Following a dismal 3-9 finish in 2023, Baylor head coach Dave Aranda is sitting on one of the hottest seats in college football.
Rather than parting ways with Aranda, the Bears made offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes the scapegoat and let him go following the final game of last season.
Beyond firings, it was also announced that Aranda would take over defensive play-calling from defensive coordinator Matt Powledge.
In other words, it's all on Aranda to turn this team around.
Offense
One of the most important moves of the off-season was securing a replacement for Blake Shapen, Baylor's starting QB for the past two seasons, who elected to transfer to Mississippi State following the 2023 season.
To do this, the Bears made a solid transfer portal addition by bringing in Toledo’s Dequan Finn, a three-year starter at QB for the Rockets. The dual-threat QB threw for nearly 7,000 yards, 63 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions while running for over 1,500 yards in his career.
He has a solid group of returning receivers to work with, including Monaray Baldwin and Ketron Jackson Jr., who combined for over 1,000 yards receiving in 2023. He also has Texas State transfer Ashtyn Hawkins as an option, who had 874 yards receiving with the Bobcats last season.
The rush attack was limited in 2023, but all three running backs from last season return, including junior Richard Reese, senior Dominic Richardson, and sophomore Dawson Pendergrass, who combined for over 1,100 yards rushing last season.
Last season’s rebuilt offensive line struggled, but this season, three of the five starters return, and the other two projected starters come with experience from the transfer portal. They lost their best lineman, LG Clark Barrington to the NFL. They also lost LT Elijah Ellis. However, the Bears turned to the transfer portal and brought in PFF’s top-rated FCS offensive lineman G Omar Aigbedion, who started all of last season for Montana State. They also brought in South Carolina's Sidney Fugar, who will start at LG.
Last Saturday, Finn had a bit of a shaky debut in an easy 45-3 victory over FCS Tarleton State, going 14 for 22 for 192 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He showed his explosiveness multiple times running the ball, but he made several dangerous throws and was fortunate to escape with only two turnovers.
Reese and Pendergrass had a near-even split of the carries against the Texans, with Pendergrass being used as the north-to-south back, and Reese as the shifty speed back. Richardson missed the game with an injury, and his status against Utah is still uncertain this week.
Defense
One of 2023's worst defenses may still be in trouble after losing DE TJ Franklin, the team leader in sacks in 2023, DT Gabe Hall, and LB Byron Vaughn to the NFL.
Outside of the three key players that left for the NFL, Baylor brought back most of the starting defense this season, but it's still up to debate whether that's a good thing. The Bears surrendered a Big 12 worst 33.3 points per game last season. The main reason for that was the Bears inability to stop the run, where they surrendered 184.9 yards rushing per game.
The key to the defense turning things around will be super senior LB Matt Jones, who led Baylor with 82 tackles last season, and the most sacks (3) of any returning player. In fact, with the losses of Franklin, Hall, and Vaughn, Jones is the only returning player from last year's team to record more than one sack last season.
The secondary should be the defense's strength, returning both corners and safeties. Junior safeties Devyn Bobby and Devin Lemear were #2 and #3 in tackles last season, and 2nd-Team Freshman All-American CB Caden Jenkins had 3 interceptions in his collegiate debut in 2023.
The Bears brought in several talented defensive players through the transfer portal to add to the depth, including CB Lorando “Snaxx” Johnson, who left Baylor last season for Arkansas and now returns to Waco. They also got two solid starters from Western Kentucky, LB JaQues Evans, and S Kendrick Simpkins, who had an eye-popping 6.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles for the Hilltoppers in 2023.
Overall, the defense looked solid against Tarleton State, but the Texans were without starting quarterback Victor Gabalis. Without their starter, Tarleton State elected to run the ball up the middle for a good chunk of the first half while using backup quarterbacks Jaden Pete and Daniel Greek. Surprisingly, in the second half, Greek was able to lead a few impressive drives, exposing a few weaknesses in the Bears defense.
Summary
With just one game against an FCS opponent under their belts, it's too early to get a good read on who this Baylor team will be this season.
They played well and won convincingly, so they should be a solid test for the Utes. Finn has a history of taking some risks through the air, which sometimes leads to big plays, but can also lead to interceptions.
The Utes had some trouble in the first half against SUU with the QB run game, and they'll need to have that locked down before Finn comes to town, or he could do some serious damage running the ball.
Overall, this "non-conference" conference game should provide a much better barometer for both teams on Saturday, and we'll start to get a betteridea of the trajectory of each team's season.
