and has 1 catch for 7 yards on 1 target.
TE - Messiah Swinson. 50.4 on 143 snaps, Swinson pass blocks well (73.4) but is in the red on every other category. He has 4 catches for 65 yards (16.3 ypc) on 7 targets with 2 drops.
TE - Case Hatch. 64.1 on 73 snaps, Hatch is mostly a blocking TE with only 1 target which he dropped. He blocks pretty well, outside of atrocious pass blocking against NAU where he was rated 30.8.
TE - Jalin Conyers. 36.3 on 41 snaps, Conyers is not rated well. He has 3 catches on 5 targets for 17 yards (5.7 ypc).
Swinson is an okay TE but not as reliable as you expect from a TE. Hatch is basically an extra Tackle, and Conyers has had trouble getting any yards after catch, in limited action.
LT - Isaia Glass. 40.6 on 121 snaps, he has 143 snaps in his college career, all at ASU. He had a terrible game against OK ST pass blocking (he was rated 0) and commits a good amount of penalties (3), but he’s not as bad as his rating. Still, there’s going to be an opportunity for Van Fillinger to get some pressure.
LG - LaDarius Henderson. 68.0 on 188 snaps, he has 1,629 career snaps for ASU the past 4 years. He’s also a much better pass blocker (82.4) than run blocker (64.1).
C - Ben Scott. 69.0 on 188 snaps, he has 1,260 career snaps for ASU and this year is a much better pass blocker (79.9) than run blocker (63.8)
RG - Chris Martinez. 45.7 on 188 snaps in his first year at ASU after transferring from SDSU. He’s rated poorly both pass blocking (44.1) and run blocking (45.7), but realistically he’s a better pass blocker than run blocker, despite a terrible game pass blocking against OK ST (11.2)
RT - Des Holmes. 56.6 on 121 snaps after transferring from Penn St. He’s a better run blocker (63.1) than pass blocker (56.9).
LT - Emmit Bohle. 54.1 on 101 snaps, Bohle has played all his snaps at LT when Glass moved over to RT, but hasn’t started any games.
This line has some experience in the middle, but the tackles are very inexperienced and rated poorly. They’re currently the #9 pass blocking team in the Pac-12 (56.8) and also #9 at run blocking (55.6).There will be opportunities for Utah’s defense to take advantage of this line and get pressure.
Overall ASU’s offense, despite some talented pieces, is struggling. They’re 120th in 3rd-down conversion percentage (10/35 for .286), they’re 105th in passing offense (185.7 ypg), they’re 53rd in rushing offense (189.3), and 91st in scoring offense (26.0 ppg).
Now a look at the defense.
DE - Anthonie Cooper. 68.1 on 143 snaps, Cooper is a 3-year starter for ASU. He has 7 QB pressures, 7 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 sack, and 3 missed tackles.
DL - Joe Moore. 57.4 on 141 snaps, Moore played a little bit the last two years but this is his first year as a starter. He has 5 QB pressures, 10 tackles, 1.5 TFL and 1 missed tackle.
DL - Nesta Jade Silvera. 69.2 on 119 snaps in his first year at ASU after transferring from Miami. Silvera has 0 QB pressures, 13 tackles, 1 PBU, 1 FF, and 4 missed tackles.
DE - Tautala Pesefea, Jr. 48.7 on 114 snaps in his fourth year at ASU. Pesefea has 3 QB pressures, 9 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1 PBU, and 1 missed tackle
DL - Travez Moore. 75.7 (#1) on 102 snaps in his second year at ASU after transferring from LSU. Moore has 4 QB pressures, 10 tackles, 2.5 TFL, and 1 missed tackle. He is the only ASU defensive player with at least 30 snaps who is rated 70 or above. For comparison, Utah has 3 in the 80s plus 4 in the 70s.
DL - BJ Green, II. 66.2 on 94 snaps. I was very surprised to look at Green’s sheet, because he was rated 90.8 against OK ST but 29.5 against EMU. He has 7 QB pressures, 4 tackles, and 3 missed tackles.
