Ten wins down, one to go. The only thing standing between Utah and back-to-back Pac-12 title game appearances: the Colorado Buffaloes. Colorado isn’t good, their win over Washington notwithstanding. As with six of the past eight games, if Utah stays focused and plays clean, Colorado hasn’t got much chance.
Let’s start with what they lost:
No QB— All of 2018’s QBs are still on the roster, lead by Steven Montez.
RB, McMillian— McMillian was a solid RB in his one year as a Buffalo (201/1009 for 5.0 ypc with 7 TD). He had 620 snaps and was rated solidly (71.3) by PFF. Signed a UFA with Pittsburgh.
RB, Evans— The backup, Evans had 254 snaps and went 69/201 for 2.9 ypc with 3 TD. He wasn’t good (58.1 PFF rating) but he was… available.
RB, Bisharat— Bisharat had 21/143 for 6.8 ypc last year, but was moved to TE in the off-season, where he’s had a single catch for 2 yards (but it does appear they may try to redshirt him). Regardless, he’s not a RB anymore (no carries this year)
WR, Winfree— The #4 WR in catches (28) and yards (324; 11.6 ypc) with 2 TDs, he was a decent WR (67.7 PFF rating), but not special.
WR, McIntyre— The #5 WR in catches (20) and yards (165; 8.3 ypc) with 2 TDs, the old coach’s son seemed like a good locker room kid, but wasn’t a very good WR (54.8 PFF rating)
WR, Ento— The #6 WR in catches (12) and yards (161; 13.4 ypc) with no TDs, Ento isn’t a big loss either (59.0)
As you’ll note, however, the top 3 pass-catchers are back.
RT, Kaiser— Kaiser was the starting RT last year (624 snaps, started every game except Arizona). He was average (61.5 rating).
LG, Tonz— Tonz started 5 of the first 6 games and participated in three others (601 snaps), but wasn’t very good (54.7) and lost his starting job after a disastrous game against Washington, where his overall rating was 36.7 and he gave up 4 QB hits, 1 sack, and 3 hurries.
RG, Haigler— started every game except Washington last year (665 snaps) and was average (62.9 rating). It appeared he had another season of eligibility, but announced he was hanging them up in the offseason.
OL, Fillip— The OT played in 8 games (216 snaps) and started two last year, but hasn’t played this year. He wasn’t very good last year (48.4 was the lowest rating of any offensive player with at least 100 snaps) but it’s a surprise he hasn’t seen the field at all, as he was a freshman last year. Still, he’s not expected this week..
That’s a lot of OL talent to lose (as Utah knows well). 3 starting OL and a top backup are tough to replace and explain some of Colorado’s troubles on this side of the ball.
Now on Defense. The losses are as follows:
DL, Edwards— Edwards was the biggest loss from last year’s defense. PFF put him #3 on the defense (78.6) and while his stats were pedestrian (33/3/1.5) they don’t tell the story of this massive defensive lineman (6.3”, 350). He got a Houston UFA contract.
DE, Antwine— Antwine transferred to OK ST in the off-season. He was Colorado’s #7 defensive player (rated 72.2) with 15 tackles, 1.5 TFL, and 0.5 sacks in 467 snaps.
DE, Mulumba— Mulumba played only 278 snaps last year, and never started, but was a top rotational player. He was rated about average (63.3) but had 24 tackles, 1.5 TFL and 0.5 sacks.
DL, Tuiloma— Tuiloma played 203 snaps and never started, but was rated above average (69.0). He had another season left of eligibility, but I couldn’t find what happened to him other than it appears he decided he was done with football.
LB, Gamboa— The #2 tackler last year (71) also had 1.5 TFL, an INT, 2 PBU and a FF. 64.4 PFF rating is okay, not great.
LB, Lewis— The #3 tackler last year (60) also had 5.5 TFL and 2 sacks plus 1 INT and 4 PBU. 72.8 PFF rating puts him 6th on the defense last year. Got a UFA from Houston.
