With two losses over the last three weeks, the Utes are essentially out of contention to secure a spot in the Pac-12 championship game. While it would take several more significant miracles to unfold over the next few weeks for Utah to find itself competing for a spot, the team will want to finish strong over these last two games.
First up, a formidable Arizona team with a 5-2 conference record that not only beat Oregon State, but nearly knocked off USC and Washington. Additionally, it’s a road game, something that’s been anything but easy for the Utes this season.
Here are the keys to the game:
Replicate the first half against Washington, all game long
For the most part, the passing game has been a challenge for Utah this season without their star quarterback Cam Rising. However, in the first half against Washington, Utah demonstrated that they are certainly capable of still airing it out. Mind you, for some reason they went away from what was working last week. However, against the Wildcats they should look to play that style for close to the entire 60 minutes.
Diving deeper into Arizona’s schedule and seasonal stats, in their three losses, opponents have averaged 248 passing yards per game (235 season average) and eight of the 10 touchdowns the Wildcats have allowed this season were also in these matchups.
Utah needs to revisit what worked against Washington in the first half and do their best to recreate those impact moments against Arizona. Overall, the Wildcats defense is pretty solid, but the passing game is where they’ve given up the most yards and allowed teams to move the chains.
One last thing to note here, Devaughn Vele needs to be the primary target. 145 of Vele’s 482 yards on the season came in one game. He should be over 100 yards or close to it in each of these final few weeks.
The secondary must contain the Arizona passing attack
Another week, another Pac-12 opponent who primarily likes to attack through the air.
Despite losing Jayden De Laura to injury earlier in the season, the Wildcats have received stellar quarterback play from redshirt freshman Noah Fifita. In his first few starts, Fifita threw for nearly 1500 yards at a 76% clip and 14 touchdowns with only four interceptions. He also has stacked up notable victories over Washington State, Oregon State and UCLA in recent weeks.
The primary targets? Tetairoa McMillan with 860 yards and eight touchdowns and Jacob Cowing who has 534 yards and 10 touchdowns.
For the most part, Utah’s secondary is fine, especially in the first two levels of the defense. But once a team hits that third level of coverage amongst the corners, they’ve been beaten consistently in one-one situations.
That cannot happen against the Wildcats and they need to be taken as seriously as anybody else. They’ve got a dangerous offense and gone toe-to-toe with the best in the conference. Beating them will be a challenge, especially if the passing game is set loose.
Prepare to punch the ball in on the ground
Ironically, despite only allowing 994 yards on the ground this season, Arizona has allowed 16 rushing touchdowns. In their three losses, they’ve allowed 10 of those 16 touchdowns while only giving up four receiving touchdowns.
While most opponents have found success moving the chains through the air, they’ve found the end zone more often by pounding the rock. As said, Utah is going to have to pass the ball effectively to win this game, but Ja’Quinden Jackson, Sione Vaki, and Jaylon Glover should have plenty of opportunities inside the Wildcat red zone.
Position Battles
Quarterback
Fifita has been on a tear over the last few weeks as he’s been the Pac-12 freshman of the week in four out of the last five. He’s simply one of those golden recruits whose game immediately translates to college and the Wildcats are in good shape for the next few years.
Running Backs
Similar to the Washington matchup, this is also relatively close with both squads top rushers around 600-700 yards and a handful of contributors with a few hundred as well. A healthy Ja’Quinden Jackson would give Utah the edge, but he just continues to get beat up every single week.
As Utah moves away from Sione Vaki in the backfield, Glover has to step up.
Wide Receivers
There’s been very few weeks where Utah has had the better wide receivers and it's no different against Arizona. With so many changes and uncertainty early in the season, Utah’s receivers haven’t found much consistency. Advantage Wildcats.
Tight Ends
It's very slim but I have to go with the Wildcats here. Outside of a few key plays from Landen King, Utah’s tight ends just haven’t been productive thanks to injuries.
Offensive Line
This is probably a close contest but the Wildcats get the edge on this one. A freshman quarterback doesn’t look like a seasoned veteran without mostly sound protection.
Defensive Line
Utah’s defensive line has been stellar all season and has continued to get better despite mounting injuries. Now mostly healthy with guys like Jonah Elliss, Van Fillinger, Connor O’Toole, and Junior Tafuna, the Utes aren’t going to lose this battle very often. However, the question here is whether or not Fifita will rise to the occasion or if he will be dominated by a veteran line.
Linebackers
Similar to last week, this is a matchup where the Utes aren’t dominantly better. With Lander Barton out for the season, Utah is still very good and should have the edge, but only marginally.
Secondary
Call me crazy but I think the Wildcat’s secondary is better than Utah’s. Against some of the conference's best quarterbacks, they’ve been mostly stellar as they held Caleb Williams to 219 yards, and despite surrendering over 350 yards to Micahel Penix, he didn’t pass for a single TD against Arizona.
Marginal, but I’m taking Arizona here.
Special Teams
There’s not a ton of separation in terms of special teams between these two. Let’s go with a tie and call it good.
