Alright, let’s take a look at one of the Pac-12’s hottest teams (outside of Salt Lake or Eugene): the 3-0 (over the last 3) UCLA Bruins.
Let’s start with what they lost:
Quarterback— Speight. Speight transferred from Michigan to play in 7 games for UCLA last year. He was okay but not good, going 126/208 (60.6%) for 1527 (7.34 ypa) with 6 TD and 6 INT. He also had 2 rushing TDs last year. He was okay in replacing DTR, but not good. In total the UCLA QBs threw 403 passes for 2853 yards with 13 TDs and 10 INT, so Speight was 53.5% of the yards and 51.6% of the attempts last year.
Running backs— Olorunfunmi was the only RB from 2018 who does not return. He had 31 attempts for 85 yards and 4 TDs last year. Kelly was the #1 back, Irby was #2, and Allen was really #3, so Olorunfunmi’s loss is not much of an issue. The top 4 RBs had 331 carries for 1703 yards and 18 TDs, so Olorunfunmi’s loss is 9.4% of carries, 5.0% of yards, and 22% of TDs.
Tight end— Wilson. Wilson was UCLA’s #1 receiver in 2018 in terms of catches (60) and yards (965) and was tied for #1 in TDs (4). He was a matchup nightmare at 6’4” and 235 lb and is now an Arizona Cardinal.
Wide receiver— Howard. Howard was UCLA’s #2 receiver in 2018 in terms of catches (51), yards (677), and was tied for #1 in TDs (4). He played in one game this year, with no stats, and entered the transfer portal.
Wide receiver— Pabico. Pabico was UCLA’s #6 receiver in 2018 in terms of catches (13) and yards (140) but had no touchdowns.
All of their other pass-catchers are back.
Offensive line — James. The OT Played 874 snaps last year, rated 62.8 (#3 OL last year). He’s an Oakland Raider now.
Offensive line— Alves. The OG played 751 snaps last year and was rated 65.6 (#1 OL last year).
Offensive line— Murphy. The OG started at RG the first few weeks before getting hurt and losing his starting spot. Transferred from TTECH in 2016 and then to Houston this year. Rated 65.3 last year (#2 OL), he played 322 snaps.
The losses on offense weren’t terrible. Most of the RBs were back, as was the real #1 QB (DTR). The loss of Wilson was big, but Howard was sliding down the depth chart before entering the portal.
Now on Defense. The losses are as follows:
Defensive line— R Wade. Wade was a part-time starter (383 snaps) who PFF didn’t like much (58.1) but he was a 3-year starter on the DL and had 20 tackles, 3 TFL and 1 sack last year.
Defensive line— E Wade. Elijah Wade has been held out with injury, it is unknown if he’ll play this week. He’s a solid contributor, playing 130 snaps so far. PFF likes him (76.3 is #3 on the defense), but he’s gotten limited use (12 tackles so far, no TFL, no sacks)
Linebacker— Thompson. Thompson had off-season foot surgery and has been unable to practice so far, but he could return at some point. As with Lake below, his return this week is unlikely. He was #4 in tackles last year (55) with 6 TFL and 1 PBU
Linebacker— Calvert. Calvert was ruled ineligible for this season, but Kelly has not been clear if that suspension is continuing or finished after 8 games. He did not play much last year, but was expected to be a contributor or starter this year before the suspension (PFF really liked him, ranking him #2 on Defense behind Holmes at 78.5, but he only played 64 snaps so that rating is likely inflated).
Cornerback— Meadors. Meadors played 522 snaps last year, so consider him a part-time starter (that’s about 65%). He had 37 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INT, and 2 PBU last year and was a solid corner (PFF rated him 66 last year, but 83.6 the year before). He’s a Minnesota Viking now.
Safety— Pickett. UCLA’s #1 tackler had 123 tackles, 2 INT, and 4 PBU last year. He was the #4 rated defensive player among players with at least 100 starts (75.2).
Safety— Lake. Lake played the first few weeks, but has been sitting out the past 3 games with a hand injury. He has been practicing on the scout team but is still wearing a cast. He’s not expected back for Utah, but his return is possible. He was #3 in tackles last year (67), had 1 TFL and 2 INT plus 5 PBU.
The losses at safety and linebacker are big, but the defense and offense were both pretty young and returned a lot of experience. There’s a reason UCLA was expected to take a step forward this year.
Now let’s take a look at who we’ll actually be facing:
Quarterback— DTR. DTR is doing okay. PFF has him rated at 71.3, which is #7 among offensive players with at least 100 snaps. He’s 147/243 (60.5%) for 1837 (7.55 ypa) with 17 TD and 8 INT. He’s also run 83 times for 194 yards (2.3 ypc) with 3 TDs. He’s a solid QB who makes mistakes when he’s pressured. Utah’s seen several higher-ranked QBs this year, including Eason (84.2), Gordon (82.1), and Luton (81.4).
Running backs— Kelley. Kelley is a good RB (78.2 is good for #2 on the team) with 176/861 (4.9 ypc) and 9 TDs. He also splits time pretty significantly with Felton (75/331 for 4.4 ypc and 1 TD) but this is not quite the RB by committee we saw against UW.
