The University of Utah’s magic number to get to the Pac-12 title game for the third time in four years is now, two. Two wins by Utah and they’re in. Two losses by ASU and they’re in. One win by Utah and one loss by ASU and they’re in. Both teams have three games left, and the first of Utah’s remaining games is Arizona. Let’s take a look at who Arizona lost from last year and who Utah is likely to see this year.

First, here’s who they lost on offense:

QB - McCloud: McCloud has played 176 snaps this year after transferring from USF. He’s rated 57.5 and has gone 48/72 (66.7%) for 481 yards (6.7 ypa) with 2 TD and 5 INT. He’s been sacked 4 times this year and has 15 rushing attempts for 99 yards (6.6 ypc). He got hurt earlier in the year and had ankle surgery, and is out the rest of the season.

OG - Congel: Congel played 361 snaps last year and 866 at Arizona (after transferring from ATM in 2018) and was rated 56.7 last year before transferring to Oklahoma in the offseason.

RB - Brightwell: Brightwell was the leading rusher last year and was rated 70.2 on 239 snaps. He had 664 career snaps. He went 88/390 (4.4 ypc) with 1 TD plus 13 catches for 53 yards (4.1 ypc). Was taken in the 6th by the Giants.

WR - Wright: Wright was the #2 WR last year in snaps, with 236, and was rated 61.3 by PFF. Last year was his first year. He entered the transfer portal and came back to the team and is still listed on the roster, but hasn’t played a snap this year. He had 15 catches on 22 targets for 176 yards (11.7 ypc) with 1 TD and 1 drop.

QB - Gunnell: Gunnell was the QB with the most snaps last year (186) and was rated 54.0 by PFF. He had 495 career snaps at Arizona. He went 64/93 (68.8%) for 625 yard (6.7 ypa) with 6 TD and 2 INT. He transferred to Memphis in the offseason.

OT - Gardner: Gardner played 144 snaps last year and 168 in his career and was rated 57.8 last year. He graduated and decided he was done with football.

Brightwell and Gunnell are the biggest losses. While Gunnell wasn’t rated great last year, he’s a good QB.

Here are the defensive losses:

DT - Lopez: Lopez played 242 snaps last year, his first year at Arizona after transferring from NMSU. He was rated 82.6 and had 10 QB pressures, 18 tackles, 4 TFL, and 1 sack. He was taken in the 6th by the Texans.

DT - Tapusoa: Tapusoa played 120 snaps last year and 379 career snaps. He was rated 57.8 last year and had 3 QB pressures, 7 tackles, and 1 TFL. He entered the transfer portal before this season, but I don’t know where he ended up.

DE - Blackwell: Blackwell played 142 snaps last year after transferring from New Mexico. He was rated 55.1 and had 3 QB pressures, 6 tackles, and 2 TFL.

DE - Brown: Brown has 177 snaps this year and 1,202 career snaps. He’s rated 62.4 and has 1 QB pressure, 8 tackles, and 2 TFL. He hasn’t played since the Oregon game for “personal reasons” and is not playing the rest of the season.

LB - Henley: Henley played 191 snaps last year at MLB and was rated 53.3 in his only year playing any snaps. He had 14 tackles, 1 TFL, and 1 PBU. He graduated HS in 2017, so I believe he graduated, but I couldn’t say for sure.

LB - Mourning: Mourning played 167 snaps last year and was rated 33.5 in his only year playing any snaps. He had 10 tackles and 1 PBU. He entered the transfer portal, but I don’t know if he caught on anywhere else.

LB - Hayward: Hayward has played 261 snaps this year after transferring from WMU. He was hurt before the CU game and hasn’t played since October. He is not expected back this week. He’s rated 61.2 with 4 QB pressures, 34 tackles, 2.5 TFL, and 5 missed tackles.

CB - Burns: Burns had 286 snaps last year and 2,711 in his career. He was rated 63.2 last year and had 24 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 PBU, and gave up 8 receptions on 15 targets. He went to the Cardinals as a UFA and ended up on the Jaguars.

PFF liked Lopez a ton, and Burns wasn’t terrible. The others were all very poorly rated.

Now here’s who to expect this week. First, the offense:

QB - Plummer: Plummer has played 323 snaps this year and 501 career snaps. He’s rated 64.4 this year and has gone 85/153 (55.6%) for 835 yards (5.5 ypa) with 2 TD and 7 INT. He’s been sacked 11 times this year. He also has 22 rushing attempts (not including sacks) and 179 yards (6.9 ypa) with 1 TD.

QB - Cruz: Cruz has played 178 snaps this year, his first after transferring from WSU. He’s rated 44.2 and has gone 61/93 (65.6%) for 536 yards (5.8 ypa) with 2 TD and 3 INT. He’s been sacked 9 times this year and has 10 rushing attempts for 55 yards (5.5 ypc).

