After an early slip-up to USC, the University of Utah is playing like a team of destiny. Is 2019 their year to wear the Pac-12 crown or better yet, crack the playoffs? Before all of that can happen, the time has arrived for the game everyone in the Pac-12 had anticipated—although, with Washington’s struggles it’s not what it was expected to be. However, the importance of this game cannot be understated. Historically as well as recently, the Huskies have had Utah’s number. Can the Utes flip the script on Saturday?
Here are the stats for this week’s matchup from Pro Football Focus:
Passing Offense:
Utah- 83.0 (#4 in the Pac-12)
UW- 90.2 (#1 in the Pac-12)
Utah slipped one spot this week, to 4th (behind WSU). Utah is still not pass blocking great (61.5), but luckily it’s not affecting the production too much. UW is leading the Pac-12 in passing and is 3rd in pass blocking.
Receiving Offense:
Utah- 74.1 (#4 in the Pac-12)
UW- 74.5 (#3 in the Pac-12)
UW has good receivers, but not like USC and WSU (the #1 and #2 teams in the PAC 12), and their #1 WR is likely out for the game. Utah’s guys are playing well, and they still don’t have a guy who defenses can focus on. Take out Thompson, then Nacua and TEs will kill you, and vice versa.
Rushing Offense:
Utah- 85.6 (#3 in the Pac-12)
UW- 87.7 (#2 in the Pac-12)
Arizona leads the Pac-12 in rushing (thanks to Tate), with UW and Utah right behind. Again, this grade is with all three backs available, and #2 and #3 are likely out for the Utah game this week, so Ahmed will have to carry the load. He’s been okay doing so (21/119/1 against Cal, 23/95/3 against Zona, 24/140/1 against Oregon), but he hasn’t faced Utah’s defense yet.
Overall Offense:
Utah- 81.0 (#4 in the Pac-12)
UW- 88.9 (#1 in the Pac-12)
Both offenses are playing great football right now. UW is better on offense, but the gap isn’t enormous. Both teams are very balanced and effective through the air and on the ground. But Utah has an advantage that the stats above don’t show, and it’s not just the one named Moss. It’s the defenses. Here are the defensive rankings:
Run Defense:
Utah- 91.9 (#1 in the Pac-12)
UW- 77.2 (#8 in the Pac-12)
Cal was #2 and Moss ran for over 100 yards and nearly 7 ypc. UW is #8, so expect him to have a big day on Saturday.
Tackling:
Utah- 76.2 (#6 in the Pac-12)
UW- 64.4 (#11 in the Pac-12)
Cal could tackle, UW can’t. Not only are they a poor (by PAC 12 standards) run defense, they let people break tackles. Guess who’s good at that? Moss is #4 in the country in yards after contact per attempt (5.27). If UW continues to struggle tackling, he’s going to improve that number this week.
Pass Rush:
Utah- 78.9 (#1 in the Pac-12)
UW- 73.9 (#4 in the Pac-12)
UW is getting pressure pretty well, so if Tyler isn’t 100% he’s going to need to be quick. They also cover well, as the next stat makes clear, so he’s got to be smart. Ludwig will know this, so expect a lot of running this week.
Pass Coverage:
Utah- 94.2 (#1 in the Pac-12)
UW- 87.3 (#3 in the Pac-12)
UW is surprisingly good in coverage, considering what they lost from last year. There won’t be a lot of open WR like there were last week against Cal, so Tyler needs to be smart and accurate.
Overall Defense:
Utah- 94.2 (#1 in the Pac-12)
UW- 86.4 (#3 in the Pac-12)
UW’s defense is very good, better than Cal’s or ASU’s. Don’t expect 35 or 28 this week, particularly because I expect the RBs to get about 40 carries between them. This is a game where running the ball is the way to win.
OVERALL TEAM SCORES:
Utah- 93.5 (#1 in the Pac-12)
UW- 92.3 (#3 in the Pac-12)
UW has struggled more than expected, but they are still a very good team. Luckily for Utah, Eason has lost some weapons both at WR and RB, but he’s still the best QB Utah has faced or is likely to face during the regular season. Luckily he’s not the kind that tends to give the Utes problems (limited mobility), but rather the kind against whom we tend to get 8 sacks. UW’s line is also very good, however, and they can run the ball, so don’t expect a massive sack day this week. Rather expect good coverage, some good runs from Ahmed and some underneath stuff from Eason trying to take the pressure off. Expect Utah to run the ball as much as possible, shorten the game, and try to get out with a lower-scoring win.
ESPN also likes Utah:
ESPN Offensive Efficiency:
Utah- 80.4 (#8 in the nation; #2 in the Pac-12 behind WSU)
UW- 70.6 (#25 in the nation, #6 in the Pac-12 behind WSU, Utah, OSU, USC, and Oregon)
ESPN Defensive Efficiency:
Utah- 88.2 (#5 in the nation; #1 in the Pac-12)
UW- 70.6 (#32 in the nation, #4 in the Pac-12, with Oregon and Cal in between)
Prediction
UW is the best team Utah has faced, but is missing a couple of cogs. That will allow Scalley to play more aggressive with the linebackers, trusting the secondary to handle UW’s #2-6 WR with their #1 guy sidelined. UW’s defense isn’t great at tackling or against the run, and that’s a recipe for a low-scoring disaster. 17-10 Utah.