Kelley is part of a group of Pac-12 RBs who are right in the upper 70s, including several of Utah’s upcoming opponents (Fontenot is #3 on the list, Brightwell is #4, Mangham is #6) and several Utah has faced already (Pierce is #5, Ahmed is #7, McGrew is #9, Brown is #10, Borghi is #12, Malepeai is #13, etc). There are two Pac-12 RBs who have set themselves apart: Moss at 89.9 and Taylor at 85.7 (which is nearly 6 points ahead of Fontenot).
Running back/Wide receiver— Felton is #1 in receptions (39), yards (471) and tied for #2 in TD (with 3). He’s also #2 in rushing attempts. As has been mentioned, he’s sort of a Swiss Army Knife for them and he’s all over the field.
Wide receiver— Phillips is #2 in receptions (36) and yards (404) and is #1 in TD (with 5). PFF thinks he’s okay (71.8)
Wide receiver— Erwin is #3 in receptions (28), #4 in yards (282) nad has 1 TD (tied with 5 other UCLA receivers). PFF is not impressed (59.2)
Tight end— Asiasi is #4 in receptions (26), #3 in yards (329) and tied for #2 in TD (with 3). He’s rated fairly average by PFF (67.7)
Tight end— Martinez is UCLA’s top-rated offensive player at 83.7 (he’s also the only one over 80). He’s played a lot of snaps and gets credit for good blocking, but he only has 2 catches for 32 yards.
This is not a great group of WR. Among Pac-12 and BYU WR/TE with at least 20 targets, Phillips is #17, Asiasi is #24, and Erwin is #47.
Offensive line— PFF likes one of UCLA’s OL quite a bit: RT Jake Burton (77.7) has 645 snaps and is the #3 player on the offense. Occasional starting LG Alec Anderson (68.4) has 263 snaps and is the #2 rated OL on the team. Things devolve dramatically from there, with backup OG Jon Gaines (58.2) #3 on the team (134 snaps), C Boss Tagaloa (58.0) #4 (661 snaps), and Anderson’s replacement, LG Duke Clemens (57.8) at #5 (374 snaps). You’ll notice I haven’t mentioned a starting left tackle or right guard yet. That’s because they’re the #25 and #26 players on the offense (and the two lowest starters by far). RG Christaphany Murray (55.1) has 662 snaps and LT Sean Rhyan (54.1) has 640 snaps. That is NOT a good place to have a weakness at OL (as you may remember from the ASU game). Expect Anae to have a big day, and expect to see TE Martinez lined up over there to help Rhyan a lot.
Here’s the breakdown on the defense. UCLA has three starters that PFF likes a lot, one on the DL and two LB. This is not, statistically, a very good defense, but they have shown the ability to make some things happen when their offense is carrying the load.
Defensive line— UCLA also rotates their DL a lot, with one exception: DT Odighizuwa (81.9) is in on most snaps (468 is 4th on the team, which is high for DL). He’s the #1 player on UCLA’s defense, and Umana and the guards are going to need to be ready for him, as he is good against both run and pass. The next highest snap count on the DL is DE/LB Harris (58.2), with 279 snaps. Harris is a good tackler, but struggles in other areas. DT Manoa (58.7) is next on the snap list (254). Manoa is also a good tackler, but not great against the run and rarely gets pressure. DE Isibor (51.3) is next in snap count (210), and his only decent grade is tackling, suffering in both rushing and run defense. DT Mafi (63.8) is the only other DL above 150 snaps (195). Mafi is the worst tackler on the team, so expect Moss to be directed his way quite a bit.
Linebacker— PFF likes two of UCLA’s linebackers, LB Lucier-South (71.3) and LB Barnes (70.7). Lucier-South is good at pass rushing and decent in coverage, Barnes is good at stopping the run and decent in coverage. Lucier-South also struggles tackling, however, so if he’s lined up behind Mafi, expect Moss to go right at the two of them. LB Woods is okay (63.0), as is LB Lo Toailoa. PFF doesn’t like LB Le Toailoa (52.7) nearly as much as his brother, nor does it like LB Jones (46.2)
Cornerback— PFF is not a fan of UCLA’s corners. Shaw (64.9) is the top corner, and he’s rated #11 on their defense. Behind him are Holmes (56.5) and Gates (52.8), who are way down the list (#22 and #23, respectively). Finally, part-time starter Williams (48.3) is just above LB Jones for the last spot on the defense. If the OL gives Huntley some time, there are going to be some open WR.
Safety— PFF thinks Lake and Blaylock (67.4) are okay, but Lake is not expected to play. UCLA’s Guidry (64.6) isn’t as good as Utah’s Guidry (72.2). Basically the safeties are all average. The big difference between Lake and Guidry is that Lake is good in coverage and Guidry isn’t. Guidry is better than Lake against the run.
Basically UCLA is an okay team. They have some good parts (RB, DT, LB), some average parts (QB, S) and some bad parts (CB, WR, OL). They don’t match up well against Utah’s defense, but if Utah didn’t have Moss we might have trouble running up the middle. Luckily, Utah have Moss, so that’s not going to be too much of a problem.