Arizona is playing QB by committee this year. Plummer has started 4 games and played in 7, Cruz has started 3 and played in 5, and McCloud has started 2 and played in 3. Plummer has locked down the starting role, largely due to injuries to Cruz and McCloud, and he’s played every snap the last three weeks. None of them are rated well and all of them have a tendency to throw picks. I don’t know the injury status of Cruz, so if they’re healthy they could play, but Plummer should be expected.

RB - Anderson: Anderson has 266 snaps this year after transferring from Northwestern. He’s rated 69.6 this year and has 72 attempts for 265 yards (3.7 ypc) with 1 TD plus 16 catches for 91 yards (5.7 ypc).

RB - Wiley: Wiley has 223 snaps this year and 506 in his career. He’s rated 65.1 this year and has 76 attempts for 249 yards (3.3 ypa) with 3 TD plus 18 receptions for 154 yards (8.6 ypa) with 1 TD.

RB - John: John has 129 snaps this year and 160 in his career. He’s rated 67.4 this year and has 50 attempts for 214 yards (4.3 ypc) plus 4 catches for 34 yards (8.5 ypc).

RB - Rocker: Rocker has 85 snaps this year, his first year on the team. He’s rated 72.2 (#1 on offense) and has 21 carries for 124 yards (5.9 ypc) plus 5 catches for 51 yards (10.2 ypc)

Arizona uses a lot of running backs. All four have at least 20 carries and 80 snaps, and none have played 40% of the offensive snaps (Anderson is closest at about 38%). They’re all okay, but nobody is spectacular.

WR - Berryhill: Berryhill has 558 snaps this year and 1,416 in his career. He’s rated 71.3 (#2 on offense) and has 64 catches on 90 targets for 543 yards (8.5 ypc) with 1 TD and 1 drop.

WR - Casteel: Casteel has 495 snaps this year and 1,236 in his career. He’s rated 51.7 and has 29 catches on 50 targets for 268 yards (9.2 ypc) with 1 TD and 6 drops.

WR - Cunningham: Cunningham has 269 snaps this year and 725 in his career. He’s rated 64.3 and has 18 catches on 32 targets for 299 yards (16.6 ypc) with 2 TD and 2 drops.

WR - Curry: Curry has 171 snaps this year and 605 in his career. He’s rated 60.5 and has 13 catches on 18 targets for 147 yards (11.3 ypc) with 2 TD and 1 drop.

WR - Joiner: Joiner has 112 snaps this year and 899 in his career. He’s rated 55.0 and has 2 catches on 6 targets for 15 yards (7.5 ypc) with 1 drop.

WR - Johnson: Johnson has 101 snaps this year and 298 career. He’s rated 52.6 and has 3 catches on 9 targets for 38 yards (12.7 ypc).

Berryhill is a very good receiver, which is why he has nearly as many receptions (64) as all of the other WR combined (73). If the secondary can lock down Berryhill, the others are not rated very well and are unlikely to be a huge problem.

TE - Lines: Lines has 444 snaps this year after transferring from UNLV. He’s rated 46.5 and blocks about 60% of the time, with 265 blocking snaps to 179 receiving snaps. He has 8 catches on 13 targets for 117 yards (14.6 ypc) and 2 drops.

TE - Wolma: Wolma has 369 snaps this year and 1,734 in his career. He’s rated 50.1 and blocks about 57% of the time, with 209 blocking snaps and 160 receiving snaps. He has 6 catches on 8 targets for 42 yards (7 ypc) and 1 TD.

Both of the TEs play a lot, but neither is rated very well.

LT - Morgan: Morgan has 526 snaps this year and 767 career snaps. He’s rated 52.1 overall and is about equal at pass blocking (51.3) and run blocking (54.8)

LG - Laie: Laie has 567 snaps this year and 2,688 career. He’s rated 57.9 overall and is better at pass blocking (63.8) than run blocking (54.0)

C - McCauley: McCauley has 696 snaps this year and 2,616 career. He’s rated 69.4 overall and is much better at pass blocking (79.7) than run blocking (63.7.

RG - Baker: Baker has 488 snaps this year and 569 career. He’s rated 54.7 and is a little better at pass blocking (57.7) than run blocking (50.2).

RT - Fears: Fears has 696 snaps this year and 1,546 in his career. He’s rated 61.3 and is slightly better at pass blocking (63.9) than run blocking (58.5).

OG - Donovan: Donovan has 397 snaps this year and 572 career. He’s rated 58.6 this year and is much better at pass blocking (73.9) than run blocking (57.3). He also commits a lot of penalties (5). He’s actually started 6 games this year at RG, but Baker has more snaps overall. Donovan is likely to start, but I put Baker in because he has more snaps.

This isn’t a great OL. They give up a lot of sacks, with 24 among their top 3 QBs, which would tie for worst in the conference if that had all been one QB.