DL - Omar Norman-Lott. 63.9 on 70 snaps. Lott started the first two games but only played 3 snaps against EMU before leaving the game with an injury. I’m not sure if he’s playing this week or not. He has 3 QB pressures, 5 tackles, 1 PBU, and 2 missed tackles.
ASU rotates in a lot of DL and most of them are okay except J Moore and Pesefea, who are both rated very poorly. One thing to note here is the amount of missed tackles, with every single DL having at least one, and 15 between them.
LB - Kyle Soelle. 57.4 on 202 snaps, K Soelle played pretty well the first two games and then had a terrible game against EMU (29.3). He has 2 QB pressures, 39 tackles (#1), 0.5 TFL, 2 INT, 5 missed tackles, and has given up 8 receptions on 12 targets.
LB - Merlin Robertson. 60.3 on 197 snaps. Robertson has 2 QB pressures, 24 tackles (#2), 1 TFL, 1 sack, 1 FF, 5 missed tackles, and has given up 7 catches on 10 targets.
LB - Connor Soelle. 48.5 on 44 snaps. C Soelle has 5 tackles, 0.5 TLF, 2 missed tackles and has given up 4 receptions on 4 targets.
The linebackers are rated poorly, although K Soelle is probably better than his rating, although he’s had a similar rating the past several years as well. Again, serious tackling issues, with 12 missed tackles among the three linebackers.
FS - Kejuan Markham. 65.7 on 152 snaps, Kejuan Markham has 10 tackles and 1 INT.
CB - DJ Taylor. 69.7 on 147 snaps. Taylor has 8 tackles, 1 TFL, and 1 PBU, has given up 7 catches on 10 targets, and has 3 missed tackles.
CB - Timarcus Davis. 61.4 on 129 snaps. Davis has 12 tackles, 2 PBU, has given up 4 receptions on 8 targets, and has 1 missed tackle.
S/CB - Chris Edmonds. 65.7 on 128 snaps in his first year at ASU after transferring from Samford. He has 14 tackles, 1 PBU, 1 INT, has given up 5 receptions on 6 targets, and has 1 missed tackle.
CB - Keon Markham. 57.6 on 126 snaps. He’s got 11 tackles, 2 PBU, has given up 6 catches on 11 targets, and has 3 missed tackles.
CB - Ro Torrence. 66.1 on 111 snaps. He has 8 tackles, 3 PBU, and has given up 3 receptions on 8 targets. He was hurt against OSU and didn’t play at all last week, it’s unknown if he’ll play this week.
SS - Khoury Bethley. 56.5 on 106 snaps. He has 14 tackles, 1.5 TFL, has given up 5 receptions on 5 targets and has 2 missed tackles.
S/CB - Jordan Clark. 67.6 on 75 snaps. He has 4 tackles, 1 TFL, has given up 2 catches on 4 targets and has 3 missed tackles.
ASU plays a 4-2-5 base defense, like Utah, so there are 8 players with a lot of snaps. Taylor is the best of the bunch, but all of them have tackling issues and none are exceptional.
The theme for ASU’s defense is poor tackling. They’re rated 12/12 by PFF for tackling score (45.8) and have 48 missed tackles. For comparison the #11 team (CU) has only 39, and Utah, the #7 team, has 26. They’re also poorly rated as a run defense (11/12 at 45.8), which is understandable after EMU ran for 305 against them last week. Overall they are 106th on third-down defense (20/45), 102nd on rushing defense (175 ypg), 55th on scoring defense (22.33), 121st in sacks (.67 per game), and 54th in total defense (347.7). They are playing pretty well against the pass, giving up an average of 172.7 yards per game (#22) and ranked 32nd in passing efficiency defense, but a lot of that is probably because they’ve trailed most of the last two games.
ASU is a team in turmoil, losing their head coach because they’re playing poorly. Occasionally this can motivate a team to play well, but more often it causes additional distractions and adjustment issues. There is some talent on both sides of this team, but it’s unlikely they put it together this year. Expect Utah to run the ball effectively for a low-scoring game that rarely feels in doubt.
Prediction: Utah 27 - ASU 10