CB, Udoffia— Udoffia only played about 360 snaps last year, but was a solid CB (65.0 rating; 31 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 PBU). For some reason he hasn’t played this year at all, and is not expected this week against Utah.
CB, Wigley— Wigley’s stats are fairly average (37/1.5 with 1 INT and 2 PBU), but PFF did not like him at all (59.5 is the 2nd lowest rating on the defense, just ahead of Blackmon). He was the CB with the most snaps last year (596) by about 100 (Abrams was #2 with 493)
CB R. Blackmon— Blackmon played a decent amount (99 snaps) but wasn’t a starter by any stretch. PFF didn’t like him (51.2).
CB, M. Blackmon— Blackmon played the first four games this year before getting hurt against Arizona (204 snaps). He was very good against Nebraska, but below average the rest of the year (59.4 overall).
CB, Miller— Miller also played the first four games before getting hurt against ASU. He was also very good against Nebraska, and was solid overall (66.9).
S, Fisher— 43 tackles (#6), 1 INT, 3 PBU last year, he was rated 63.1 by PFF, which is fairly average.
S, Worthington— 41 tackles (#7), 3.5 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INT, 4 PBU. This was a pretty big step down from his Junior year, where he had approximately double most of those stats (87/6.5/1 with 3 INT and 6 PBU). Some of that appears to have been injury related. Still, PFF liked him well enough (70.0 puts him at #8 on the defense), as did the Ravens (who gave him a UFA contract).
That’s a lot of defensive talent. There’s a reason Colorado was picked 11th in the Pac-12 media poll, and then they lost two starting corners to injury.
Now let’s take a look at who we’ll actually be facing:
QB, Montez— I’m going to assume Montez plays, despite the sore ribs, but I’ll give the backup info below just in case. Montez is a good QB, and his stats reflect that. He’s 238/379 (62.8%) for 2651 yards (7.0 ypa) with 15 TD and 10 INT. He makes mistakes trying to do too much, but he’s fairly accurate. Still, there will be chances for Utah’s secondary to get turnovers, and I expect at least one pick this week. PFF likes Montez well enough (75.7 is good for 6th on the offense). Montez is also fairly mobile, and has 56/174 (3.1 ypc) and 3 TD on the ground.
RB, Fontenot— Fontenot is a good RB (79.3 rating, 172/825/5 for 4.8 ypc), but he’s not spectacular. He’s part of a group of Pac-12 running backs who are right in the upper 70s but haven’t quite separated themselves. As I mentioned last week, only JJ Taylor and Zack Moss have separated themselves, and Utah kept Taylor bottled up last week (his 55.3 score was his lowest by far of the year). Don’t expect room for Fontentot.
RB, Mangham— Colorado splits carriest between Fontenot (462 snaps, 172 carries) and Mangham (311 snaps, 107 carries). Mangham is also a good RB (78.9), but he’s not quite as good, statistically, as Fontentot: 107/441 (4.1 ypc) for 3 TD.
RB, Smith— The #3 RB is a freshman and has gotten about 47 snaps and 20 carries. He’s used those 20 carries to get 59 yards (3.0 ypc) and no touchdowns. If Smith (rating 54.7) is in the game, things have gone very badly for one team or the other.
WR, Brown— An amazing failure by the Colorado coaching staff is the fact that Tony Brown is #1 in catches for Colorado. Brown is fine (55/698 for 12.7 ypc with 5 TD; PFF rating 79.1), but he’s not Shenault, who is an amazing WR. Brown should not be leading this team in catches. Still, you can’t just take away Shenault, Brown has the ability to make teams pay.
WR, Shenault— Shenault is the #2 rated WR among the PAC 12 (86.6), behind only OSU’s Hodgins. He’s got solid stats, 52/721 for 13.9 ypc with 4 TD, but he should be having a better season. Part of the problem is Colorado’s OL, which is not playing well.
WR, Nixon— Nixon is #3 in catches (34) for 463 yards (13.6 ypc) with 3 TD. He’s a solid WR, but not spectacular (65.5).
