A Look at the Opponent: Utah vs. UCLA
The Basics:
Record: 4-5 (4-2 Pac-12)
Avg. total yards: 406.4
Avg. pass yards: 235.7
Avg. rush yards: 170.8
Avg. points per game: 29.3
Total yards allowed per game: 432.6
Pass yards allowed per game: 294.3
Rush yards allowed per game: 137.2
Points per game allowed: 32.0
Both Utah and UCLA are coming off BYE weeks as college football turns into the final quarter of the season. On paper, this looks like it should be another Utah blowout, as ESPN’s FPI gives the Utes an 89.4% chance to win the game. In addition to that, the Vegas books tend to agree, as Kyle Whittingham’s squad come into this weekend as 21.5 point favorites. Utah boasts an 8-1 record and a top-10 ranking, while UCLA is 4-5 and fighting for bowl eligibility. However, UCLA has won its last three games with double-digit wins over Colorado, Arizona State, at Stanford and sit at 4-2 in conference play, just behind the Utes. The Utes are historically great coming off of byes, but is this set up for a trap game?
Strength: Defensive momentum
Over their win streak, the Bruins held two of their three opponents under 300 yards. Given that up until that point they were allowing over 500, the defense has stepped up in a big way and faces a tough test with Zach Moss and Tyler Huntley leading the show. UCLA had four sacks in their win over Colorado, just one against Arizona State, but seven in their win at Stanford. While Utah’s offensive line has grown over the season, they will be key in Utah setting the tone for the game. One interesting point is that in those three victories, UCLA only forced a few turnovers total. If the Bruins want to keep it close in Salt Lake City, they will need a few key turnovers to upset the Utes.
Question mark: Discipline
Despite winning their past three games, the Bruins are averaging over eight penalties in those victories. This may be a small point to make, but it could have a large impact on their performance on the road. UCLA’s wins over Colorado and ASU were at home in the friendly confines of the Rose Bowl, where small mistakes can are a bit more forgivable. Their win at Stanford was a blowout in a stadium not known for its hostility, and the Cardinal are not the typical David Shaw team the Pac-12 has come to know during his tenure. Rice-Eccles stadium with the MUSS and North End Zone are not going to be a casual walk at The Farm and will not let up on Saturday night. If anything, visiting team mistakes are fuel for a top-5 atmosphere and the home crowd is fully aware of what this Utah team has at stake. Look for shades of UCLA’s 2007 visit to appear, where the 3rd Down Jump was born. Does DTR repeat Ben Olsen’s ‘07 visit?
X-Factor: BYE week rust
Both teams are riding win streaks into this match up. Both teams sit atop the Pac-12 South division. One coach has built his reputation on high-powered offense. One coach has built his reputation on shutdown defenses. Both teams are coming off bye weeks. UCLA sits directly behind Utah in the division standings and knows that a win could disrupt the conference’s chance at a College Football Playoff berth, but it also gets them one step closer to becoming bowl eligible. The Utes know they are on the precipice of something special, but they must win the division before anything else can happen. Look for both teams to come out on a mission.
Score prediction: Utah 31, UCLA 13