Here’s the team breakdown for both sides:
Passing Odefense
Utah- 86.1 (#2 in the PAC 12 behind Oregon)
UCLA- 69.4 (#9 in the PAC 12)
Utah is up to #2, slipping just ahead of WSU. UCLA is not passing well. Utah’s still not doing a great job of pass blocking (we’re #10 in the PAC 12 at 60.3), but Huntley’s making it work. Lucky for Utah, UCLA is even worse at pass blocking (last in the PAC 12 at 57.9) and DTR isn’t Huntley.
Receiving Offense
Utah- 74.3 (#2 in the Pac-12, behind USC)
UCLA- 65.6 (#9 in the Pac-12)
As with passing, Utah has slipped past WSU for the #2 spot, and UCLA is 9th. Against Utah’s secondary, don’t expect many open receivers. Again, watch for Felton, he’s the wild card in the receivers.
Rushing Offense
Utah- 83.5 (#4 in the Pac-12)
UCLA- 79.7 (#6 in the Pac-12)
Utah’s down a spot, behind Arizona, UW, and OSU. UCLA is running well, with Kelley and Felton providing good sparks. Again, they’ve got to run against Utah’s defense, however, so don’t expect too much, but watch for Felton to try and take advantage on the edges with his speed. Neither Utah nor UCLA are run blocking very well (Utah is 9th at 63.9, UCLA is 6th at 66.9), but Moss is better than Kelley and Felton at taking what’s there.
Overall Offense
Utah- 80.2 (#4 in the Pac-12)
UCLA- 72.3 (#9 in the Pac-12)
Utah is good through the air and on the ground, with good receivers but some suspect blocking. UCLA is bad at passing and average at running, with similarly bad blocking. And this is taking into account their 67-63 game against WSU. Their offense is struggling except against ASU (and that was ASU’s post-Utah game). They won’t be winning a shootout. They’re going to try and run and hit play-action. Expect Utah’s defense to be prepared.
Run Defense
Utah- 91.0 (#1 in the Pac-12)
UCLA- 79.9 (#5 in the Pac-12)
UCLA hasn’t been terrible against the run (as I mentioned, they’ve got good DTs and LBs), but Utah’s great at this. Utah has given up over 100 yards rushing one time this year, against ASU (on one late Benjamin run with the game already in hand). Against UW (PFF’s #2 rushing team in the PAC 12), Utah gave up 53 yards on 22 carries (2.4 ypc). Against OSU (PFF’s #3 rushing team in the PAC 12), we gave up 48 yards on 22 carries (2.2 ypc). Kelley is going to try and get yards on the ground, but it’s tough sledding.
Tackling
Utah- 77.1 (#4 in the Pac-12)
UCLA- 77.0 (#5 in the Pac-12)
Here’s one category where the teams are similar. Outside of Mafi and Lucier-South, most of UCLA can tackle. Utah’s also been steadily improving this score during the year.
Pass Rush
Utah- 78.9 (#2 in the Pac-12)
UCLA- 65.0 (#7 in the Pac-12)
UCLA isn’t getting pressure, but they are getting to the QB more than Utah (21 sacks on the year, as opposed to 18). Expect that to change this week, as I expect more sacks by Utah than by UCLA.
Pass Coverage
Utah- 93.7 (#1 in the Pac-12)
UCLA- 53.8 (#11 in the Pac-12)
UCLA is BAD in coverage. Very bad. Wazzou is better in coverage than UCLA. Expect WR to be open, and expect Huntley to have time to hit them.
Overall Defense
Utah- 94.4 (#1 in the Pac-12)
UCLA- 68.4 (#9 in the Pac-12)
UCLA isn’t any better on defense than they were on offense, although they’re not terrible against the run. Still, expect Huntley to have a fairly good day and Moss to get his, because nobody holds him down.
OVERALL TEAM SCORES
Utah- 92.8 (#1 in the Pac-12)
UCLA- 74.8 (#9 in the Pac-12)
UCLA isn’t good. They’ve looked good the last three weeks against bad teams (CU is #10, ASU is #11, Stanford is #7). Expect Utah to control this game on both sides. There’s a reason the line opened at Utah -21 and actually moved in Utah’s direction (despite that line being enormous), up to -21.5 or -22 in some places right now.
ESPN also likes Utah:
ESPN Offensive Efficiency:
Utah- 79.6 (#8 in the nation; #2 in the Pac-12 behind WSU)
UCLA- 46.8 (#72 in the nation, #106 in the Pac-12 ahead of only ASU at #73 and Cal at #93)
ESPN Defensive Efficiency:
Utah- 87.9 (#5 in the nation; #1 in the Pac-12)
UCLA- 53.0 (#61 in the nation, #7 in the Pac-12)
Prediction
UCLA isn’t very good. They can run the ball, and I expect them to try, but Utah is great at stuffing the run. If Utah plays even close to a decent game, UCLA can’t hang. Expect Utah to get up big early and UCLA to be unable to catch up. 31-6 Utes.
