Utah locked up another out-of-conference win for the Pac-12, who is managing to put together an ascendant non-conference season despite the disintegration of the conference that looms at the end of it. The Utes’ victories over Florida and Baylor are an important part of that 20-3 story, and have lead to strong expectations for the conference overall and Utah in particular, who continues to hover just outside the top 10.
Yet for Utah fans, the games themselves have left much to be desired. The signs of dominance were there, in front of fans eyes — long stretches of clean pockets on pass plays, discombobulated opposing offenses, and efficient special teams play. But the points and yards haven’t been coming the way fans (and statistical models) would expect.
Utah’s offense has averaged 5.13 yards per play over their first two games, good for 104th in the nation. In more complex, opponent-adjusted metrics such as ESPN offensive efficiency they are also lagging well behind the Pac-12 pace and in the bottom half of the national rankings.
Utah fans looking for optimism have two easy stories to tell themselves- Utah’s offense has struggled because of the absence of Kuithe and Cam Rising, and further because Coach Whittingham’s first choice for quarterback in Cam’s absence has had struggles of his own.
These stories are relevant, but they aren’t enough to justify optimism about Utah’s chances in the coming weeks. Replacing two star players with average college football players might cost a team as much as eight or nine points, and a dedicated fan wearing crimson-colored classes might be inclined to bump that up to ten. Even with that very generous estimate, Utah is still lagging far behind the offensive pace set by USC (9.32 yards per play, 1st nationally), Washington (9.2, 2nd), Oregon (8.02, 8th), UCLA (7.55, 13th), Oregon State (7.33, 16th), and even Arizona (7.26, 17th). If the Utes continue playing as they are right now, they simply won’t be able to keep up in many, if not most, of their conference games.
It's early, and we’re looking at a small sample size that doesn’t represent the complete look of the team — but there is a lot of work ahead of them if the number 12 Utes want to compete for a division title. The good news is, even what they’ve shown so far is more than enough to handle an opponent like Weber State.
This is what a broken model looks like. Utah is on the losing side of 0 of the possible outcomes this graph represents, and the model stops tracking margin of victory at 49 points. Weber State is a good FCS team, but Utah is a top-25 power conference team and there is simply no comparison. The Utes will win this game by as many points as they care to win it by- what Utah fans should watch for is offensive efficiency. If the first string offense puts up a touchdown on every drive and big yards per play numbers, they will be on pace to blow past the edge of the graph and perform the way Utah fans want to see. If they struggle to put Weber State away early, that’s yet another warning sign that this year’s Utes may not be everything they’ve cracked up to be.
I haven’t seen anything from this team yet that warrants a lot of confidence, and I’m predicting a tighter final result than Utah fans may expect, although certainly not a game with any serious competitiveness.
Utah 48, Weber State 10
