Now that we’re at mid-season we have some basis for advanced stats. As such, this week I’ll do two articles. One outlining what ASU lost from last week and what they’re returning, and one that gives the stats for both teams.
Here’s the team stats from Pro Football Focus.
Passing Offense
Utah- 90.7 (#1 in the PAC 12)
ASU- 67.9 (#11 in the PAC 12)
Again, when was the last time Utah had a top HALF passing offense, much less the #1 passing offense. It’s rare. The rankings go back to 2014, and only twice they’ve been ranked #6 (2018 and 2016). Usually they’re worse than that, and sometimes much worse (#12 in 2017, #11 in 2015). ASU also hasn’t been a great passing team every year (#11 in 2014, #6 in 2015, #10 in 2016) but at least once they’ve gotten a good passing game (#3 in 2017).
Receiving Offense
Utah- 73.5 (#4 in the PAC 12)
ASU- 62.6 (#11 in the PAC 12)
Sure, ASU has one good receiver (as I’ll discuss in the other article, he’s not that good), but Utah’s corps is better than ASU’s, significantly.
Rushing Offense
Utah- 86.4 (#2 in the PAC 12)
ASU- 70.7 (#10 in the PAC 12)
This isn’t an unusual spot for Utah, they run the ball well and they always have. It’s bad for ASU, who the past two years has been quite good (#3 in 2017 and #1 last year). The loss of Wilkins and Harry (and others) has hurt the rushing game too, because teams can key on Benjamin, and unlike Moss, if he’s hit early he doesn’t break as many tackles (Moss has 6.1 yards after contact per attempt, Benjamin has 2.85).
Overall Offense
Utah- 81.2 (#3 in the PAC 12)
ASU- 67.9 (#10 in the PAC 12)
As I’ve mentioned before, this is very unusual. The last 3 years Utah has ranked #8 (2018), #10 (2017), and #8 (2016). Having a top-3 offense is amazing. ASU is going the other way, as they were #5 (2018), #5 (2017), and #9 (2016). This is a bad ASU offense, and the article about who they lost explains why. There was a lot of talent on that ASU offense last year that isn’t there anymore, and it’s showing.
Okay, so they’re not great on offense, but maybe ASU is playing stifling defense and the Utah offense is going to struggle. Well, they’re better on defense, but still not amazing:
Run Defense
Utah- 91.1 (#1 in the PAC 12)
ASU- 79.3 (#4 in the PAC 12)
Here’s something ASU does well. They’re decent at stopping the run, and are giving up under 100 yards per game on the ground (91.7). Don’t expect that to continue, but do expect Zack to have to break some tackles. Luckily…
Tackling
Utah- 73.0 (#7 in the PAC 12)
ASU- 69.2 (#10 in the PAC 12)
Both teams are struggling wrapping up, but ASU is worse at it, and that’s a recipe for disaster against Zack Moss.
Pass Rush
Utah- 74.9 (#3 in the PAC 12)
ASU- 58.8 (#11 in the PAC 12)
ASU is not getting pressure, which is good news for Utah. Utah is getting pressure (even if they’re not getting sacks, they’re getting into the backfield on a regular basis)
Pass Coverage
Utah- 93.5 (#2 in the PAC 12)
ASU- 80.6 (#5 in the PAC 12)
ASU’s DBs are doing a decent job, but Utah’s are better. If Daniels struggles with the pressure and throws some picks (and the Utah defense hangs onto them instead of dropping them), this could easily be the difference. Tyler needs to be careful, this is the best coverage team he’s seen so far, but they’re not fantastic.
Overall Defense
Utah- 92.4 (#2 in the PAC 12)
ASU- 78.0 (#7 in the PAC 12)
Utah is better at defense than ASU. ASU is better on D than on O, but not great at either. At least, that’s what PFF thinks.
ESPN agrees for the most part:
ESPN Offensive Efficiency
Utah- 81.5 (#7 in the nation; #2 in the PAC 12 behind WSU)
ASU- 55.9 (#52 in the nation, #9 in the PAC 12)
ESPN Defensive Efficiency
Utah- 84.7 (#8 in the nation; #2 in the PAC 12 behind Oregon)
ASU- 62.7 (#41 in the nation, #5 in the PAC 12)
So ESPN likes ASU a little bit more than PFF (#9 v. #10 on offense, #5 v. #7 on defense) but still isn’t impressed.
I know there has been two years of bad games against ASU, and that the recruiting battles with them have put them into sort of a boogeyman situation for the Utah fanbase. With that said, there’s nothing they do better than Utah, and a lot they do significantly worse. Utah should win comfortably, and not have too much trouble on either side.
Prediction
31-13 for the Utes