WR, Stanley— PFF doesn’t think much of Stanley (54.5), and the stats show why. Despite 508 snaps (#2 among WR and more than Shenault), he only has 27 catches for 278 yards (10.3 ypc) and 2 TD.
TE, Russell— Russell is not a good TE (53.5) and is mostly used for blocking (670 snaps, only 20 catches for 203 yards for 10.2 ypc with 1 TD).
The top 2 WR are the best pair Utah has faced since USC (Shenault is #2 in the PAC, Brown is #7), but the rest of the pass-catchers are very low (Nixon is #32, Stanley is #61, Russell is #64 out of 65). The linebackers won’t have to worry about Russell too much, but Blackmon and Burgess need to be good in help over the top against Brown and Shenault.
Offensive line— PFF likes LT Hambright quite a bit (77.0) and backup RG Pursell (72.5). The rest of the starting OL ranges from average (LG Kutsch at 64.2 and RT Sherman at 63.9) to bad (C Lynott at 59.8; RG Roddick at 58.7; and RG Shutack at 56.5). The center and RG are the weak link in the line, so expect Fotu and Penisini to have a good day. Hambright is a good LT, so for the first time in a few weeks, expect Anae to have to work a little bit to get into the backfield.
PFF does not like Colorado’s defense very much. They have two starters above 70 (DT Johnson and CB Abrams) and several below 65.
Defensive ends— As with most college defenses, Colorado rotates the DL quite a bit. Their top DL is Johnson (73.5) who has 24/4/4 so far this year, plus a FF. DE Tchangam has been okay (64.5 with 19/2.5/2.5 and 1 FF). The rest of the DL has been varying degrees of bad, from PFF’s perspective: DT Sami (62.0), DE Lang (58.3), DT Williams (49.7), DE Jordan (48.4) and DT Rodman (48.4) all have played at least 180 snaps this year. Lang has been productive (28/6.5/5.5) but also has by far the most snaps among the DL (548). CU really relies on their linebackers to make plays, but their DL has not been effective this year. Luckily, this should give Utah’s OL the ability to both open up holes and to protect Tyler, which should mean a long day for the Buffs.
Linebackers— Colorado has one linebacker who has led the team in tackles for the past two years, Landman. The JR has 103 tackles this year, along with 7 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 INT and 4 PBU. That’s nearly double the #2 tackler, Taylor (PFF rating 61.1), who has 64 tackles (along with 8 TFL, 1 sack and 4 PBU). He’s a good run defender and pass rusher, but suffers in coverage. His PFF rating (63.2) is not as high as these tackle numbers might suggest, and the reason for that is that his tackles are high because the DL is having trouble making plays. PFF actually likes Wells slightly more (66.2), although he doesn’t have the stats of Landman (38 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INT, 1 PBU). Colorado’s starting linebackers are not extremely impressive, and there will be some space for Moss and the tight ends (although if Kuithe is matched up against any of these linebackers, someone for Colorado called a bad play). Falo (56.7 with 203 snaps) and Jones (56.3 with 387 snaps) have both played significant minutes, but neither has impressed.
Cornerbacks— Colorado has been required to rotate corners quite a bit. Abrams has played 679 snaps and is highly-rated (71.0 is #2 on defense, behind DT Johnson). His stats are good (47 tackles, 1 TFL, 5 PBU), but not spectacular. The rest of the corners have played intermittently, and it shows up in their ratings: Trujillo (68.1, 391 snaps) is their best cover corner, but struggles in run defense; Perry (62.0, 193 snaps) is the reverse, defending the run well, but struggling against the pass.
Safeties— Because of the struggles and injuries among the corners, Colorado’s safeties have played a lot of snaps. Their top-rated safety is Rakestraw (57.3, 558 snaps). Behind him is Onu (54.8, 721 snaps) then Maddox (54.6, 221 snaps) and Luckett (53.0, 163 snaps). As these ratings make clear, Colorado’s safeties struggle. Maddox is a good run defender but is horrible against the pass. None of them are great against the pass, and several struggle in run support too.
