The Utah football team is out of runway. This is the week they put it together and find a way to be title-game-contenders, or this is the week they find themselves in the middle of the pack. The Pac-12 is brutally deep this season, with seven teams more than a touchdown above average and three teams more than two. The Utes are better than playing spoiler, but picking up a second conference loss will make it nearly impossible to catch up with Washington and USC even if the offense finds its stride.

The games down the stretch are just too tough to come from behind in this conference race. The tough road tests start in Los Angeles, but include a trip to Washington and another to face a surprisingly fierce Wildcats squad. The Utes are all but guaranteed a bowl game, but that’s the only thing fans can be certain of.

The Utes are out of runway, but that doesn’t mean they can’t get off the ground. USC is an extremely capable team but one with clear flaws. Utah will have the opportunity to take this one, if they can find a way to make the most of it.

USC has arguably the most explosive, highest-octane offense in the country. They rack up nearly 20 plays a game of 10+ yards and more than 7 20+ yard plays, and have scored more points than any other team in the nation. Their quarterback has thrown six times as many touchdowns as interceptions, and they have three running backs over five yards per carry. They’ll be playing into the teeth of a Utah defense designed to exploit USC’s greatest weakness- havoc plays.

For all their explosiveness, USC makes a tremendous amount of mistakes. They are 93rd in sacks per game and 43rd in tackles for a loss per game, meaning that their backfield is vulnerable to a skilled defensive front. Notre Dame pounced on this weakness, holding the Trojans to just 20 points on the strength of 6 sacks and 5 additional tackles for loss. The Utes are positioned to take similar advantage- they are seventh in the nation in sacks per game and standout Jonah Elliss is on pace to challenge for the single season record in sacks. USC will score on some drives, but Utah should be able to disrupt others and give their offense short fields and the opportunity to take advantage of the Trojan’s soft defensive backfield.

Whether they’ll be able to capitalize on those opportunities- that’s the part that needs to get off the ground. On the road in a hostile environment, I don’t think they’ll be able to do it.

Utah just hasn’t shown the ability to score enough to keep pace with an offense like USC. Without scores off turnovers, it’s hard to see how the Utes make it past the 30 point line and hard to see how they keep USC under that total. USC’s defensive weakness is explosive pass plays, and Utah doesn’t have the right players to make that happen. Without a healthy dose of luck, Utah will keep it close, but won’t be able to win this game.

USC 33, Utah 28