Outside of Berryhill, who has a good shot at playing on Sundays, this isn’t a good offense. They’re 101st in total offense (352.4 ypg), 125th in scoring offense (16.0 ypg), 86th in passing yards (215.2 ypg), 91st in rushing yars (137.2 ypg), and tied for 126th in turnovers, with 20 (only Southern Miss and Hawaii have more, and Hawaii’s played 10 games). If Utah plays even an average defensive game, they should be able to hold Arizona’s offense to single digits.

Now a look at the defense:

DE- Harris: Harris has 505 snaps this year and 1,734 career snaps. He is rated 68.4 and has 15 QB pressures, 35 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks, 3 PBU, and 4 missed tackles.

DL - Mason: Mason has 427 snaps this year and 1,216 career snaps. He is rated 67.4 and has 14 QB pressures, 36 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks, 3 PBU, and 4 missed tackles. Yes, in a statistical coincidence, Harris and Mason have almost exactly the same stats.

DL - Barrs: Barrs has 319 snaps this year and 854 career snaps. He is rated 75.7 (#1 on defense and the only player rated above 70). He has 14 QB pressures, 26 tackles, 7 TFL, and 5 sacks.

DE - Diallo: Diallo has 221 snaps this year after transferring from CMU last year. He is rated 55.2 and has 9 QB pressures, 27 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 3 sacks, and 7 missed tackles.

DL - Shand: Shand has 203 snaps this year and 228 career snaps. He’s rated 60.7 and has 7 QB pressures, 11 tackles, 2 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and 2 missed tackles.

DL - Tatum: Tatum has 142 snaps this year after transferring from Fresno St. He is rated 56.4 and has 4 QB pressures, 14 tackles, 3 TFL, and 4 missed tackles.

Barrs is a very good player who is sort of a dedicated pass rusher and is good at getting pressure. The rest of the DL isn’t great.

MLB - Pandy: Pandy has 545 snaps this year and 1,768 career snaps. He’s rated 48.8 and has 8 QB pressures, 62 tackles (#1 on team), 1 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, and 10 missed tackles.

OLB - Hebert: Hebert has 312 snaps this year after transferring from Vanderbilt. He’s rated 66.7 and has 12 QB pressures, 25 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INT, 1 PBU, 1 FF and 4 missed tackles.

MLB - Roberts: Roberts has 240 snaps this year after transferring from BGSU. He’s rated 40.8 and has 5 QB pressures, 24 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and 6 missed tackles.

MLB - Hodge: Hodge has 85 tackles this year after transferring from NMSU. He’s rated 59.9 and has 1 QB pressure, 10 tackles, 3 TFL, 0.5 sacks, and 2 missed tackles.

The linebackers are not rated well, although Pandy has pretty good stats, averaging almost 7 tackles per game.

CB - Roland-Wallace: Roland-Wallace has 565 snaps this year and 1,563 career snaps. He’s rated 65.3 and has 39 tackles, 2 TFL, 0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 1 PBU, and has given up 21 receptions on 34 targets.

CB - Rutherford: Rutherford has 390 snaps this year after transferring from Notre Dame. He’s rated 57.5 and has 17 tackles, 2 TFL, 2 PBU, and has given up 11 catches on 22 targets.

CB - Stukes: Stukes has 298 snaps this year and 364 career snaps. He’s rated 56.1 and has 16 tackles, 4 PBU, and has given up 12 receptions on 26 targets.

SS - C Young: Young has played 573 snaps this year and 1,184 career snaps. He’s rated 63.3 and has 56 tackles, 2 TFL, 3 PBU, and has given up 13 catches on 25 targets.

FS - Turner: Turner has played 451 snaps this year and 731 career snaps. He’s rated 59.1 and has 45 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 5 PBU, and has given up 10 catches on 18 targets.

FS - Maldonado: Maldonado has played 329 snaps this year after transferring from Northwestern. He’s rated 57.0 and has 31 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 1 PBU, 1 FF, and has given up 6 catches on 9 targets. He didn’t play against Cal but I believe he is expected to play this week.

SS - J Young: Young has played 312 snaps this year and 345 in his career. He’s rated 42.3 and has 33 tackles, 1 TFL, 3 PBU, and has given up 14 catches on 20 targets.

The secondary is mostly bad. None of them are rated in the 70s and only Roland-Wallace is above 65. Their team pass efficiency defense is 93rd in the country.

Arizona’s defense is playing better than their offense. They’re actually rated well against the pass, at 13th (182.4 ypg) but that’s because they’ve been behind for most games they’ve played this year, and the run defense shows that, rating at 94th (171.8 ypg). They’re 82nd in scoring defense (28.56 ppg). They get some pressure, coming in at 76th in sacks (2.0 spg), but not a ton.

Basically, if Utah doesn’t completely shoot themselves in the foot, they should be able to pick the score. Arizona has only reached 20 once, scoring 34 in a loss to USC. They’ve given up more than 20 in every game except last week against Cal. I suspect this will be similar to Stanford, with a ton of rushing yards and one or two garbage scores from Arizona against the second team or on a lucky play.

Prediction: Utah 42 - Arizona 10