Colorado isn’t good, and they’re particularly bad on defense. Their lone bright spots are one corner and one defensive lineman. That’s going to be a problem against a decent Utah OL with a fantastic RB and QB. Expect both Moss and Kuithe to have a field day.
Here’s the team breakdown for both sides:
Passing Offense:
Utah- 88.4 (#1 in the Pac-12)
CU- 72.7 (#8 in the Pac-12)
Utah is up to #1 passing offense, taking the top spot from Oregon. Utah’s pass blocking rating has gotten even worse (down to 59.5 for last in the conference), but it continues not to matter thanks to Huntley. Colorado is an okay passing team, but not great.
Receiving Offense:
Utah- 77.3 (#3 in the Pac-12, behind USC and WSU)
CU- 71.7 (#7 in the Pac-12)
WSU passed Utah last week thanks to their “defenses not invited” game against OSU. Still, Utah’s receivers are playing well. Colorado, as mentioned above, has two of the best receivers in the conference, but nothing behind them. This will be a test for the secondary, but not as bad as USC or WSU.
Rushing Offense:
Utah- 87.0 (#1 in the Pac-12)
CU- 83.7 (#5 in the Pac-12)
Thanks to Moss’s big week, Utah is back on top in rushing offense. Colorado is also running the ball fairly well, and I expect them to try and run early to see if they can get Shenault loose. As always, I don’t expect it to work. Arizona was a better running team that Colorado, and we remember how that went.
Overall Offense:
Utah- 82.9 (#1 in the Pac-12)
CU- 77.7 (#7 in the Pac-12)
Utah is good through the air and on the ground, with good receivers but some suspect blocking. Colorado is basically the same, but worse.
Run Defense:
Utah- 92.7 (#1 in the Pac-12 and #7 nationally)
CU- 64.9 (#9 in the Pac-12)
Colorado isn’t good at stopping the run, Utah is. This could be a long day for them.
Tackling:
Utah- 81.7 (#2 in the Pac-12)
CU- 73.5 (#7 in the Pac-12)
Utah’s tackling has improved, Colorado’s has been average. That’s not great news for them against one of the best tackle breakers in college football.
Pass Rush:
Utah- 81.9 (#2 in the Pac-12)
CU- 61.2 (#11 in the Pac-12)
Utah is good at rushing the passer, Colorado isn’t. Don’t expect that to change this week.
Pass Coverage:
Utah- 93.1 (#1 in the Pac-12, #2 nationally)
CU- 53.9 (#11 in the Pac-12)
Colorado is almost as bad in coverage as UCLA, but both are terrible. Utah’s great. Expect there to be some openings. Watch for Nacua and Kuithe, as I mentioned, since they’ll likely be matched up against the linebackers and safeties, who are particularly bad.
Overall Defense:
Utah- 94.2 (#1 in the Pac-12)
CU- 60.8 (#12 in the Pac-12)
Yes, PFF’s best Pac-12 defense against PFF’s worst. There’s a reason this is Utah’s widest Vegas spread of the season against an FBS team (including NIU). Expect Utah to move the ball, don’t expect Colorado to do the same.
OVERALL TEAM SCORES:
Utah- 93.1 (#1 in the Pac-12, #7 nationally)
CU- 74.7 (#8 in the Pac-12)
Colorado isn’t good. They’re better on offense than Arizona or UCLA, but are worse on defense. If it weren’t for the cold, I’d say bet the over, but regardless, expect some points for Utah.
ESPN also likes Utah:
ESPN Offensive Efficiency:
Utah- 80.2 (#9 in the nation; #2 in the Pac-12 behind WSU)
CU- 56.0 (#50 in the nation, #6 in the Pac-12)
ESPN Defensive Efficiency:
Utah- 89.9 (#4 in the nation; #1 in the Pac-12)
CU- 38.2 (#94 in the nation, #10 in the Pac-12 ahead of only OSU at #101 and WSU at #108)
Prediction
Colorado isn’t good, but they can move the ball okay. I expect Shenault and/or Brown to get loose a couple of times for big gains. No shutout this week, but Utah moves the ball at will. 42-17.
